The 14 May 2023, general elections to Thailand’s lower house of parliament, the House of Representatives, saw a voter turnout of more than 74 per cent of the total electorate. The formation of the government is not easy, owing to the mandate that resulted in none of the contesting political parties securing a simple majority to head an administration. The impediments relate to forming a viable coalition between political parties of various hues and also includes constitutional and procedural aspects of Thailand’s electoral process.
Table I: Tentative Results of Thailand’s Genera Election in 2023
Source: Thailand General Elections Results, The Nation. 15 May 2023, https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40027666, accessed on 15 May 2023
According to numbers as available in the media, the single largest part is Phak Kao Klai (Move Forward Party), with 151 seats, followed by Pheu Thai ('For Thais Party), with 141 seats. Prime Minister, Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha’s United Thai Nation Party secured a total of 36 seats, while the Palarang Pracharat Party, led by the incumbent Deputy Prime Minister, Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, and Chan-o-cha’s deputy until the elections, won 40 seats. However, the third-largest seat share in the lower house with 71 seats has been secured by the Bhumjaithai Party, while the rest of the seats are shared by others. (See Table I for the breakdown of the possible election results.)
The Electoral Process
The existing elections system is a result of the 2017 Constitution that was drafted by the administration of Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha. This new constitution is reminiscent of the polity of Thailand in the 1960s, which in essence was an alliance between the palace and the military.[i] It is this relationship between the palace and the military that, along with the bureaucracy, has come to be the bedrock of Thailand’s politics. It may be noted that since the introduction of constitutional monarchy in 1932, the nation seeing as many as twenty constitutions or charters.[ii]
The House of Representatives, the Lower House, is made up of 500 seats, of which 400 are elected on the first past the post, and the remaining 100 seats are allotted on the ‘party list’ under the propositional representation system. Owing to this system, the votes that parties secure in directly elected constituency seats’ need not be reflected to the same extent in party-list seats.[iii]
However, the formation of the government is not solely decided by the Lower House but also involves the 250-strong Senate, the upper house, whose members were nominated by the National Council for Peace and Order. Thus, the incoming Premier would have to secure a simple majority of 376 votes, either jointly from both houses or secure the same number exclusively from the Lower House of Parliament. Currently, in the House of Representatives, there is a slim chance for any party or coalition to garner the requisite 376 votes to form a government without the participation of the Senate.
From a legal perspective, the Election Commission has up to two months since the day of polling, in this case 13 July, to officially certify/declare the election results. Following this, the House of Representatives would elect a new Speaker, who in turn would call for the Parliament to vote for the Prime Minister and Cabinet. The new government will assume office in August.[iv] Until such time, the nation would be administered by a care-taking government, presently head by Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, who was the Deputy Prime Minister under Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha.
However, the person who is to become Prime Minister is solely not based on parliamentary majority that is secured. Even prior to general elections, every contesting political party are to provide a list of up to three prime ministerial candidates for the parliament to elect. This adds another level to the election process, which comes with its own set of dynamics as not all 750 members of parliament can be considered to the office of the Prime Minister, as the eligible candidates are limited to those who have been identified prior to the general elections.
Owing to this elaborate process, there can be uncertainty till the final process is concluded in August. For one, the Election Commission is yet to certify the final results and its decision on violations of election norms can result in either shifting the party list seats or even fresh elections in select constituencies.
Internal Contradictions and political brinkmanship
Currently, the three top parties, Phak Kao Klai, Pheu Thai, and Bhumjaithai Party, according to the unofficial results, share between them 363 members of Parliament. The Bhumjaithai Party, with its right-of-centre posturing, was a junior partner in the outgoing Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha government and is thus seen as representing the establishment. Phak Kao Klai and Pheu Thai share a similar ideology of being progressive and liberal. They also share a similar voter base, though Phak Kao Klai is seen to be more popular with the nation’s youth, which can result in an alliance between the two undercutting one another in the foreseeable future can happen.
Phak Kao Klai has to factor in the legal question over the alleged ownership of shares in a defunct broadcasting corporation by Pita Limjaroenrat, which, according to existing rules, is a cause for disqualification not only of his candidature but also of the party. Second issue is Pita Limjaroenrat’s stated position of revisiting the lese-majeste law, under which any word or act that demeans the dignity of the office/institution of the monarch is a criminal offence, and in the case of Thailand, and this law is stringently enforced as the King is the pillar of Thai identity. Along with this is the fact that the Phak Kao Klai does not have an alternative Prime Ministerial candidate, as it submitted only the name of Pita Limjaroenrat, thus limiting the party’s additional room for political manoeuvring.
Another notable prime ministerial aspirant is Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai. Paetongtarn is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra and the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, both former Prime Ministers whose respective governments were eased out of office in the 2006 and 2014 coups, respectively. Resultantly, Shinawatras have rebranded themselves thrice in the past two decades while still retaining their electoral base. The party may consider working with the Bhumjaithai Party to form the government.
Apart from this, the possibility of a of either Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan or someone else becoming Prime Minster cannot be ruled out. However, all this will now hinge on how events play themselves out in the coming weeks, beginning with the official declaration of results and concluding with a vote in Parliament.
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*Dr. Sripathi Narayanan is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Thailand’s deepening authoritarian rule, East Asian Forum, 30 January 2018,
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/01/30/thailands-deepening-authoritarian-rule/, accessed on May 10, 2023.
[ii] “Constitutional history of Thailand”, Constitution Net, https://constitutionnet.org/sites/default/files/2017-05/CONSTITUTION+OF+THE+KINGDOM+OF+THAILAND+(B.E.+2560+(2017)).pdf, accessed on April 5, 2023.
[iii] Jacob I. Ricks, Thailand’s 2019 Vote: The General’s Election, Singapore Management University, 2019
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4331&context=soss_research, page 447, accessed on May 20, 2023.
[iv] Historical win Faces hurdles, Bangkok Post, May 16, 2023,
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2571232/historic-win-faces-hurdles, accessed on May 16, 2023.