In early April 2023, news started appearing in media that Saudi Arabia is likely to invite President Bashar al-Assad to Arab League[i] Summit to be held on May 19, 2023, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. President Assad received an invitation from Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz on May 10, 2023. President Assad participated in the Summit and stated that “we stand together against the movement of darkness,”[ii] referring to the extremist elements in Syria that wanted to dislodge Assad’s regime. Arab States welcomed Syria’s return to the League and issued a joint statement at the Summit in which they completely rejected the formation of armed militias and ensured the intensification of joint efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis.[iii] President Assad’s attendance has marked the most significant development in Syria’s rehabilitation in the Arab World since it was suspended from the League in 2011 following the brutal crackdown on protestors by Assad’s regime. A regional heavyweight, Saudi Arabia, which once backed the Syrian rebel groups against Assad’s regime, has now reversed its stance, followed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, and Jordan. The Saudi regime took this initiative to find a ‘political solution’ for ending the Syrian crisis related to the return of Syrian refugees, drug trafficking (Captagon[iv] trade), and Syria’s political and economic reconstruction. To initiate the reconciliation process, Arab States led by Saudi Arabia and Jordan held two consultative meetings. On April 14, 2023, the Saudi regime hosted a meeting in Jeddah with Foreign Ministers from Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which included the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait, to discuss Syria’s return to the Arab League. Later, Jordan hosted Foreign Ministers from Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt on May 2, in which the Ministers agreed on a framework called the “Jordanian Initiative” that aimed to bring Syria back into the Arab League and work towards ending the political crisis that resulted in the deaths of more than half a million people. In this context, the paper focuses on the re-integration of Syria into the Arab fold and its implications on the region.
What led to Syria’s reintegration into Arab League?
Arab Spring in 2011 unleashed the most durable challenge to the longevity of the Arab regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria. The downfall of the Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (Tunisia), Hosni Mubarak (Egypt), and Muammar Ghaddafi (Libya) threatened the survival of President Assad’s regime. Assad faced the various opposition groups (Muslim Brotherhood, Kurdish fighters, foreign soldiers and mercenaries supported by external actors, and Islamic State) and the country descended into a civil war in which millions of people became refugees and thousands of them died. Nevertheless, Assad was victorious in maintaining control in the country through the state’s security and intelligence agencies. However, international organizations such as the United Nations Human Rights Council, International Commission of Jurists, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Freedom House accused Assad of human rights violations, brutal state repression, and corruption. Notably, in November 2011, Arab League suspended Syria’s membership because Assad failed to end the bloodshed caused by brutal government crackdowns on the pro-democracy opposition, including Muslim Brotherhood. Besides, the US, European Union, and the Arab League imposed financial and political sanctions on Syria.[v] Particularly, the US Caesar Act[vi] of 2019 imposed wide-ranging sanctions that restricted individuals, companies, or governments from economic activities assisting Assad’s war effort. The act rendered the entire economy untouchable.[vii]
External players like Russia and Iran have consistently supported Assad through military and economic assistance. Since 2015, Russia provided massive air power (S-400 Air Defense System) to Syrian and Iranian-backed ground forces against the rebel forces, expanding Assad’s territorial control and solidifying the regime’s hold on power. Russia used its veto powers at the United Nations Security Council to protect Syria. Besides, Iran’s military, economic, and political ties with Syria drastically expanded in the last decade. Therefore, Assad continued to rule 60-70 percent of Syrian territory, including the capital Damascus.[viii] Also, the intensity of the civil war gradually dissipated and remained limited to the northeast and northwest regions of Syria, controlled by Kurdish fighters and Turkish forces.
In this context, the normalisation of the Arab regimes’ relations with Syria became visible when in 2018 and 2019, UAE and Bahrain re-opened their embassies in Damascus. Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt held discussions at Arab League Summit in Tunis (Tunisia) in March 2019 to re-admit Syria. However, it did not materialize.[ix] Besides, in 2020, Oman reinstated its Ambassador in Syria. The re-integration process picked pace since the massive February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkiye and Syria and the Chinese-brokered re-establishment of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which backed opposing sides in the Syrian conflict.
The breakthrough came on May 7, 2023, when Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit, and Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki held a meeting at the Arab League’s headquarters in Cairo[x], to announce the ending of the twelve years of Syria’s diplomatic isolation and allow it to return to its seat in the League. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary-General of the Arab League, in a televised statement made it clear that including Syria in the League is a means to an end which is to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis. He stated that “It (Syria’s re-admission) does not mean that Syria crisis will be resolved, rather it would allow the Arab States for the first time since the Arab Spring to communicate with the Syrian government to address all the problems.”[xi] Thirteen of the League’s twenty-two member states sent their Foreign Ministers to the meeting in Cairo. The session was held behind closed doors, and it was not immediately clear about the positions countries had taken. The Members agreed to bring Syria back to the Arab League and called for resolving the civil war and the resulting refugee and drug trafficking crises.
The civil war devastated the social and economic security of 16 million Syrians. They are the ones who are suffering from economic sanctions and poverty. Currently, ninety percent of Syrians live below the poverty line. Western sanctions did not weaken Assad’s regime and failed to resolve the political crisis in the last twelve years. Therefore, the Arab countries wanted to bring Syria back to the Arab fold to resolve the issues relating to the return of refugees from neighboring states like Jordan, Turkiye, and Lebanon; end of the Captagon drug trade; withdrawal of foreign forces out of Syria; and return political stability to Syria. Arab States at the Cairo Meeting of the Arab League ensured that a committee involving Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq will be created to guarantee that Syria achieves these goals in line with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254.[xii]
Implications of Syria’s re-entry in the Arab League
The political re-integration process of Syria has sent a signal to the world that the Arab states no longer consider a military solution to the Syrian crisis; instead, it has become clear that the countries in the region accept Assad’s regime as a responsible member of the League to reach a political solution. The membership of Syria will pave the way for the Member Countries to directly engage with Assad’s regime in economic, political, security, and geo-strategic matters.[xiii]
Seeking Syria’s rehabilitation in the region’s larger geo-political context is essential for the stability and security of the Arab region. The Arab World is going through a geo-political churning. Abraham Accords of 2020 had already unfolded the normalization of Arab states’ relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia and Iran have also restored their relations. Russia and Iran are the crucial allies of Syria’s regime. China has also deepened its economic and military relations with the Gulf countries. The emerging geo-political changes in the region increased the concern of the US, which has been trying to patch its ties with Saudi Arabia.
It is also important to note that the Arab League’s members are not united on the question of Syria’s reintegration into the Arab organization. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia and the UAE supported the rehabilitation of Syria; on the other hand, countries such as Kuwait, Morocco, and Qatar remained opposed to full normalization before a definitive political solution to the Syrian crisis. Particularly, Qatar did not send its Foreign Minister to attend the meeting at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo. Doha maintained that restoring diplomatic relations would require political concessions to the Syrian opposition — something Assad has shown no willingness to do. The Qatari view is that the Syrian government’s egregious human rights violations have deprived Assad and his regime of any legitimacy.[xiv] The US is also not in favor of the latest move, saying, “Syria did not deserve to be reinstated but it supported the Arab League’s long-term objective of solving the crisis in Syria.”[xv]
In this context, two narratives have emerged with the inclusion of Syria in the Arab fold. First, critics say that holding Assad’s accountability in the civil war, which led to one of the greatest humanitarian crises, is also fading due to Syria’s return to the Arab League. The country’s stability is not certain, but one thing is very evident: the re-entry of Syria will further legitimise Assad’s rule. Second, supporters of Assad think it will strengthen security and stability in the region and stop other countries from expanding their influence in Syria. Besides, it will improve the economy devastated by the civil war and the recent earthquake.
The long path is ahead after Syria’s integration into the Arab fold, establishing processes and mechanisms to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, curtail drug trafficking, and end the ongoing war. Symbolically, Syria’s return to the League signals to the opposition that they are left on their own and confirms that the strategy of Damascus in the war worked. Practically, a seat in the Arab League is not powerful enough to evade the US and European sanctions that will likely prevent Arab countries from making significant investments in the reconstruction of Syria in the new future. Many in Syria desired to expand the trade with Arab States (read Gulf), but it could only happen if there were stability. Therefore, the ongoing low-intensity war in Syria will still prevent the Arab countries from increasing their investment in the country.[xvi]
Conclusion
Syria’s re-admittance to the Arab League is part of a broader restructuring of the regional security and economic architecture. It is also important to note that the emerging geo-political transition in the Arab World due to the change in the Global World Order, particularly after the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict and the ever-increasing entrenchment of China in global politics, has strengthened the desire of the countries in the Arab region to come together to resolve their differences and prevent the outsiders gaining the benefits from the sectarian, ideological and ethnic divisions in the region. Syria’s inclusion in the Arab League may promote the security and stability of the region if the countries convince President Assad to allow the return of the Syrian refugees from neighboring countries; curtail drug trafficking, and find a political solution to integrate the concerns of the oppositions in the reconstruction of the Syrian nation.
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*Dr. Arshad, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] It is a regional organization in the Arab World.
[ii] “Bashar al-Assad tells Arab League he hopes his return marks new era of peace,” The Guardian, May 19, 2023, accessed https://bit.ly/43go6dN, May 20, 2023
[iii] “Arab League concludes summit, adopts Jeddah Declaration,” A-Arabiya.net, May 19, 2023, accessed https://bit.ly/3WrjoaZ, May 22, 2023
[iv] It is a synthetic amphetamine-type stimulant, fenethylline, which goes by the trade name Captagon. Experts say the since the Civil War and the following Sanctions, a vast majority of global captagon production occurred in Syria which brought billions of dollars to the Syrian regime. The regime sells the Captagon drugs to local and international buyers. According to IMF Working Paper (2016), before the Civil War, the Syrian economy was based on agriculture, gas and tourism which together accounted for half of the GDP.
[v] “Syria suspended from Arab League,” The Guardian, November 12, 2011, accessed https://bit.ly/2srGEcd, May 8, 2023
[vi] The legislation sanctions the Syrian government including President Assad for War Crimes.
[vii]“Arab League readmits Syria after 11-year absence.” CNN Edition, May 7, 2023, accessed https://cnn.it/3O8GJfy, May 8, 2023
[viii] “The Assad regime faces a Rubik’s Cube of challenges in 2021,” Atlantic Council, January 11, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/451UnXT, May 9, 2023
[ix] “Assad’s Normalization and the politics of erasure in Syria,” Brookings, January 13, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3IeHcsZ, May 10, 2023
[x] The Arab League generally tries to reach agreements by consensus but sometimes opts for simple majorities. The session on May 7, 2023 was held behind closed doors, and it was not immediately clear which countries had registered objections.
[xi] “Arab League re-admits Syria after 11-year absence,” Arab News, May 7, 2023, accessed https://bit.ly/3MvEwtk, May 11, 2023
[xii] It calls for a ceasefire and political settlement in Syria. This document describes the roadmap for Syria's political transition.
[xiii] “Arab foreign ministers agree on Syria’s return to Arab League,” EFE, May 7, 2023, accessed https://bit.ly/3OdzMK5, May 12, 2023
[xiv] “Qatar and several other Arab states balk at readmitting Syria to the Arab League,” Stimson, April 20, 2023, accessed https://bit.ly/3IeHyQl, May 12, 2023
[xv] “Arab League: Syria reinstated as Assad rehabilitation continues,” BBC.Com, May 7, 2023, accessed https://bbc.in/3M9EeH1, May 12, 2023
[xvi] “What drove Syria’s return to the Arab League, and what impact will it have?,” The Times of Israel, May 16, 2023, accessed https://bit.ly/43hdICT, May 12, 2023