As the war in Ukraine drags on to its second year, Russia released its new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) on 31 March 2023.[i] The document is an update to the 2016 FPC and lays out the priorities of Russian foreign policy amid new ‘geopolitical realities’[ii] that have emerged following Russia’s launch of a ‘a special military operation in Ukraine’ on 24 February 2022.[iii] The new geopolitical context entails a further isolation of Russia from the West and crisis of West-Russia relations. In the last one year, the United States, European Union and others have extended existing sanctions (in place since 2014) and imposed new and harsher sanctions on Russia that have resulted in the country’s isolation from global markets, and exacerbated the global supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, affecting the entire world. Within this context, the emphasis of building relations with the Global South has found greater resonance in Russia’s foreign policy.
The new concept shows a high degree of congruity with the previous version in terms of the basic principles underlying Russian foreign policy given that 2016 FPC too was released following the first wave of the Ukraine crisis, which began in 2014. It is important to note here that the time lag between the 2016 FPC and its predecessor document (2013) was the shortest. The earlier revisions of FPCs had followed the beginning of new Presidency in the country such as 2000, 2008 and 2012. In contrast, the update in 2016 was rushed to outline new priorities and goals for Russia as it began to look towards Asia amid the beginning of its economic isolation from western markets. The magnitude of West-Russia economic isolation has multiplied manifold following Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine last year. This includes stricter sanctions such as Russia’s suspension from SWIFT global payment system and shutting of airspace for Russian aircraft, among others which have necessitated major revisions in Russia’s foreign policy.
Despite aforementioned strategic congruity between the previous and current FPCs, there is a major difference in the structure of the 2023 FPC. While the regional priorities were not singled out as separate subsections in the previous FPC, the latest FPC outlines regional tracks of the country’s foreign policy. In this section, priority in chronological order has been given to Russia’s Near Abroad (post-Soviet space); the Arctic region; the Eurasian Continent with a particular focus on India and China; Asia Pacific; the Islamic World; Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; the European Region; USA and other Anglo-Saxon States; and the Antarctic. It is notable that the Euro-Atlantic region was still given importance in the 2016 FPC despite the beginning of Russia’s tensions with the region over Ukraine. In contrast, the new FPC places Europe and the US towards the bottom of its priority areas. The term “Anglo-Saxon states” also finds mention for the first time and refers to Russia’s relations with the US and other “unfriendly countries” in the West.[iv] However, the 2023 FPC singles out the US as the main instigator and medium of propagating the anti-Russian policy. It is interesting to note that the new FPC does not contain a separate section on Ukraine. The country is mentioned only while the document criticises US policy towards Russia and accuses it of unleashing “a new type of hybrid war” via Ukraine.
Reiterating the objectives of the maritime doctrine[v] released in July last year, the revised FPC also stresses on “ensuring Russian interests” in ‘World Ocean’ by enhancing Russia’s maritime potential and strengthening of its maritime defence capability to ensure secure free, safe and comprehensive access to vital, essential and other environments as well as transport communications and resources. The document also refers to preserving its interests in space, “outer space, and airspace” by securing access of Russia to the international (open) airspace taking into account the principle of freedom of flights; geographic diversification of the international flight routes for the Russian aircraft; development of cooperation in the sphere of aerial transportation to ensure overall security and development of Russia amid Western sanctions.
The FPC outlines key long-term international trends such as supply chain disruptions, leading to “a crisis of economic globalisation”. Russia’s vision of a new world order advocates multipolarity and sovereign equality among countries, ensuring their right to choose development models and upholding the cultural and civilisational diversity of the world. The FPC thus prioritises strategic partnership with the Global South in general and its two “great neighbours”, China and India, in particular.[vi] The FPC lays due emphasis on the development of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia, India, and China (RIC), and other interstate associations and international organisations to ensure diverse and equitable world order.
Finally, the new FPC refers to a “mutually beneficial cooperation with the non-Arctic states that pursue a constructive policy towards Russia and are interested in international activities in the Arctic, including developing infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route”. This is an important highlight of the new FPC with respect to Russia’s cooperation with China, which identifies itself as a Near-Arctic state, as also of potential cooperation with India.
Conclusion
The new FPC comes at a time when the war in Ukraine has continued for over a year. The FPC is structured around the framework laid out by President Putin during his State of the Nation address in February 2023. The new FPC recognises the growing role of the countries in the Global South as new centres of economic growth and geopolitical influence that are shaping the emerging multilateral world order. It emphasises on building a greater Eurasian partnership and singles out China and India as two great neighbours with great potential in this context.
The new FPC refers to India as a ‘particularly’ privileged partner and emphasises on increasing the volume of bilateral trade, strengthening investment and technological ties, etc. for mutual benefits. This is an important aspect given that India-Russia ties have shown resilience amid the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s heightened isolation from the West. India has maintained an independent position in the crisis and continued to engage with its Western partners as well as Russia.
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*Dr Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i]Executive Order approving Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept, The Kremlin, 31 March 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/70811, accessed on 1 April 2023.
[ii]Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council, The Kremlin, 31 March 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70810, accessed on 2 April 2023.
[iii]The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, MFA Russia, 31 March 2023, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/, accessed on 1 April 2023.
[iv]Russia’s updated Foreign Policy Concept does not contain Ukraine-related paragraph, TASS https://tass.com/politics/1597835, Accessed on 1 April 2023
[v] Marine Doctrine of the Russian federation, The Kremlin, 31 July 2022, http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/ru/xBBH7DL0RicfdtdWPol32UekiLMTAycW.pdf
[vi]Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks at the Meeting with Permanent Members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Moscow, March 31, 2023, MFA Russia,https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1861005/, accessed on 2 April 2023.