In March 2022,Turkmenistan got its third president since becoming an independent country in the early 1990s. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov came to power after securing about 73 per cent of votes in the Presidential elections held on 12 March 2022.[i] He took the reins of power from the previous President,Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who ruled the country for about 15 years. The preceding President is the father of the incumbent, and it is considered the first such transfer of power in Central Asia.
During the elections, Serdar Berdimuhamedov said “My main goal is to continue on the glorious path of development built during 30 years of independence and to successfully implement programmes aimed at ensuring a high level of social conditions for the people.”[ii] Turkmenistan pursues a policy of ‘permanent neutrality’, and he also vowed to continue the country’s neutral foreign policy, if elected.
Over the period of one year, there is an emerging trend indicating that within the guiding framework of ‘permanent neutrality’ Turkmenistan is likely to scale-up its relations with select countries, including India. President Serdar has also upgraded the country’s decade old strategic partnership with China. The paper attempts to understand the process of continuity and change in Turkmenistan’s domestic priorities and its external relations.
Domestic political and economic scenario
In terms of the domestic political developments, it seems that continuity is being preferred by the new administration. President Serdar has largely retained the Cabinet Ministers serving in the previous administration, though their portfolios have been changed.[iii]To a large extent it can ensure continuity and stability in government policies, on the other hand, it also gives signals that change on the domestic front is not being envisaged at this stage.
FormerPresident Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov also remains active in the newadministration. In January 2023, President Serdar appointed himas chairman of Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council). The Council has the power to change the country’s constitution and also define the guidelines of domestic and foreign policy directions.[iv]Gurbanguly also represented Turkmenistan in the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, inNovember 2022as well as in its March 2023 meeting held in Ankara, Turkiye.
Turkmenistan has a population of about 6 million people, and its GDP in2019 was US$ 45 billion.[v] Before President Serdar assumed office, Turkmen people were facing high inflation rates. Average annual inflation increased to an estimated 12.5 per cent in 2021 from 10.0 per cent in 2020 due to higher food prices.[vi]President Serdar Berdimuhamedov can be credited with having succeeded in bringing the rate of inflation under control.[vii] According to the Asian Development Bank, the forecast for the rate of inflation in 2022 was 13 per cent, while it is expected to be 10 per cent in 2023.[viii] The country is also expected to maintain a growth rate of 5.8 per cent in 2023, which has been the growth rate in 2022.
The government has also demonstrated its resolve of taking strong action against corruption. The President removed the head of local branch of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The official was accused of corruption and benefitting personally from the charity.[ix] She happens to be a close relative of the President and his father. This in a way indicates the objective approach of the President and suggests that he would not hesitate in taking action against people in high positions.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Turkmenistan had reported no infections in the country. However, it had closed its borders and had applied preventive measures to safeguard from infections. According to reports, though passenger traffic at the Turkmenbashi port on the Caspian Sea remains restricted, President Serdar has started to gradually restore the country’s flight connectivity with various destinations, including Russia and Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan has also resumed regular direct flights between Ashgabat and New Delhi from26 March 2023, which had been suspended since the pandemic outbreak.
International Engagement
In pursuance of its policy of ‘permanent neutrality’, Turkmenistan has neither joined any alliance of country/countriesnor become a member of any major regional political or military grouping, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation or the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. Nevertheless, recent trends indicate that while remaining within the framework of permanent neutrality, Ashgabat is looking forward to enhance its international presence with greater and multifaceted engagement with regional countries and select international organizations. Since assuming the presidency, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov has undertaken multiple overseas visitsor hosted leaders from different countries, including India.The President has also paid visits to countries in Central Asia and West Asia.
Soon after the formation of the current government in Ashgabat, President of India Ram Nath Kovind visited Turkmenistan on 1–4 April 2022, becoming the first ever President of India to visit Turkmenistan.He was probably the first Head of State to be received by PresidentSerdar of Turkmenistan. The visit marked the 30th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It also underscored India’s effort of establishing early contacts with the new Turkmen administration. During his visit, apart from meeting and holding talks with the President of Turkmenistan, the President of India also leddelegation-leveltalks and interacted with people. To further step-up the ties, the two leaders agreed to ‘intensify efforts to further strengthen India-Turkmenistan’s multifaceted partnership’.[x]They also discussed TAPI natural gas pipeline and its security.[xi]The two sides signed four MOUs on disaster management, financial intelligence, culture, and youth affairs.[xii]
Though President Serdar made his first foreign visit tothe Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to perform Umrah (minor Hajj)in first week of June 2022,[xiii] his first official visit was to the Russian Federation on 10 June 2022. The visit indicates the significance Turkmenistan attaches to its ties with Russia. President Vladimir Putin, highlighting the significance of the visit, said, “we are very happy that you are paying your first foreign state visit precisely to our country, this once again stresses the special nature of our relations.”[xiv]
In after about two weeks’ time, Russian President also undertook a visit to Ashgabat which was hosting the 6th Caspian Summit on 29 June 2022. The visiting President had a stopover in Tajikistan and held meeting with President Emomali Rahmon in Dushanbe on 28 June 2022. Central Asia was President Putin’s first foreign visit destination since Russia’s launch of the ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine in February 2022.
Turkmenistan has strong economic and energy relations with China. In a significant development in bilateral relations with China, President Serdar has upgraded the bilateral partnership. During the visit of President Serdar to China in January 2023, the two countries elevated their ‘strategic partnership’ to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’.[xv]His visit to Beijing marked the three decades of diplomatic relations and a decade of the establishment of strategic partnership between the two countries.
The OTS, which was previously called the Turkic Council, was established in 2009. Ithas been evolving from an initiative to an international organisation. Its objective is to promote comprehensive cooperation among Turkic-speaking countries. In view of the on-going geopolitical developments in Eurasia, transformation of the Council could be significant. Istanbul hosted the 8th Summit of the OTS in November 2021, where Turkmenistan became an observer. On 16 March 2023, the OTS held an Extraordinary Meeting of the Council of Heads of State in Ankara, Turkiye. Former President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov represented Turkmenistan.[xvi]As per reports, Ashgabathas expressed commitment to upgrading its association with the OTS.[xvii]Seemingly, Turkmenistan is seeking to elevateits engagement with the Turkic world.
Apart from undertaking economic and political reforms, among the challenges faced by the President include safeguarding the country from Afghanistan’s instability as well as the consequences of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Turkmenistan shares a border with Afghanistan and ethnicity with Afghan people in border areas. Ashgabat maintains relations with Taliban, and Turkmenistan was the first country in Central Asia to engage with the new regime in Kabul. There seems to an understanding between the two sides to move forward with the construction of the TAPI natural gas pipeline.[xviii]
Even while according importance to its ties with Russia, in the Russia–Ukraine conflict Turkmenistan is trying to maintain its neutrality. It chose not to vote on the UN resolutions regarding the conflict.On the other hand, expressing sympathy towards the Ukrainian people, Turkmenistan sent humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. ‘Guided by the principles of humanism and solidarity, the ancestral traditions of good neighbourlinessof the Turkmen people,’ on 22 March 2023,Turkmenistan dispatched humanitarian cargo to the children of the Ukrainian people.[xix] The humanitarian aid consisted of medicines, other medical supplies, textiles, and various food products.
Byand large, continuity seems to be preferred on the domestic front by the new administration in Turkmenistan.On its external engagement, still guided by the principle of permanent neutrality, Turkmenistan probably seeks a more active international engagement, which seems to be primarily driven by economic considerations. The country has large energy reserves and wants to diversify its supply, including towards new markets in South Asia. Ashgabat is also elevating its traditional partnerships and upgrading its association with a Eurasia-focussed grouping. At a time when regional and global geopolitical situation remain in a flux, the administration in Turkmenistan is likely to continue negotiating through a challenging time in the near future.
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*Dr. Athar Zafar, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaime: The views are of the author.
Endnotes
[i] Central Commission for Holding Elections and Referendums in Turkmenistan, “The results of the Presidential elections,” 15 March 2022, https://saylav.gov.tm/en/news/387, accessed 29 March 2023.
[ii] Al Jazeera, “Turkmenistan leader’s son wins presidential election,” 15 March 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/15/turkmenistan-leaders-son-wins-presidential-election, accessed 31 March 2023.
[iii]MerdanAmanov, “ Turkmenistan Under Serdar: Has Anything Changed?,” The Diplomat, July 21, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/turkmenistan-under-serdar-has-anything-changed/, accessed 10 April 2022
[iv] The Diplomat, “Turkmenistan Votes for New, Opposition-free Parliament,” 28 March 2023, https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/turkmenistan-votes-for-new-opposition-free-parliament/, accessed 18 April 2023
[v]The World Bank, “Turkmenistan,” https://data.worldbank.org/country/turkmenistan accessed 30 March 2023
[vi] Asia Regional Integration Center, “Asian Development Outlook 2022, ” ADB, https://aric.adb.org/turkmenistan#:~:text=Average%20annual%20inflation%20accelerated%20to,GDP%20from%2032.2%25%20of%20GDP, accessed 4 April 2023.
[vii] Merdan Amanov, “ Turkmenistan Under Serdar: Has Anything Changed?,” The Diplomat, July 21, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/turkmenistan-under-serdar-has-anything-changed/, accessed 10 April 2022.
[viii]Asian Development Bank, “Economic forecasts for Turkmenistan,” https://www.adb.org/countries/turkmenistan/economy, accessed 30 March 2023.
[ix] Merdan Amanov, “ Turkmenistan Under Serdar: Has Anything Changed?,” The Diplomat, July 21, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/turkmenistan-under-serdar-has-anything-changed/, accessed 10 April 2022.
[x] President's Secretariat, “President of India in Turkmenistan; Meets President of Turkmenistan; Leads Delegation Level Talks; Interacts with ITEC/ICCR/Hindi Alumni/Friends of India Group,” PIB, 2 April 2022, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1812843, accessed 4 April 2023.
[xi]President’s Secretariat, “Press Statement by the President of India, Shri Ram Nath Kovind during the visit to Turkmenistan,” 2 April 2022, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1812744, accessed 10 April 2023
[xii] President's Secretariat, “President of India in Turkmenistan; Meets President of Turkmenistan; Leads Delegation Level Talks; Interacts with ITEC/ICCR/Hindi Alumni/Friends of India Group,” PIB, 2 April 2022, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1812843, accessed 4 April 2023.
[xiii] Turkmenistan Today, “President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov performs Umrah Hajj,” 1 June 2022, https://www.tdh.gov.tm/en/post/31688/president-turkmenistan-serdar-berdimuhamedov-performs-umrah-hajj, accessed 29 March 2023.
[xiv]Tass, “First visit of Turkmen leader to Russia sign of special ties between two countries — Putin,” 10 June 2022, https://tass.com/politics/1463499?utm_source=bing.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=bing.com&utm_referrer=bing.com, accessed 30 March 2023.
[xv] Xinhua, “Chinese, Turkmen presidents hold talks, elevating ties to comprehensive strategic partnership,” Updated 6 January 2023, https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202301/06/content_WS63b7e8bbc6d0a757729e52fc.html, accessed 9 April 2023.
[xvi]Turkmenistan Golden Age, “The National Leader of the Turkmen people, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan participated in an extraordinary Summit of the Organization of Turkic States,” 16 March 2023, https://www.turkmenistan.gov.tm/en/post/70740/national-leader-turkmen-people-chairman-halk-maslahaty-turkmenistan-participated-extraordinary-summit-organization-turkic-states, accessed 10 April 2023.
[xvii] Khayal Khatamzadeh, “Turkmenistan expresses its commitment to becoming full member of Organization of Turkic States,” trend news agency,17 March 2023, https://en.trend.az/casia/turkmenistan/3724692.html, accessed 8 April 2023.
[xviii] Orkhan Jalilov, “Turkmen, Afghan Officials Discuss Energy and Transport Projects,” 18 January 2022, https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/turkmen-afghan-officials-discuss-energy-and-transport-projects-2022-1-18-3/, accessed 10 April 2023.
[xix] Turkmenistan Golden Age, “Turkmenistan sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” 23 March 2023,
https://www.turkmenistan.gov.tm/en/post/70879/turkmenistan-sent-humanitarian-aid-ukraine,
accessed 28 March 2023.