Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Ambassador Li Hui visited Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany, the EU headquarters in Brussels, and Russia, from May 15 to 26, 2023, to have discussions on the political settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.[i] The selected countries for consultation are considered “key stakeholders” in Europe by China for resolving the crisis. Amb. Li’s trip has been referred to as an example of China’s shuttle diplomacy.[ii] It may be noted that during a telephonic conversation on April 26, 2023, President Xi Jinping told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that China will send a Special Representative to visit Ukraine and other countries to push for a political settlement to the ‘Ukraine crisis’.
Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought new challenges not only for the region but also for the whole world. A number of countries have attempted to contribute their part in resolving the conflict. As a responsible and rising power, India has maintained a principled position on the ongoing conflict. It has repeatedly emphasised that this is not an era of war and “India is ready to contribute to any peace efforts”.[iii] Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with President Zelensky on the sidelines of the G-7 Summit in Hiroshima on May 21, 2023, and conveyed India’s clear support for dialogue and diplomacy to find a way forward. Prime Minister Modi has also spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin a few times since the beginning of the conflict.
Indonesia proposed a Peace Plan to diffuse the Ukraine crisis during the Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore from 2 to 4 June 2023. A delegation of African leaders and officials from six countries visited Ukraine and Russia, and held separate peace talks with the top leadership of the two countries from June 16 to 17, 2023.
In this background, the paper aims to analyse objective and outcome of Chinese Special Representative’s visit as well as responses of the countries visited by Amb. Li towards China’s role as a “mediator” or promoter of peace talks.
I
Objective and outcome of China’s Special Representative’s visit
Seemingly, the visit had two main objectives. First to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table with China as a mediator or facilitator of talks and; second to bridge differences with Europe. Chinese media has highlighted that the objective of Amb. Li trip was “seeking common ground while preserving differences”.[iv] The Chinese government has maintained that the Special Representative’s trip was successful as the receiving parties attached high importance to the visit and recognized China’s positive role in promoting talks for peace. Prof. Wang Yiwei, Director of the Centre for EU Studies at Renmin University of China, states that “Li's major mission on the shuttle-diplomacy trip was to find consensus from different or even confrontational stances over the conflict”.[v]
The trip can also be considered as a follow-up of China’s Position Paper on “the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis” issued in February 2023. The Position Paper consists of 12 points, which includes respecting the sovereignty of all countries, abandoning the Cold War mentality, ceasing hostilities, resuming peace talks, resolving the humanitarian crisis, among others.[vi] Amb. Li referred to the China’s Position Paper several times during his trip and highlighted it as a basis for promoting talks.
On June 2, 2023, Amb. Li briefed foreign diplomats in Beijing on his trip and stated that “China is ready to do anything that is conducive to deescalating the situation and promoting negotiations”.[vii] Following the briefing, some media reports even concluded that China is considering another visit by its Special Representative as the recent trip produces no tangible outcome.[viii]
II
China’s attempt to mediate between Ukraine and Russia
Does Ukraine see China’s role as “Pro-Russian neutrality”?
Amb. Li visited Ukraine on May 15 and 16, 2023. He was the most senior Chinese diplomat to visit Ukraine, since Russia launched its “special military operation” against Ukraine in February 2022. He met top leadership of Ukraine including President Zelensky and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. As per the readout from Ukraine, the two sides discussed “topical issues of cooperation between Ukraine and China”, as well as “ways to stop Russian aggression”.[ix]The Ukrainian side “emphasised that Ukraine does not accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict”.[x]
China has denied media reports that Beijing wanted to persuade Ukraine to “give up territory to Moscow as price of peace”.[xi] Amb. Li stated that “there is no panacea for defusing the crisis. It requires all parties to do their share, build up mutual trust, and create enabling conditions for a ceasefire and peace talks.”[xii]
China is trying to project itself as “neutral” to the Russia-Ukraine conflict but many in Ukraine do not find it correct as it maintains a special relationship with Russia. Alexander Merezhko, a top foreign policy official in Ukraine, said that “this is a pro-Russian neutrality, as China implements the vassalisation of Russia…”.[xiii] The fact remains that there are serious differences between the Chinese and Ukrainian perception of the political settlement of the conflict.
Moscow: Comprehensive strategic partnership
Amb. Li visited Moscow on May 26, 2023, and held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other officials. Amb. Li maintained that China will strengthen exchanges and dialogue with Russia and all other parties on the basis of China’s Position Paper on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis. Russia appreciated China for its sincere efforts to promote the peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis and said that it will continue to strengthen communication and coordination with China.[xiv] The Russian Foreign Minister also conveyed the Special Representative that there are “serious obstacles” to resuming peace talks.
It is well known that Russia has not fully endorsed China’s Position Paper on Ukraine. Russia maintains that its constructive proposals were rejected by the countries of the West, and refers to Ukraine’s complete departure from today’s realities.
During his trip to Russia in March 2023, President Xi Jinping said that “Consolidating and developing China-Russia relations is a strategic choice made by China based on its own fundamental interests.”[xv] China’s backing for Russia could also be seen in the context of its strategic contestations with America. The China’s Position Paper on Ukraine also talks about “opposing Cold War mentality”. An expert finds that this “is a code word for the Sino-Russian joint opposition to the western policies and has been cobbled up since July 2001 in strategic partnership that became recently a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in a new era’”.[xvi]
III
China’s attempt to bridge differences with Europe
Amb. Li visited Poland, France, Germany, and the EU headquarters in Brussels, from May 17 to 25, 2023. In Poland, he held discussions with Undersecretary of State (Deputy Foreign Minister) Wojciech Gerwel. He was received by Director General of Political and Security Affairs at the French Foreign Ministry Frédéric Mondoloni in Paris, while German Federal Foreign Office State Secretary Andreas Michaelis met him in Berlin. At Brussels, he held discussions with Frederic Bernard, head of Cabinet of President of European Council, and Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service. In all these meetings, Amb. Li highlighted that China is ready to maintain communication on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and it supports establishing balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture to provide an enduring guarantee for peace in Europe.[xvii]
Amb. Li emphasised on early ceasefire and resumption of peace talks.[xviii] He also referred to the first principle of the Chinese Position Paper regarding respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity of China. However, China needs to introspect about it, as the country itself has not always adhered to the principle.
Amb. Li referred to China-France joint statement signed during the visit of French President Macron to Beijing in April 2023 and highlighted the common position during his press briefing (on June 2, 2023), which is as follows: “The two countries support any effort to foster a restoration of peace in Ukraine on the basis of international law and the goals and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”[xix] He tried to build a consensus citing the fundamental principles of UN. However, there are other important issues from European perspective.
Europe’s perception of China’s role
China’s relationship with Europe has deteriorated in recent times, especially over the issue of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some experts have argued that EU’s strategic positioning towards China is undergoing a fundamental shift from a “partner” to a “systemic rival”.[xx] In this background, the visit was an attempt from China to bridge the differences with Europe.
There are other issues of controversy in Europe. China’s Ambassador to France Lu Shaye said during a television interview that former Soviet countries do not have “effective status in international law”. This was received with sharp reactions from countries in the region. Amb. Lu made the remarks in response to a question on whether Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, was part of Ukraine. Amb. Lu said, “Even these ex-Soviet countries don’t have an effective status in international law because there was no international agreement to materialize their status as sovereign countries.[xxi] The Chinese Embassy in France later said that Amb. Lu’s comments were “not a statement of policy, but an expression of personal views”.[xxii]
By and large European countries have been sceptical about China’s position on Ukraine and its role of mediator for political settlement of the conflict. EU Foreign Affairs chief Josep Borrell has said that EU’s relations with China “will not develop normally if China does not push Russia to withdraw from Ukraine”.[xxiii] A report by the Wall Street Journal highlighted that China’s peace plan carries a clear message that “the US allies in Europe should assert their autonomy”, and during his trip Amb. Li “promoted a ceasefire that would leave its ally Russia occupying parts of Ukraine”.[xxiv] China’s Foreign Ministry has rejected the report.
Conclusion
China’s shuttle diplomacy on Ukraine has highlighted that all parties favoured negotiations and dialogue for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. Amb. Li noted that neither side has shut the door for peace talks. However, the fact remains that there was hardly any concrete outcome except the countries reiterating their respective known positions. China could not build a consensus or put forward any acceptable proposal on political settlement or peace in Ukraine. Therefore, it could be said that China’s shuttle diplomacy on Ukraine has not achieved the desired objectives.
*****
*Dr. Sanjeev Kumar, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i]Li Hui has been China's special envoy for Eurasian Affairs since 2019. Previously, he worked as China’s Ambassador to Kazakhstan (1997–1999), and China's Ambassador to Russia (2009–2019).
[ii]Shuttle diplomacy is broadly known as “mediated communication” in international relations conducted by a third party. China has appointed 15 Special Envoys/Representatives in President Xi Jinping’s era beginning from 2013 for formal and informal negotiations with countries such as Afghanistan, Myanmar, North Korea and Syria, among others, and for issues ranging from conflicts to climate change.
[iii] "I Assure You...": PM Modi to Ukraine President in First Meet Since War, available at https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pm-modi-meets-ukraine-president-zelensky-for-the-first-time-since-russias-invasion-4051293, accessed on 15 June 2023
[iv]“Chinese special envoy's shuttle diplomacy on Ukraine”, available at https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-05-29/News-analysis-Chinese-special-envoy-s-shuttle-diplomacy-on-Ukraine-1kccOjUDrOg/index.html, accessed on 15 June 2023
[v] Ibid
[vi]Foreign Ministry of the PRC,“China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, February 24, 2023, Beijing, available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html, accessed on 28 February 2023
[vii] Foreign Ministry of the PRC, “Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui Holds a Briefing”, available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/202306/t20230606_11090492.html, accessed on 12 June 2023
[viii]Reuters, “China weighs next Ukraine peace mission after first yields little progress”, available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/neither-ukraine-nor-russia-have-shut-door-talks-china-envoy-2023-06-02, accessed on 10 June 2023
[ix] “Pro-Russian neutrality: How Ukraine sees China’s emerging role”, available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18/how-ukraine-views-chinas-role-in-peace-settlement, accessed on 15 June 2023
[x]“Ukraine tells China envoy it will not give up territory to Russia as price of peace, The Guardian, available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/ukraine-tells-china-envoy-it-will-not-give-up-territory-to-russia-as-price-of-peace#:~:text=1%20month%20old-,Ukraine%20tells%20China%20envoy%20it%20will%20not%20give%20up,Russia%20as%20price%20of%20peace&text=Ukraine's%20for
[xi] Ibid
[xii] Foreign Ministry of the PRC, “Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui Visits Ukraine”, available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202305/t20230530_11086121.html, accessed on 15 June 2023
[xiii]“Pro-Russian neutrality: How Ukraine sees China’s emerging role”, available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18/how-ukraine-views-chinas-role-in-peace-settlement, accessed on 15 June 2023
[xiv]Foreign Ministry of the PRC, “Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui Holds Meetings and Talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Others”,available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202305/t20230530_11085801.html,accessed on 15 June 2023
[xv] Xinhua, Chinese FM expounds on Xi's state visit to Russia, available at http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2023-03/23/content_85186237.htm,accessed on 12 June 2023
[xvi] Srikanth Kondapalli,“Xi’s Moscow Visit: A Formidable Force Against the West?”,available at https://www.impriindia.com/insights/xis-moscow-visit-and-the-west/, accessed on 15 June 2023
[xvii]Foreign Ministry of the PRC, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui Holds Talks with Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland Wojciech Gerwel,available at http://in.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgxw/202304/t20230426_11066785.htm,accessed on 18 June 2023
[xviii] China's special envoy meets German diplomat on Ukraine, bilateral ties in Berlin, available at https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-05-25/China-s-special-envoy-meets-German-diplomat-on-Ukraine-bilateral-ties-
1k5LjAI6xd6/index.html#:~:text=Chinese%20Special%20Representative%20on%20Eurasian%20Affairs%20Li%20Hui%20on%20Wednesday,relations%20between%20China%20and%20Germany, accessed on 18 June 2023
[xix] Joint statement by the French Republic and the People’s Republic of China, available at https://hongkong.consulfrance.org/Joint-statement-by-the-French-Republic-and-the-People-s-Republic-of-China, accessed on 18 June 2023
[xx] Yuan Li andZhigao He, “The Remaking of China–Europe Relations in the New Era of US–China Antagonism”, Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2022, available at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-022-09792-5, accessed on 17 June 2022
[xxi]“Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don’t exist”, available athttps://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk/index.html, accessed on 15 June 2023
[xxii] Ibid
[xxiii] China’s special envoy met Zelensky during two-day Ukraine visit, Beijing says, available at https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/17/china/china-special-envoy-ukraine-europe-peace-talks-intl-hnk/index.html, accessed on 15 June 2023
[xxiv]“Europe Rebuffs China’s Efforts to Split the West in Pushing Ukraine Cease-Fire”, The Economist, available at https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pushing-ukraine-cease-fire-gets-cool-reception-in-europe-614774dd,accessed on 15 June 2023