The launch of “special military operation” in Ukraine by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has completed one year on 24 February 2023. On the same day, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a document titled “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”[i], and the US sanctioned Chinese and other foreign companies for their involvement in Russia. The objective of this paper is to analyse the Chinese document and discuss responses from major stakeholders.
China’s Document on the ‘Ukraine Crisis’
The Chinese proposal for the political settlement of the ‘Ukraine crisis ‘consists of 12 points, which are as follows:(1)respecting the sovereignty of all countries; (2)abandoning the Cold War mentality; (3) ceasing hostilities; (4) resuming peace talks; (5) resolving the humanitarian crisis; (6) protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs); (7) keeping nuclear power plants safe; (8) reducing strategic risks; (9) facilitating grain exports; (10) stopping unilateral sanctions; (11) keeping industrial and supply chains stable; (12) and promoting post-conflict reconstruction.
The Chinese proposal does not have any specific plan or timeline to achieve the objective. It does not present any implementation plan and refers to resuming peace talks without any time frame. The above-mentioned 12 points in the document are not new, and the Chinese leadership has already referred to these points on different occasions in the past year. The Chinese proposal can be broadly analysed in terms of political, strategic, economic, and humanitarian aspects to have an understanding of the Chinese stance on the Russia–Ukraine conflict and how China is trying hard to project itself as a mediator and important player in the ongoing conflict.
Political and Strategic
The Chinese proposal first talks about respecting the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all countries, and it favours the uniform application of international law. However, China needs to introspect about it, as it has not always adhered to this principle.
The growing China-US rivalry may have a profound effect on the nature of the future global order. The contestation between China and the US can be seen in Ukraine as well. It is not a coincidence that China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi(Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee and former Foreign Minister of China), reached Moscow shortly after US President Joe Biden left Ukraine on 20 February 2023, and agreed to deepen bilateral ties with Russia and oppose “the Cold War mentality, bloc confrontation, and ideological opposition”.[ii]
Almost all important strategic documents released by China in the recent past, including the concept paper on the Global Security Initiative released on 21 February 2023, have highlighted China’s call for abandoning the Cold War mentality and preventing bloc confrontation primarily to counter the West. China’s position paper on Ukraine does the same. While highlighting the importance of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security, it also refers to the legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries. It opposes the threat of using nuclear weapons and highlights the safety and security of nuclear facilities.
The Chinese leadership has invested in developing framework for an alternative global order based on so-called “moral realism”. However, the gap between words and deeds in Chinese foreign policy has been much evident in recent times. It is well known that there are security threats emanating from China’s conduct in Asia. Consequently, the rule-based order has been under threat. For the last eight years, China has been consistently increasing its defence budget. In March 2023, the announcement shows an increase of 7.2 percent.[iii]
Economic Aspect
The 10th point of China’s proposal talks about stopping unilateral sanctions and highlights that China opposes unilateral sanctions unauthorised by the United Nations (UN) Security Council. As per the reports in the Wall Street Journal, multiple Chinese state-owned and non-state companies have exported military and dual-use technology items to Russian defence companies. On 27 February 2023, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticised the US for sanctioning Chinese companies and termed the move ‘illegal’ and detrimental to Chinese interests. It accused the US of ‘fanning the flame’ and ‘fuelling the fight’ by providing Ukraine with over $32 billion worth of military aid, including large quantities of advanced armament. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson also talked about resolute Chinese countermeasures in response to the US sanctions.[iv]
The document calls for joint efforts to “mitigate the spillovers of the conflict and prevent it from disrupting international cooperation in energy, finance, food trade, and transportation and undermining the global economic recovery”.[v] However, it does not provide a concrete proposal to keep the industrial and supply chains stable.
Humanitarian
The Chinese proposal talks about dealing with humanitarian issues arising from the crisis, which includes preventing nuclear accidents and taking care of PoWs. “The safety of civilians must be effectively protected, and humanitarian corridors should be set up for the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones”.[vi] China has supported the exchange of PoWs between Russia and Ukraine and urged all parties to create more favourable conditions for this purpose.
Response from major stakeholders
The Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation has appreciated Chinese aspirations to contribute to a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Ukraine. However, it did not endorse the whole Chinese proposal. Moscow reiterated its position, regretted that Russia’s constructive proposals were rejected by the countries of the West, and referred to Ukraine’s complete departure from today’s realities.[vii]
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy cautiously welcomed some elements of the Chinese proposal for a ceasefire during a news conference on 24 February 2023. The Ukrainian leader also stressed that any plan that did not include a full Russian troop withdrawal would be unacceptable to Ukraine. He preferred a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and hoped that China would not deliver weapons to Russia.[viii]
India has not commented on China’s position paper so far; however, it has reiterated many times that dialogue and diplomacy are the only way forward. It has called for an immediate ceasefire and has extended humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
Western leaders have largely been dismissive or sceptical of the Chinese proposal, arguing that China does not have the credibility to act as a mediator in the Russia–Ukraine conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been quoted as saying that China is trying to draw the world’s eyes away from its support for Russia.[ix]
A spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been quoted as saying that the position paper by China represents “an important contribution”.[x]
Conclusion
It is well known that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and signed a joint statement on 4 February 2022, declaring that “friendship between the two states has no limits, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of co-operation”.[xi]The launch of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine has completed a year. Under the current circumstances, China tries to balance its position. The attempt to project China as an honest and neutral broker has not been very successful. The Chinese media has highlighted that China has played a “responsible and constructive role in easing the situation” and that the proposal could be seen as a Chinese solution to global issues that is centred on promoting talks for a peaceful resolution of the crisis. In the absence of any implementation plan or operational details to achieve the objective, the proposal has not received full support from any major stakeholder so far, although Russia and Ukraine have both indicated some interest in some elements of the Chinese proposal.
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*Dr. Sanjeev Kumar is a Senior Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are of the author.
Endnotes
[i] Foreign Ministry of the PRC,“China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, February 24, 2023, Beijing, available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html, accessed on February 28, 2023.
[ii]“China’s top diplomat visits Moscow ahead of anniversary of Russia’s Ukraine invasion”,available at https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/china/china-wang-yi-russia-moscow-visit-intl-hnk/index.html,accessed on February 28, 2023.
[iii] “China hikes defence budget for 8th consecutive year with 7.2 per cent increase to USD 225” 6 March 2023 billion” avaiblat at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-plans-7-2-defence-spending-rise-this-year-faster-than-gdp-target/articleshow/98421749.cms accessed March 6 2023
[iv]“Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on February 27, 2023, available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202302/t20230227_11032204.html, accessed on February 28, 2023
[v] Foreign Ministry of the PRC, “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, February 24, 2023, Beijing, available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html, accessed on February 28, 2023.
[vi] Ibid
[vii] Comment by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, available at https://mid.ru/en/press_service/spokesman/comments/1855483/. accessed on February 28, 2023
[viii] Reuters “Ukraine welcomes some Chinese ceasefire 'thoughts,' insists on Russian withdrawal”,February 24, 2023, available at https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-says-its-open-some-parts-china-ceasefire-proposal-2023-02-24/, accessed on March 1, 2023.
[ix] U.S. dismisses China’s Ukraine peace proposal as an attempt to distract, available athttps://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/24/united-states-china-ukraine-00084384, accessed on March 1, 2023.
[x] China, as a responsible major country has played a “responsible and constructive role in easing the situation and defusing the crisis”, available athttps://english.news.cn/20230227/4d40ef3e804f42fc9745ec3312f79099/c.html, accessed on March 1, 2023.
[xi]“Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development”, Moscow, February 4, 2022,http://www.en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770, accessed on March 1, 2023.