Dramatic events unfolded in Russia on 23-24 June 2023 as the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) Group units began to march towards Moscow after their head, Yevgeny Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) of launching attacks on their camps. The forces retreated after an agreement was reached between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Yevgeny Prigozhin by the evening of 24 June. This Issue Brief discusses Wagner PMC Group and delves on the drivers as well as implications of the Group’s attempted rebellion.
Introduction
On 23 June, the Wagner PMC Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin accused Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu led MoD of attacking “rear camps of the Wagner PMC”.[i] The MoD denied all accusations and referred to them as “informational provocation”.[ii] Following its accusation against the MoD, the PMC Wagner Group units took control of Rostov-on-Don, a city in Southern Russia which shares its border with the Donbas region and forms an important base for Russian troops in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. From Rostov-on-Don, the Wagner units began marching towards Moscow.
Meanwhile, President Putin in a televised address to the citizens of Russia called it a “betrayal” due to “personal interests and inflating ambitions.” He vowed to take strict action against the Group’s leadership for instigating the forces.[iii] His remarks were followed by the lodging of a criminal case by Federal Security Service (FSB) investigators under Article 279 of the Russian Criminal Code against Prigozhin for organizing an “armed mutiny”.[iv] However, a peace deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko by the evening of 24 June itself, which brought an end to the rebellion by the Wagner PMC forces. Following the deal, the troops stopped their march towards Moscow and retreated southwards.
Later, on the evening of June 26 2023, Prigozhin released an audio message on Telegram in which he claimed his forces had marched towards Moscow to express their opposition to the MoD’s actions (alleged attacks on Wagner camps) and had no intention to overthrow the government.[v] Criticizing the MoD for its planning of the Ukraine “special military operation”, he pointed that his forces managed to move past military units that were in their path towards Moscow and covered “the distance equivalent to the distance from the starting point of the Russian forces on February 24, 2022, to Kiev.” He observed that had the first offensive of the Special Military Operation should been carried out by forces like the Wagner group instead of the Russian army, the war would have been over in a day. Through this march, his Group provided to the Russian MoD, “a master class on what should have happened on February 24, 2022”. He concluded by pointing that the forces returned in order to avoid harming fellow Russian soldiers.[vi]
President Putin also addressed the country late night on 26 June and emphasized that the attempted rebellion by the Wagner Group had “united everyone” in the country by bringing all sections of the society together. He noted that “an armed mutiny would have been suppressed in any event” had the peace deal not been brokered by Minsk[vii]. He noted that internal chaos amid the ongoing war in Ukraine would have been cathartic for the Russian people following which he accepted the peace deal as well.
Before discussing the drivers and implications of Wagner group’s rebellion, it is important to outline the background of Wagner PMC as well as Yevgeny Prigozhin. It has been discussed in the following section.
Wagner PMC and Yevgeny Prigozhin
The Wagner Group is a private military company that started operating in 2014 in Ukraine. It is headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian entrepreneur who is known for his investments in the catering industry which includes food contracts in the Russian administration. It is essentially a mercenary group which is driven by profit and is free to work alongside any country that hires it. It is not a single entity but “a complex network of businesses and mercenary groups whose operations have been closely tied to the Russian military and intelligence community.[viii]
Apart from Ukraine, Wagner Group is active in Africa, Middle East and Latin America. Over the last few years, the Group has expanded its operations in Africa. The Group has been able to take advantage of Western withdrawal from the region as it fills the ensuing security vacuum. It is reported to have about 5,000 mercenaries stationed in Africa who are not exclusively Russians but also include Syrians and Libyans, among others.[ix] It is most active in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, Sudan and Libya where it “largely provides combat services, security and training support, and regime protection” to these governments who are known for their tensed relationship with the West.[x]
The Group has played an important role in Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. It is important to note that although the Group had been functioning since 2014, its existence was not officially acknowledged until recently as paramilitary forces are not officially recognised in Russia. Prigozhin went public about his association with the group in September 2022 amid the “battle for Bakhmut” where Wagner troops were deployed.
However, paramilitary groups still remain outside the ambit of legal infrastructure in Russia. This aspect gains importance as we discuss the drivers for Wagner’s mutiny as will be discussed in the subsequent section, the MoD had issued orders on 10 June 2023, to merge Wagner forces with official Russian military forces.
Drivers for the Wagner Group Rebellion on 23 June 2023
Although the Wagner Group had been active for several years as noted earlier, it came into prominence amid the battle for Bakhmut in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War since February 2022. As it assumed a wider role in Ukraine, rifts between Wagner Group and the Russian MoD also began to widen. Prigozhin became critical of Defence Ministry’s planning and often complained about the lack of sufficient military supplies for his forces. The first public signs of these rifts were palpable in early May this year when Prigozhin released a video surrounded by Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut and accused Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu of not ensuring enough ammunition to his soldiers. He also threatened to withdraw his forces but the discord was settled later following which the group was able to gain full control in Bakhmut by the end of May.
The immediate trigger, however, came in the wake of an order by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that called for all "volunteer detachments" at the front in the Ukraine war to sign contracts with the MoD. This was applicable to Wagner Group as well but the proposition was not acceptable to Prigozhin. Things took a serious turn on 23 June when Prigozhin accused the MoD of attacking his camps. Soon afterwards, his units captured the strategically located Rostov-on-Don which is known for being “a crucial command and logistical hub” for the Russian army. The Headquarters of the Russian Southern Military District, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is engaged Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is situated in the city.[xi] The forces then began their journey North towards Moscow via the city of Voronezh on the M4 highway. However, a peace deal was negotiated between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko within 24 hours due to which the rebellion was revoked in return for security guarantees for Prigozhin and his troops.
Map: From Rostov to Moscow
Source: Wion[xii]
A Peace Deal Brokered by Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was among the first few to speak with President Putin in the aftermath of the Wagner PMC rebellion.[xiii] President Lukashenko called for a peaceful solution to the crisis to avoid the violence that would have inevitably taken place if the protesting units had continued their advance towards Moscow. This proposal was supported by the Russian government as well.[xiv]According to an official release by the Belarus government, President Putin and President Lukashenko had agreed on joint actions to defuse the Wagner Group crisis. Following this, “the Belarusian President additionally clarified the situation using his own channels and held negotiations with the Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin with the approval of the Russian President. After day long negotiations with Prigozhin, he was able to reach a peace deal with the head of the Wagner group where both sides agreed to avoid internal conflict. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted Alexander Lukashenko’s proposal on stopping the advance of Wagner’s armed units in Russia’s territory to de-escalate tensions [xv] in return for security guarantees for his employees and himself.
It has been reported top Russian officials including the Kremlin’s Chief of Staff Anton Vaino, the Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and Russia’s Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov were part of the final round of negotiations[xvi] The parties were in agreement with respect to avoiding a “bloodbath in Russia’s territory”[xvii]
What Next?
Under the peace deal, Prigozhin was given the option to relocate to Belarus to evade the charge of inciting his forces against the Russian government. The agreement also makes provisions for the return of the mercenaries of the Wagner group to their camps. These forces have the option to sign contracts with the Russian MoD, provided they were not part of the rebelling sections. Those who sign the contracts would continue to be deployed in the ongoing war against Ukraine under the aegis of Russian MoD. However, mercenaries who do not join would not be prosecuted in recognition of their services in the Ukraine War and could relocate to Belarus. In his address to people, President Putin stressed on this aspect and stressed "the promise that I made will be fulfilled. I repeat: the choice is yours but I am sure that it will be the choice of Russian soldiers who have realized their tragic mistake”.[xviii]
Prigozhin is now believed to be in Belarus.[xix] Since he has not signed the contract with MoD, Wagner Group’s participation in Ukraine has been officially terminated. Meanwhile, Russia's security services are also investigating whether Western or Ukrainian intelligence agencies were involved in instigating the Wagner Group forces against the Russian government. [xx]
The termination of Wagner PMC in Ukraine has increased speculations about the spillover effects of Wagner-Kremlin decoupling for the group’s operations in Africa. In this respect, Russia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov has cleared that Wagner’s activities in Africa would continue. He added that apart from its relations with Wagner, the governments of the CAR and Mali have official contacts with the leadership and several military personnel are working in the region as instructors. [xxi]
Conclusion: Wagner rebellion and its Implications
Although short-lived, Wagner PMC’s attempted rebellion has raised several questions about organization of Russian forces in Ukraine. The implications of the rebellion on Russian combat operations in Ukraine remain to be seen as also how Wagner and Prigozhin continue to function from Belarus. However, there are growing security concerns in Poland and the Baltic states about Wagner’s presence in their vicinity. Since these states are members of NATO and protected by Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty, the West-Russia tensions are likely to increase further in the coming months.
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*Dr. Himani Pant, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Message from Yevgeny Prigozhin, Telegram,https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1283; English translation available https://t.me/russiawire/3235
[ii] Statement by the Ministry of Defence on Telegram, MoD Russia,24 June 2023, https://t.me/mod_russia_en/8044 (Accessed on 24 June 2023)
[iii]Address to citizens of Russia, The Kremlin, 24 June, 2023,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71496, (Accessed on 24 June 2023)
[iv] Investigation into case surrounding Prigozhin continuing , 26 June 2023, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1638327 ( Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[v]Message from Yevgeny Prigozhin, Telegram, https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304, (Accessed on 26 June 2023), English translation available at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/26/we-gave-a-master-.(Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[vi]Prigozhin’s first public statement since Wagner Group’s 24-hour rebellion, Meduza, 26 June 2013, https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/26/we-gave-a-master-class?utm_source=email&utm_medium=briefly&utm_campaign=2023-06-27.(Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[vii]Address to citizens of Russia, The Kremlin, 26 June 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71528.(Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[viii] William Rampe What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa? Council On Foreign Relations, 23 May 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa#:~:text=Russia's%20Wagner%20Group%20has%20intervened,Moscow's%20influence%20across%20the%20continent. (Accessed on 30 June 2023)
[ix] Nosmot Gbadamosi, Will Wagner Stay in Africa?, Foreign Policy Magazine, 28 June 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/28/will-wagner-stay-in-africa/ (Accessed on 30 June 2023)
[x] Ibid., note Vii
[xi]Institute of War, Ukraine Conflict Updates, 26 June 2023, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.(Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xii]https://www.wionews.com/world/live-russia-accuses-mercenary-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-of-mutiny-608034 Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xiii]Telephone conversation with President of TurkiyeRecepTayyipErdogan, The Kremlin, 24 June 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71501 . Accessed on 24 June 2023)
[xiv]Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with RT television,MFA Russia, June 26, 2023, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1893510/. ( Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xv]Press release by the President of the Republic of Belarus, President of the Republic of BelarusPresident of the republic of Belarus, 24 June 2023, https://president.gov.by/en/events/soobshchenie-press-sluzhby-prezidenta-respubliki-belarus-1687631215. ( Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xvi] An inside look into the Kremlin’s attempted negotiations with Prigozhin and why it took Lukashenko to put an end to the rebellion, Meduza,26 June, 2023 https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/25/putin-was-nowhere-to-be-found?utm_source=email&utm_medium=briefly&utm_campaign=2023-06-27.(Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xvii] Press release by the President of the Republic of Belarus, President of the Republic of BelarusPresident of the republic of Belarus, 24 June 2023, https://president.gov.by/en/events/soobshchenie-press-sluzhby-prezidenta-respubliki-belarus-1687631215. ( Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xviii] Putin thanks Russians for unity, vows to fulfill promise to Wagner fighters, TASS, 27 June 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1638871. ( Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xix] Kremlin has no information on PMC Wagner founder Prigozhin’s current whereabouts, TASS, 29 June 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1640305 (Accessed on 29 June 2023)
[xx] Russian security services investigating possible Western intel hand in mutiny — Lavrov, 26 June 2023, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1638647.(Accessed on 27 June 2023)
[xxi] Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with RT television, Moscow, June 26, 2023, MFA Russia, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1893510/