One can distinguish three broad phases in the U.S.’s approach towards Central Asia since the end of the Cold War. In the first phase, from 1991 till the 9/11 terror attacks, the focus of U.S. policy was on assisting the newly independent republics strengthen their sovereignty, help them in diversifying their trade relations and also securing the Soviet era nuclear weapons.
The second phase of the relations started post 2011, with the focus primarily on security relations as Central Asia became an important supply route for US troops in Afghanistan and in the fight against the ISIS. After 9/11, the U.S. had established temporary bases in Uzbekistan, which closed in 2005, and Kyrgyzstan, which closed in 2014 and briefly the airfield in Kulob, Tajikistan to support its operations in Afghanistan. During this phase, the US also issues two strategies towards the region, one in 2015 and the next in 2020.
Aware of the region’s importance to fight terrorism and the need to maintain economic stability to stem the growth of extremist ideology, in 2015, the C5+1 diplomatic platform was established. The platform represents the U.S.’s whole of government approach to Central Asia, jointly engaging with all five Central Asian governments (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). Since its inception in 2015, the C5+1 platform has sought to increase U.S.-Central Asia dialogue and cooperation through engagement at the Ministerial level, through expert meetings, and through thematic working groups. The C5+1 working groups — economy, energy and environment, and security along with ongoing regional programs, training sessions, and workshops are aimed to advance progress toward shared objectives. Since September 2021, the C5+1 has convened four ministerial meetings with the latest being in February 2023 in Astana, Kazakhstan. [i]
Conscious of Russia dominating bilateral relations in the region and the growing influence of China, the U.S. redefined its policy outlook towards the region in the recent past. In 2020, the Trump Administration released the United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity. The strategy improved upon the 2015 U.S. strategy towards the region stating that “…new leaders in the region have created new openings for reform-oriented development, intraregional connectivity and cooperation, and greater U.S. engagement.”[ii] The policy outlined six policy objectives:
The third and the latest phase in the relations began with the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Afghanistan has dominated U.S. approach towards Central Asia in the past decade, with two of the six priorities in the U.S. Strategy focused on this interlink. The U.S. continues to seek the support of the Central Asian nations in building a stable, secure and peaceful Afghanistan. The U.S. has an interest in ensuring that Central Asia does not become a sanctuary for radical Islamic militants. For Central Asia too, stability in Afghanistan remains a priority.
The region is also in the midst of a geopolitical shift. The gradual acceptance of Iran in international politics and the progress toward normalizing and expanding relations with Iran unlocks a number of important economic, political, and strategic opportunities for Central Asia. Apart from Moscow, which remains a vital political, economic and security partner, China has emerged as the region’s most significant geopolitical and economic actor. Trade has been the principal driver of this new relationship. Both President Putin and President Xi have visited the region in the recent past. President Putin’s visit to all the Republics of Central Asia in 2022, in the midst of the conflict in Ukraine, aimed to deepen economic engagements in the face of western sanctions on Russia and strengthen bilateral relations. President Xi’s first overseas visit since the pandemic to Central Asia for the SCO Summit in Samarkand is reflective of the importance of Central Asia to Chinese strategic thinking. The visit was to strengthen the BRI initiative, energy cooperation and expand economic relations. Close relations with the region are also linked to China’s aim to ensure stability in the Xinjiang province. The crisis in Ukraine has further brought attention to Central Asia from both the U.S. and Russia. While Central Asian nations have not supported Russian military action they have continued to strengthen their economic ties with Russia.
Given the reverberations of the Ukrainian conflict and the strategic importance of Central Asian states from an energy and broader economic perspective, and with Central Asian nations emphasising the need to engage with multiple partners, the U.S. is taking step to re-engage with the region. Secretary of State Blinken, during his visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in March 2023, signalled that the U.S. was focussed on areas of constructive and mutually-beneficial cooperation. In Astana, Secretary Blinken met with Central Asian Foreign Ministers and attended the C5+1 Meeting. Aware of the economic fallout of the sanctions on Russia, he stated that the US would try to ensure that the sanctions remain as targeted as possible. The U.S.’s aims to build pragmatic and constructive partnerships while strengthening bilateral relations.
In taking forward the 2020 U.S. Strategy towards Central Asia, the Biden Administration had established the Economic Resilience Initiative for Central Asia in 2022 with US$ 25 million “to expand regional trade routes, establish new export markets, attract and leverage greater private sector investment.” Secretary Blinken during his visit announced an additional US$ 25 million for this program. The US Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry has also visited the region and the U.S. has expressed its readiness to support projects that improve climate resilience and help develop green economies. The U.S. has increased its engagement in the energy sector, especially in renewable energy. For Central Asia, this allows an opportunity to seek increased transfer of technology and investments from the U.S. which would help reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. There is also an understanding within the U.S. that while it can promote ideas of democracy and human rights, it also needs to take into consideration the regional partner’s approach to these issues. The focus is on social and economic engagements that are based on demands from the local populations.
Conclusion
The withdrawal from Afghanistan and a focus on other theatres such as the Indo-Pacific and Asia may have diminished U.S. presence in Central Asia. Nonetheless, the U.S. continues to have interests which include it being a partner in economic development of the region. The current and next generation of leaders in Central Asia will increasingly confront new economic and geopolitical challenges allowing the U.S. to partner in economic and political development and stabilising the security environment for the future.
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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Office of the Spokesperson, US Department of State, “C5+1 Diplomatic Platform,” February 27, 2023. https://www.state.gov/c51-diplomatic-platform/ (Accessed on May, 23 2023).
[ii] Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, US Department of State, “United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity,” February 5, 2020. https://www.state.gov/united-states-strategy-for-central-asia-2019-2025-advancing-sovereignty-and-economic-prosperity/#:~:text=Policy%20Objectives,partnerships%20with%20the%20United%20States . (Accessed on May, 23, 2023).
[iii] Ibid.