One year after President Putin announced the decision to recognise the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine[i], he delivered his annual State of the Nation address to the Federal Assembly. It is significant to note that the Russian President delivered his previous State of the Nation address in April 2021.[ii]While he delivered several crucial speeches last year, he did not address the Parliament.[iii]In this respect, the latest address on 21 February 2023 holds significance not only within the context of Ukraine but also in understanding the goals and objectives of the country in the coming months. This viewpoint highlights the key takeaways from President Putin’s speech to understand the likely trajectory of Russian domestic and foreign policy in the coming months.
On Ukraine and the West
Russia began its attacks on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 when President Putin announced a “special military operation,” [iv]three days after recognizing the Donbas region. The operation comprised of a full-scale attack on Ukraine via land, water and sea and was stated to be aimed towards “demilitarizing” and “de-Nazifying” Ukraine. This offensive came amid a volatile situation in the Ukrainian–Russian border following the rejection of security guarantees sought by Moscow in December 2021[v]
In his latest speech, President Putin once again alluded to the security guarantees and emphasised on its security concerns vis-à-vis the West and NATO. He observed that the attack on Ukraine was initiated because there was information about an imminent attack on the Donbas region. Justifying the Russian position, he pointed out that contrary to popular opinion, Russia used force to stop the war while the West started it. With respect to future trajectory of the conflict, he noted that the country would deal with it “step by step, carefully and consistently.”[vi]
On US and New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
In his address, the Russian President also announced suspension of Russia’s participation in New START while alluding to the “connection between strategic offensive weapons” by the West and the conflict in Ukraine.[vii]
The New START was first signed in Prague in 2010 and came into force in 2011. It is notable for being the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the US. It was last extended for another five years in 2021, soon after US President Joe Biden took office. It is pertinent to note that although Russia has not withdrawn from the agreement, it has raised the issue of New START’s scope when dealing with arsenals of other nuclear powers, such as, the UK and France. In addition, President Putin also made clear Russia’s willingness to resume nuclear weapons tests in case the US did the same.
On Sanctions and Russian Economy
In the last one year, the US, EU and others have extended existing sanctions (in place since 2014) and imposed new and harsher sanctions on Russia which resulted in the country’s isolation from global markets. On this aspect, the President observed that, “those who initiated the sanctions are punishing themselves: they sent prices soaring in their own countries, destroyed jobs, forced companies to close, and caused an energy crisis, while telling their people that the Russians were to blame for all of this”.
He highlighted the resilience of the Russian economy which, he pointed, had shown immense stability despite international sanctions and several supply chain disruptions. Contrary to predictions that the economy would shrink between 10-25 percent, he stated that the economy’s decline was under 3 percent.
He referred to a new growth cycle of the Russian economy which will rely on “a fundamentally new model and structure” which would give precedence to new and promising global markets, including in the Asia-Pacific while also catering to the domestic market. He added that research, technology and workforce would no longer be geared towards exporting commodities but manufacturing goods with high added value. This, he opined, would “help Russia unleash its immense potential in all spheres and sectors”.
Russia’s Priorities and Objectives
In accordance with the re-orientation of Russia’s approach, there are several important domestic and foreign policy priorities:
Conclusion
President Putin’s speech was delivered on expected lines but stood out for its symbolism. He delivered his speech on the same date he had announced the decision to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk last year. He outlined Russia’s security concerns vis-à-vis NATO expansion as well as information regarding a likely attack on the Donbas region that triggered Russia’s actions in Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden visited Ukraine on 20 February 2023 and delivered a speech that that was critical of Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. In his speech, the US President reiterated US solidarity with Ukraine and announced a new package of military assistance for the country. In this respect, the speeches of US and Russian Heads of State reflected the US/ NATO-Russia divide and confrontation via Ukraine.
Furthermore, Russia’s decision to suspend participation in New START reflects the gravity of the current geopolitical flux and growing US-Russia differences. It is important to note here that while the US-Russia relations have undergone a downward trajectory since the beginning of Ukraine crisis in 2014, the cooperation on arms control had remained between the two. Russia’s suspension of participation in New START carries implications for global nuclear arms control as well. The participation of US and Russia- two biggest possessors of nuclear arsenal had served as a model of responsible nuclear power for the world. The current developments add to uncertainty regarding global arms control and exacerbate the possibility of nuclear threat in the ongoing conflict.
Finally, Putin’s speech gave a snapshot of the country’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory where emphasis was given to infrastructural development and enhancing engagement with Asian partners. However, it ended on a note of uncertainty with Putin’s announcement of a ‘step by step’ response to developments in Ukraine. It is apparent that the Ukraine conflict is likely to prolong indefinitely.
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*Dr. Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
End Notes
[i] Message from the President of the Russian Federation, The Kremlin, 21 February 2022, Accessed on 22 February 2023, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828.
[ii] Putin to deliver State of the Nation Address to Federal Assembly on Feb 21 — Kremlin, 10 February 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1574689, Accessed on 12 February 2023.
[iii] The State of the Nation Addresses are usually delivered each year by the President. The address was once postponed in 2017.
[iv] Address by the President of the Russian Federation, The Kremlin, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843, Accessed on 24 February 2022
[v] Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of The Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, MFA Russia ,https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y, Accessed on 21 December 2021.
[vi] Presidential Address to Federal Assembly, 21 February 2023,The Kremlin, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565, accessed on 22 February 2023.
[vii]MFA Russia, Twitter, 21 February 2023https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1628031829159645184, Accessed on 21 February 2023.