As the threat from Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) increases in Pakistan once again, a high-level Pakistani delegation led by Defence Minister Khwaja Asif rushed to Kabul on February 22, 2023, to meet with Taliban regime’s acting Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. Asif was accompanied by Foreign Secretary Asad Majeed Khan, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, Charge d’Affaires to Afghanistan Ubaidur Rehman Nizamani and Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Mohammad Sadiq.
Since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in August 2021, Pakistan has experienced a significant surge in violence perpetrated by the TTP or Pakistan Taliban. The TTP is allied with the Afghan Taliban, but the two groups maintain separate structures. Pakistani officials have previously alleged that armed groups are launching attacks on their country from Afghanistan. The Taliban has denied those accusations. The Taliban’s reluctance to rein in the TTP has disappointed Pakistan, where many celebrated the return of the Taliban in Kabul. In 2021–2022, the Taliban brokered a ceasefire between the Pakistan Army and the TTP. The TTP, however, called off the ceasefire in November 2022, ordering its fighters to resume their attacks.
The TTP has claimed responsibility for several terrorism incidents throughout the country in the recent months, including a suicide bombing in Islamabad,[i] an attempted attack targeting a police station in Punjab province[ii] and an assault on a police compound in Karachi.[iii] This January, a bomb blast tore through a mosque in Peshawar, Pakistan, killing over 100 people – most of them were police officers attending afternoon prayer. The suicide attack took place in a high-security zone, and it was one of the worst attacks the country has seen in recent years. Although the TTP initially claimed responsibility, later denied and put the blame on the commander of a breakaway faction..[iv] The incident added fuel to ongoing protests in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, in Pakistan’s northwest, where residents are making it known that they do not want violence and lawlessness to return to the area.
Pakistan’s most recent outreach to the Afghan Taliban can therefore be seen as another desperate outreach to address the immediate security threats faced by Pakistan. The Pakistani Foreign Office in a brief statement stated[v] that “they discussed security-related matters including counter-terrorism measures”, while the Afghan side stated that “the two sides discussed economic cooperation, regional connectivity, trade, and bilateral relations”[vi] – clearly indicating different priorities of the two neighbours.
In the recent months, there have been frequent checkpoint closures and flare-ups of violence along the Durand Line (the 2,670 km Afghanistan-Pakistan international land border that Afghanistan does not accept). The visit by the delegation took place at a time when the Torkham border trading and crossing point between the two countries remained closed for the third straight day after a deadlock over starting a dialogue between border officials. The Taliban authorities decided to shut the busiest border crossing as they objected to what they said were new documentation rules restricting people assisting medical patients from entering Pakistan.[vii] Pakistan in the recent past had tightened border controls due to security concerns. On February 21, 2023, an exchange of fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan was also reported at the Torkham border in which a security guard was injured.[viii]
During the meeting, two sides addressed the issue which resulted in the reopening of the border crossing for trade and transit. Mullah Baradar said in a statement that political and security concerns should not affect business or economic matters.[ix] He also urged Pakistan to ensure facilities for Afghan passengers at the Torkham and Chaman-Spin Boldak borders, with special consideration for emergency patients.
For Pakistan, the main objective of the visit was to discuss the security threat it faces from the TTP. It is believed that Pakistan highlighted the issue of the TTP militants using the Afghan soil for attacks inside Pakistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari recently stated that the “security and terrorist threat emanating” from Afghanistan was the most important issue in the region. Speaking at the Munich Security Dialogue, he said, “The concern is that if we and the interim government ( in Kabul) don’t take these groups seriously and they don’t demonstrate the will and the capacity to take on terrorist groups, then they will conduct terrorist activities in the region first – we are already witnessing an uptick in terrorist activity in Pakistan since the fall of Kabul – but it won’t be long before it reaches somewhere else.”[x] The Taliban regime criticized his statement and said Pakistan should discuss bilateral issues face-to-face instead of “complaining at international conferences”.[xi] Therefore, the high-level meeting on 22nd Feb in Kabul was significant as it was taking place at an environment of tension between the two sides.
Given Pakistan’s patronage for the Afghan Taliban during the two decades following their ouster in 2001, Pakistan may have felt that it could leverage Taliban’s influence over the TTP to broker a peace agreement with them. The TTP, which operates along the porous border between the two countries, has carried out numerous attacks inside Pakistan since it was founded in 2007. Following the Peshawar Army School attack in 2014, the Pakistani army launched a major offensive, which led many of the TTP members to flee to Afghanistan. Pakistan wanted the Taliban regime to crack down upon the TTP but has been frustrated with Taliban’s inaction.
In the recently held meeting Pakistani Defence Minister shared "irrefutable evidence" with the Afghan Taliban about the presence of the TTP in Afghanistan. Reportedly, in response the Afghan Taliban proposed a plan to control the TTP.[xii] The proposal envisages disarming and rehabilitating the outlawed TTP fighters and their families numbering more that 30,000 from Pak-Afghan border areas. However, the Afghan government asked Pakistan to fund the proposal and bear the cost of rehabilitation of the TTP. This was revealed at the meeting of the Central Apex Committee in Islamabad, which met on February 24, 2023, to discuss the recent surge in terrorist attacks in the country and other security matters.[xiii] The Afghan Taliban apparently had made similar proposal to China to address its concerns about the East Turkestan Islamic Movement in the restive Xinjiang province.
It was expected that the high-level meeting between the Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban would address issues of concern of both the sides. However, by expressing the willingness to disarming and relocating TTP members from border areas, provided the cost is borne by Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban have sought on Pakistan to take the first step, which is yet to respond to the proposition. Given the dire economic crisis in Pakistan and the burden of external debt and liabilities, the decision will not be an easy one for Pakistan. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen how Pakistan responds to the Afghan Taliban’s proposal, as that will be crucial in determining the course of Pakistan’s relation with the two Talibans.
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* Dr. Anwesha Ghosh, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] “Suicide blast in Pakistan's Islamabad, cop killed, several injured.” India Today, Dec 23, 2022. Available at: https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/suicide-attack-pakistan-islamabad-near-govt-office-area-casualties-feared-2312621-2022-12-23 (Accessed on 28.02.23)
[ii] “Pakistani Taliban militants attack police station in Pakistan’s Punjab province.” The Hindu, Feb 3, 2023. Available at: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistani-taliban-militants-attack-police-station-in-pakistans-punjab-province/article66458051.ece (Accessed on 28.02.23)
[iii] “Taliban attacks police compound in Pakistan’s Karachi.” Al Jazeera, Feb 17, 2023. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/17/armed-men-attack-police-station-in-karachi (Accessed on 28.02.23)
[iv] “Death toll from blast in Pakistan mosque rises to at least 100 as country faces ‘national security crisis’.” CNN, Jan 30, 2023. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/asia/pakistan-peshawar-mosque-blast-tuesday-intl-hnk/index.html (Accessed on 28.02.23)
[v] Spokesperson, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Govt. of Pakistan tweeter handle @ForeignOfficePK, Feb 22, 2023. Available at: https://twitter.com/ForeignOfficePk/status/1628328560359272449 (Accessed on 28.02.23)
[vi] “Pakistan’s defence and spy chiefs discuss security with Taliban.” Al Jazeera, Feb 22, 2023. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/22/pakistan-defence-minister-isi-head-discuss-security-with-taliban (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[vii] “Afghanistan’s Taliban reopen key trade route with Pakistan.” The Hindu, Feb 23, 2023. Available at: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/afghanistans-taliban-reopen-key-trade-route-with-pakistan/article66544820.ece (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[viii] “Guard injured as Pakistan, Afghan forces trade fire at Torkham.” Dawn, Feb 21, 2023. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1738310/guard-injured-as-pakistan-afghan-forces-trade-fire-at-torkham (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[ix] “Pakistan’s defence and spy chiefs discuss security with Taliban.” Al Jazeera, Feb 22, 2023. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/22/pakistan-defence-minister-isi-head-discuss-security-with-taliban (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[x] “Munich Conference: Terrorism to move beyond Pakistan if Afghanistan does not rein in militants, says Bilawal.” The News, Feb 19, 2023. Available at: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1042137-munich-conference-terrorism-to-move-beyond-pakistan-if-afghanistan-does-not-rein-in-militants-bilawal (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[xi] “Pakistan’s defence and spy chiefs discuss security with Taliban.” Al Jazeera, Feb 22, 2023. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/22/pakistan-defence-minister-isi-head-discuss-security-with-taliban (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[xii] “Afghan Taliban want Pakistan to ‘bear cost’ of disarming TTP.” The Express Tribune, Feb 24, 2023. Available at: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403028/afghan-taliban-want-pakistan-to-bear-cost-of-disarming-ttp (Accessed on 01.03.23)
[xiii] Ibid.