On 9 May 2023, former Pakistani Prime Minister and Chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, Imran Khan, was arrested by Pakistani Rangers from the premises of the Islamabad High Court. Though Khan has more than 100 FIRs filed against him, the immediate context of his arrest was charges leveled against him and his wife, Bushra Biwi, for corruption in the Al-Qadri University Trust Case by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). Since then, the political problems in Pakistan that had been brewing over conduct of the Punjab elections on 14 May, has been relegated to the background while the latest crisis has taken centre stage. What has ensued is complete chaos in Pakistan, with severe reactions from within the country and some lukewarm reactions from outside of it. What this means is a crucial point for analysis.
Internal Reactions and developments
The internal reactions that continue to be reported, reflects not just on the popularity of Imran Khan among the masses within Pakistan but also on the less than firm position of the military establishment in the country. A look at the reactions from various quarters within Pakistan help bring out a comprehensive scenario.
Popular reaction - Within hours of Imran Khan’s arrest, violent protest broke out in Lahore, Peshawar, Karachi, Karak, and many other cities, with mobs damaging public property and bringing normal life to a stand-still. That the General Head Quarters of the Army at Rawalpindi was attacked and the Corp Commander’s House in Lahore was burnt and looted, is seen as a direct challenge that the military establishment is facing. This is also a manifestation of public anger against the Army given that Imran Khan has been attacking the institution, particularly Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Asim Munir, directly. This is being described as unprecedented in Pakistani history. Earlier, Khan named General Faisal Nasir of the Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI) as the person behind the killing of journalist Arshad Sharif in Kenya and the assassination attempt on Khan’s life in November 2022.[i] After his release on bail on 12 May, Imran Khan called out the Army’s ‘personal grudge’ against him as the reason for ordering his arrest.[ii] Meanwhile, in Lahore, PM Shehbaz Sharif’s residence as well as the Secretariat of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) in Model Town were attacked. In Faisalabad, Interior Minister, Rana Sannahullah’s residence and the Recruitment and Training Centre also came under attack. There have been many such attacks thereafter. Within two days of Khan’s arrest, protesters had set fire to 14 government buildings and 21 police vehicles in Punjab alone.[iii] By 13 May, reports estimated at least eight people dead and 2,800 arrested as the clash between protesters and armed forces in Pakistan escalated.[iv]
A cult-like following that Imran Khan has garnered amongst various strata of society is quite evident in Pakistan. It is the people’s protest against the Federal Government and the Army that is turning events in favour of Imran Khan. Despite internet being banned in many parts of the country, Imran Khan’s tweet on 15 May insisted that the people of Pakistan continue to keep fighting without fear and support him in the ‘Haqeeqi Azaadi till the last drop of blood’.[v] He has also invoked Islamist sentiments (as also has done in the past) by saying that people must not bow down to anybody except Allah. Earlier, on 6 May, Maulana Nigar Alam, equated Khan to the Prophet (though he got lynched by a mob for this).[vi] This shows the influence Imran Khan has had on people’s minds in Pakistan. From recent precedence, it is expected that people will continue to come out further to display their public sentiments for Imran Khan in the coming weeks.
Judiciary – The judiciary has clearly leaned towards Imran Khan, whether it be in context of PTI’s demand to hold snap elections in Punjab earlier or in the case of his arrest now. Initially, the Islamabad High Court (IHC), where Khan had come to give his attendance in context of a corruption case on 9 May, upheld the arrest by Rangers, stating that all formalities for arrest were adhered to by the NAB.[vii] This was however a procedural position than a substantive one. Immediately after the arrest, the IHC summoned Secretary Interior Ministry and Islamabad Police Chief to explain the arrest. On 12 May, IHC altogether reversed its decision, giving Imran Khan bail for two weeks. This came after the Supreme Court of Pakistan ruled the arrest as ‘unlawful and invalid’ and directed that Imran Khan be kept under protection as a ‘guest’.
The rifts between the ruling establishment and the judiciary, a tussle that has been ongoing in context of the Punjab elections, has become stark after Imran Khan’s arrest. While, PML (N) and its supporters are calling out the decision of the SC, Defence Minister, Khawaj Mohammed Asif, demanded that the SC’s ‘unconstitutional’ acts for the past seven decades must be held accountable, especially now as the SC continues to ignore the attacks by Khan’s supporters on the military establishment itself.[viii] On the other hand, Jamat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) Chairman, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, representing the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), called for a ‘peaceful’ sit-in protest outside the SC on 15 May. The demand is the resignation of Chief Justice of SC, Umar Ata Bandial, for giving judicial protection to Imran Khan. Despite the PML (N)’s request to shift the venue of the protest outside the prohibited Red Zone, the sit-in went ahead outside the SC. With PDM supporters breaching the gates of the SC, the scene turned chaotic, while the police were not seen taking action, despite Section 144 (of CrPC which bans certain activities for a specific time period) being imposed in Islamabad. Soon after, Pakistan Parliament adopted a motion against Chief Justice Bandial for ‘misconduct and deviation from oath’ in context of favouring Imran Khan.[ix] This direct attack on the judiciary lays bare the crumbling of another democratic institution of the country.
Political reactions – As alleged by Imran Khan, a crackdown by the Federal Government has been going on against his supporters from even before his arrest. Just after Khan’s arrest, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan and close aid of Khan, Shah Mahmod Qureshi, was arrested too, while PTI’s Secretary General was detained, among others. By 15 May, Imran Khan tweeted about a ‘London plan’ at play indirectly naming former PM Nawaz Sahrif and PM Shehbaz Sharif as coalescing with the Army for his removal.[x] What is noteworthy is that Imran Khan has likened the situation to crackdown and ban on the Awami League in East Pakistan[xi] that had ultimately led to break away of the country in 1971, an invocation that can have uncontrolled consequences for Pakistan.
So far, PM Shehbaz Sharif has ordered arrests of all those involved in violent protests in the last few days. Yet, the most prominent reaction within the political circle against Imran Khan came in from Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah. While both Khan and Sanaullah have been at loggerheads earlier, it is the latter’s statement that Khan may be arrested again after his bail period, which is causing speculations. This looked possible as police surrounded Imran Khan’s house in Lahore on 17 May, as the Punjab Provincial Government alleged that about 40 ‘terrorists’ were being sheltered by Khan in his residence. Khan noted through a tweet thereafter saying “probably my last tweet before my next arrest”[xii].
It may be recalled that the arrest of Imran Khan on 9 May was made at a time when the Federal Coalition and PTI had earlier reached a principled consensus over holding nationwide elections simultaneously. It was also a time when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was in London to visit his brother, former PM Nawaz Sharif, while the COAS, General Munir, was on an official visit to Oman. That the arrest was made in the absence of the PM and the COAS in the country gives a sense of coordinated planning between the political and military establishments.
Army- COAS Asim Munir has vowed to take action against those behind attack on the Pakistani Army. While General Munir has been cautious in giving any statement with regard to the political crisis in Pakistan, the invocation of Pakistani Army Act and Official Secrets Act[xiii] on those that attacked the Army, is seen as the strongest reaction so far, which however has come in too late. Immense physical and moral damage to the Army’s image is already done. Yet, it must be noted that arrests made under these Acts mean that civil courts lose jurisdiction over such cases.
In more specific reactions, the Army replaced Lieutenant General Salman Fayyaz Ghani as Corp Commander in Lahore on 12 May.[xiv] This is being reported as a ‘punishment’, as Ghani is said to have refused to take top orders and was seen pleading with the mob to spare his designated residence, the famous Jinnah House, from being attacked. Not only was the act seen as putting the military in weak light but some claims have come in that there are simmering divisions within the Army itself which led COAS Munir to take action against those who defy top orders. As per statements made by Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the official media wing of Pakistani army, the Army has been ‘tolerant’ and that reports on martial law being imposed is ‘heresy’. As of now, the Army has been deployed in Islamabad as well as Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the PTI has major following.
External reactions
There have been little reactions from traditional partners of Pakistan. Statements made by some of the external players on the recent crisis in Pakistan is given below.
Reactions from the West: One of the first reactions came in from US and UK. In a Joint Press Statement, when asked about the situation in Pakistan, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly noted that the rule of law must be followed in Pakistan.[xv] Individually, the White House Press Secretary’s reply to a question on the situation in Pakistan read as follows – “United States does not have a position on one political candidate or party versus another”.[xvi] The US Embassy in Islamabad cancelled consular appointments for the month. British PM Rishi Sunak too stated in the Parliament that while there is a ‘longstanding and close relationship with Pakistan’, the arrest of Imran Khan is an ‘internal matter’.[xvii] He hoped the situation will see adherence to democratic processes and rule of law. It may be noted that protests began at Hyde Park, close to Nawaz Sharif’s residence in London, soon after Imran Khan’s arrest. As a result, Scotland Yard banned protests in the area for two days. Following the two countries, Canada followed up with steps to issue travel advisory for its citizens.
On the other hand, multilateral forums were also seen releasing short statements after the political situation in Pakistan deteriorated. The United Nations Secretary General called for “all parties to refrain from violence” while stating that the right to peaceful assembly and due process of law must be respected.[xviii] The European Union noted that “challenges can be determined by Pakistan themselves through sincere dialogue and in line with the rule of law”.[xix]
Reactions from Pakistan’s neighbourhood: The Taliban in Afghanistan has expressed concern over instability in Pakistan and advised restraint. Pakistan’s closest ally, China has refrained from making any statements on the political crisis so far. However, China has shown inclination of being a mediator between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan in the recent months, as visible from the 5th China- Afghanistan- Pakistan Foreign Minister’s Dialogue held in May 2023, which saw discussions over extending the CPEC to Afghanistan, among deepening security ties between China and Pakistan.[xx] It must be remembered that despite a lack of any clear statement in the current context, China has leaned towards the Army in Pakistan, with COAS Munir making a visit to China just weeks before the arrest of Imran Khan and Chinese Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, being welcomed to Islamabad for the trilateral talks with Afghanistan on 6 May. Another ally of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, had reacted sharply in November last year when Imran Khan was attacked during PTI’s Long March. However, this time, there has been no reaction that has come in even after a week of Imran Khan’s arrest. Iran has not made any statements on the ongoing crisis within Pakistan either. On 18 May however, PM Shebaz Sharif and Iranian President Seyed Ebrahim Raisi inaugurated the Mand-Pishin Border Sustenance marketplace and Polan-Gabd Electricity Transmission Line at the border crossing,[xxi] suggesting business as usual for the two countries.
Others: On 15 May, South Korea’s Ambassador to Islamabad signed an agreement with Pakistan officials to defer $19.9 million loans under the Debt Services Suspension Initiative (DSSI) of the G20.[xxii] Though Seoul has not reacted to Imran Khan’s arrest, the recent agreement comes as a relief for the Pakistani Federal Government as the country faces one of its worst times of its independent history.
Conclusion
A little over a week after Imran Khan’s arrest the internal divisions between various institutions and actors within Pakistan have become even more clear. The public reactions in Pakistan from supporters of Imran Khan has been a force to reckon with for the Army, as it has faced direct attacks from both the masses and Imran Khan himself. With Khan now inciting people against General Asim Munir and the Sharif brothers, the Army has begun to react. The tussle between the Parliament and the Judiciary has also gotten sharper, where direct attack on the Supreme Court and the Chief Justice of Pakistan have been facilitated by the PML(N) from within the Parliament. These strong internal reactions when compared alongside the very minimal reactions coming in from outside the country, brings out one aspect to the fore. At a time when the world itself is under various geopolitical strains, Pakistan’s geopolitical relevance for foreign players cannot be taken for granted. While major reforms within the country are necessary for Pakistan’s stability, its foreign policy outreach may also need reconsiderations.
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*Dr Shrabana Barua is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] ‘Imran Khan claims top ISI officer was involved in senior journalist's murder’, The Telegraph, 7 May 2023, URL: https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/imran-khan-claims-top-inter-services-intelligence-officer-was-involved-in-senior-journalists-murder/cid/1934974?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tt_daily_twit [accessed on 15 May 2023]
[ii] Interview of Imran Khan in Lahore to the Guardian, Imran Khan accuses Pakistan’s military of ordering his arrest, The Guardian, 14 May 2023, URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/imran-khan-arrest-pakistan-military. [accessed on 15 May 2023]
[iii] PTI, ‘Imran Khan’s supporters attack house of PM Shehbaz Sharif’, The Indian Express, 11 May 2022, URL: https://indianexpress.com/article/world/imran-khans-supporters-attack-house-of-pm-shehbaz-sharif-8602914/. [accessed on 16 May 2023]
[iv] Ellen Loanes, ‘Pakistan’s political turmoil over Imran Khan’s arrest, explained’, Vox, 13 May 2023, URL: https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/5/13/23722375/pakistans-political-turmoil-imran-khan-arrest-explained. [accessed on 16 May 2023]
[v] Twitter, URL: https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1657846004694097923.
[vi] Pakistan: Blasphemy killing of PTI-affiliated cleric controversial, ANI, 8 May 2023, URL: https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/pakistan-blasphemy-killing-of-pti-affiliated-cleric-controversial20230508105325/. [accessed on 16 May 2023]
[vii] Imran Khan arrest updates: Pakistan high court upholds ousted PM's arrest ‘legal’, Hindustan Times, 10 May 2023, URL: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/imran-khan-arrested-live-updates-islamabad-high-court-toshakhana-case-101683626999665.html. [accessed on 16 May 2023]
[viii] Judiciary should be held accountable for "unconstitutional, illegal actions" in 75 years: Pak Defence Minister, ANI, 8 May 2023, URL:
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/judiciary-should-be-held-accountable-for-unconstitutional-illegal-actions-in-75-years-pak-defence-minister20230508070300/. [accessed on 16 May 2023]
[ix] Pakistan Parliament adopts motion to form committee to file case against Chief Justice who ruled in favour of Imran Khan, Indian Express, 16 May 2023, URL: https://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-parliament-adopts-motion-to-form-committee-to-file-case-against-supreme-court-chief-justice-umar-ata-bandial-8611452/. [accessed on 16 May 2023]
[x] Twitter, URL: https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1657842709334294530
[xi] Twitter, URL https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1657843723210747905
[xii] Twitter, URL: https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI. [accessed on 18 May 2023]
[xiii] ISPR, URL: https://www.ispr.gov.pk/press-release-detail?id=6536.
[xiv] Pak Army 'punishes' Lahore Corps Commander after Imran supporters burn his home | Watch, Hindustan Times, 13 May 2023, URL: https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/pak-army-punishes-lahore-corps-commander-after-imran-supporters-burn-his-home-watch-101683944622828.html. [accessed on 16 May 2023].
[xv] US Department of State, 9 May 2023, URL: https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-uk-foreign-secretary-james-cleverly-at-a-joint-press-availability-2/. [accessed 16 May 2023]
[xvi] The White House, Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 9 May 2023, URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/05/09/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-33/. [accessed 16 May 2023]
[xvii] Reuters, ‘UK monitoring situation in Pakistan carefully - PM Sunak’, 10 May 2023, URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk-monitoring-situation-pakistan-carefully-pm-sunak-2023-05-10/. [accessed 16 May 2023]
[xviii] United Nations, ‘Secretary-General Notes Ongoing Protests in Pakistan after Former Prime Minister’s Arrest, Stresses Right to Peaceful Assembly, Due Process Must Be Respected’, 10 May 2023, URL: https://press.un.org/en/2023/sgsm21790.doc.htm. [accessed 16 May 2023]
[xix] European Union, ‘Pakistan: Statement by the Spokesperson on the arrest of Imran Khan’, 9 May 2023, URL: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/pakistan-statement-spokesperson-arrest-imran-khan_en. [accessed 16 May 2023]
[xx] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Joint Statement of the 5th China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers' Dialogue, 5 May 2023, URL: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202305/t20230509_11073522.html. [accessed 16 May 2023].
[xxi] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Pakistan, URL: https://mofa.gov.pk/curtain-raiser-joint-inauguration-of-mand-pishin-border-sustenance-marketplace-and-polan-gabd-electricity-transmission-line/. [accessed on 18 May 2023]
[xxii] Ministry of Economic Affairs, Government of Pakistan, ‘GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA UNDER THE G-20 DEBT SERVICE SUSPENSION INITIATIVE’, 15 May 2023, URL: https://www.ead.gov.pk/NewsDetail/OGFkNWU3MDQtYTRiZC00ZjA5LWJkY2YtMGI1MDY0YjlhZTQ1. [accessed 18 May 2023]