During the Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore between 2 and 4 June 2023, Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto proposed a peace plan to defuse the Ukrainian crisis. The proposal called for a ceasefire based ‘on present positions’, followed by a demilitarised zone of 15 kilometres between the belligerent forces. This is to be followed by a referendum in the disputed areas that would be overseen by the United Nations (UN). Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto also said that the sanctity of the demilitarised zone would be guaranteed by a UN peacekeeping mission, and to this end, his nation is willing to contribute units.
The Ukrainians, outrightly rejected the Indonesian proposal as it ‘sounds like a Russian plan’ and not an initiative by Indonesia. The Ukrainian Foreign Office called for the unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.
The Defence Minister’s proposal is in line with a similar effort that Indonesia initiated in 2022, when Indonesia held the presidency of the G20. In June–July 2022, Joko Widodo, the President of Indonesia, visited both Moscow and Kyiv and extended the good offices of his nation to play the role of a peace broker.
Why call for peace in Ukraine?
This initiative by the Indonesian Defence Minister was primarily motivated by socio-economic considerations. Minster Prabowo Subianto pointed out that this conflict had already adversely affected the global economy and raised concerns about food security in a number of nations. In the case of Southeast Asia, prior to the outbreak of hostilities in Europe, the region depended to a considerable extent on Russian wheat and fertilisers. The prolongation of the conflict would continue to have an adverse impact on Southeast Asian nations.
However, as the current Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia’s concerns are not solely limited to the socio-economic impact of the conflict but also to potential developments closer to home. One of the issues of concern for Jakarta is the question of stability in the Indo-Pacific region and in ASEAN too. This is so because the region in recent times has witnessed heightened tensions. The same was also reflected in the Dialogue.
For instance, the Chinese Defence Minister, Li Shangfu, marking his first external engagement after assuming office earlier in the year, raised concerns over the stability of the Indo-Pacific region during the Shangri-La Dialogue. Minister Shangfu, making a veiled remark at the United States, has said that:
“NATO-like (alliances) in the Asia-Pacific are a way of kidnapping regional countries and exaggerating conflicts and confrontations, which will only plunge the Asia-Pacific into a whirlpool of disputes and conflicts”[i]
On his part, the American Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, did mention in some depth the nature of the security partnership that Washington was perusing in the region. To this end, he did specifically mention the US’s “staunch allies such as Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand”. And then mentioned India, Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam as valued partners.[ii] The Secretary also said that:
“the whole world has a stake in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait—the whole world. The security of commercial shipping lanes and global supply chains depends on it. And so does freedom of navigation worldwide. But make no mistake: conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating”.[iii]
It is this posturing that is of concern for Indonesia, for any major power tensions in the region would directly impinge on ASEAN and may undermine the ‘ASEAN centrality’ in the Indo-Pacific Region. For Jakarta, it is ASEAN’s centrality in the Indo-Pacific that is of foremost importance.
Defence Ministers Meeting
After the conclusion of the ASEAN Defence Minister’s Meeting on 8 June, it was announced that all ten nations of ASEAN will be participating in the first joint ASEAN military drills in the South China Sea in September.[iv] Of note here is that Myanmar, too, will be participating and thus reflecting on ASEAN unity in addressing issues that are of concern for the regional bloc, as a regional bloc. The joint ASEAN military drill in the South China Sea will also see observer participation of Timor-Leste, which is expected to become a member of this bloc in the future.
The proposed exercise comes at a time when China has been assertive in these waters, which is detrimental to the stability of the region. According to Indonesia, the exercise would provide additional impetus for ‘ASEAN centrality’.
It is in this light that the peace proposal by Indonesia’s Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto in the Shangri-La Dialogue is to be seen. The proposal was not so much an initiative to end the ongoing conflict as it is an effort by Jakarta to articulate both Indonesia’s and ASEAN’s positions in the international arena on issues of concern for them. This, in turn, also means that on issues and developments in eastern Asia and thus the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN cannot be ignored by competing powers.
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*Dr. Sripathi Narayanan is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] China defence minister warns against 'NATO-like' alliances in Asia-Pacific, Chanel News Asia, June 4, 2023, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-defence-minister-li-shangfu-shangri-la-dialogue-3537221, accessed on June 12, 2023.
[ii] 'A Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific': Remarks by Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III at the Shangri-La Dialogue, US Department of Defence, June 2, 2023,
https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3415839/a-shared-vision-for-the-indo-pacific-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-au/, accessed on June 9, 2023.
[iii] 'A Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific': Remarks by Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III at the Shangri-La Dialogue, US Department of Defence, June 2, 2023,
https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3415839/a-shared-vision-for-the-indo-pacific-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-au/, accessed on June 9, 2023.
[iv] ASEAN to hold first joint military drills in South China Sea, Channel News Asia, June 8, 2023, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/south-china-sea-asean-hold-first-joint-military-drills-3548521, accessed on June 12, 2023.