Given the early days of democratic success in Tunisia in the wake of the Arab Uprising 2011 onwards, perhaps it was difficult to speculate that this country too would later descend into constitutional and political deadlock similar to what has been witnessed in recent past in Libya, Lebanon and Yemen. Tunisia’s march towards democracy was stalled after President Kais Saied not only removed the Prime Minister in July 2021 but soon suspended the Parliament, abrogated the 2014 Constitution and called for a referendum on the new Constitution to be followed by Parliamentary elections in December 2022.
Following the departure of long serving President Abedine Ben Ali of Tunisia in 2011 amidst the wave of Arab Uprising, the country had witnessed a series of successful elections such as Constituent Assembly election (2011), Parliamentary and Presidential elections (2014) and again Parliamentary and Presidential elections (2019). In 2019, people voted for a fractured Parliament and chose an apolitical person Kais Saied, a constitutional expert, as President of the country. But along with this gradual democratic transition, a sense of disillusionment was also creeping inside the political landscape of the country and support for democracy was constantly declining. According to a survey, around 70% people were in favour of democracy in 2015 while the figure declined to 46% in 2018.[i] Again between 2015 and 2018, percentage of people supporting one-man rule increased from 18% to 35%.[ii] The reason for this growing disenchantment towards democracy could be traced to a prolonged phase of inflation and unemployment in the country, deepening food crisis, divisive ideological and obsolete coalition politics, politics around management of COVID-19 pandemic and country’s gradual inclination towards an autocratic state.
These day-to-day grievances were expressed by people by electing an inexperienced and apolitical Kais Saied, as the President of Tunisia. One should understand that no revolution can succeed only on the basis of ensuring political freedom alone but it also demands progress in the socio-economic graphs of the masses where the Jasmine Revolution[iii] completely failed.
President Kais Saied, Current Referendum and its Prospect
Since Kais Saied took over as President in October 2019, Tunisia has been trapped in one crisis or another and the functioning of the Parliament has mostly remained suspended. His tenure has witnessed a constant contestation for power among Prime Minister, President and Speaker, which could be attributed to ambiguities in the Constitution in defining the source of authority, issue of accountability and mechanism of power sharing. These ambiguities put these institutions at loggerheads to claim the constitutional rights which in most of the cases seem to be overlapping.
With the promise of bringing the sluggish economy and derailed politics on track, President Saied, on July 25 2021 by using Article 80 of the 2014 Constitution, first removed the Prime Minster, Hichem Mechichi, suspended the Parliament and later dissolved it and called for fresh elections. The Speaker of the house and head of the largest opposition party Islamist En-Nahda termed the move, a coup against the revolution,[iv] while parties like Karamah coalition, Qalb-Tounis and Democratic Current termed the action as unconstitutional.[v]
Others accused the Kais of manipulating Article 80 of the Constitution which specifies that President must seek the advice of the Prime Minister and the Speaker before making any such move and the Parliament can in no way remain suspended.[vi] Later Kais, through various decrees, enhanced his Constitutional power and almost became the chief administrator of the country. He abrogated the 2014 Constitution too, which he very often had referred to as a Constitution with locks and hurdles everywhere.[vii]
President Kais later appointed Sadok Belaid, a law expert, to head the Constitution drafting committee who submitted the draft Constitution in June, 2022 to be put for referendum. Kais earlier in January 2022 launched a two-month e-consultation campaign in order to seek the opinion of the masses on the new Constitution which met with a very lukewarm response, as only 5,35,000 persons registered themselves for this exercise. In addition, he had formed a National Consultative Commission, two Consultative Committees and held a National Dialogue but none of the Committee or the dialogue had any representation from any political party.[viii]
President Kais fixed July 25, 2022 for the referendum on the new Constitution which happened to be the 65th Republic Day of Tunisia. According to Election Commission, total numbers of registered voters is 9.2 million including 3.5 lakh expatriates.[ix] According to the Commission, there was 27% turnout[x], which is the lowest compared to all past elections, the country has seen since 2011. President Saied’s own election in 2019 had witnessed a 55% turnout.[xi] The turnout among the expatriates was further low as it did not exceed 6.5% of total registered voters.[xii] Under the new referendum law, there was no minimum threshold for the participation in the referendum and implementation of the referendum required only the announcement of the result. A day after July 25 polling, the Election Commission announced that 94.6 % of the voters have voted in favour of the referendum while 5.6 % said No and 148,000 votes were found invalid.[xiii]
The Islamist En-Nahda party, largest opposition group in the dismissed Parliament, boycotted the referendum and the party’s head Rachid Ghannouchi on the day of polling, visited the grave of former President Beji Caid Essebci in honour of his contribution to the 2011 revolution. The Tunisian General Labour Union, largest trade union in the country made no particular appeal to its cadres in this regard and left the decision to the members. The leader of the Democratic Current, Nabil Hajji said that the new Constitution is not capable of resolving the national crisis and called the referendum a new mean to monopolise power without any accountability.[xiv] On its part, Salvation Front said that referendum has no meaning when 75% of the electorates did not participate and said that 2014 Constitution is the only source of legitimacy.[xv] A group of five parties, Ettakatol Party, the Republican Party, the Labour Party, the Democratic Current Party and the Qutb Party in a joint statement accused the President of using state media to win the referendum.[xvi]
President Saied said that people are free to support, oppose or boycott the referendum but the referendum will end the year-long political deadlock and begin a new chapter in the history of Tunisia.[xvii] Immediately after the verdict of the referendum, President Saied met his Prime Minister Najla Bouden and asked her to prepare a decree for holding the Parliamentary and Council elections and prepare another draft decree for the establishment of the Constitutional Court[xviii] whose absence has been a source of major contention between the President and the Parliament in the past.
What made this whole exercise of referendum further contentious was the series of articles that Belaid, Head of the Drafting Committee wrote in different Arabic dailies of Tunisia stating that, “there were huge discrepancies between the draft he submitted to Kais and the one put out for the referendum. The latter could pave the way for disgraceful dictatorial regime”.[xix] For example there is a difference between what Belaid suggested about the formation of the Constitutional Court and the clause put forward for the referendum. New Constitution gives the President sweeping power as he can appoint and remove the Prime Minister at will and dissolve the Parliament too,[xx] while in the 2014 Constitution; there was a provision to remove the President also which is absent this time.[xxi] The most controversial part of the new Constitution is one which specifies that the State alone can work to achieve the goal of true Islam. Another clause of the new Constitution lays down that President can extend his term of office in case of imminent danger, which according to Belaid, would further pave the way for entrenchment of autocracy.
The streets of Tunisia witnessed a pro- and an anti-movement vis-à-vis the referendum. Those opposed to the referendum saw it as a move towards a Presidential form of Government, which would later turn into a one-man life-long dictatorship, while the supporters of the referendum hailed it as a step towards real democracy. Another pro-referendum expert viewed that Parliamentary system of Government was an outcome of politics of Islamist En-Nehda, which benefitted them alone.[xxii] Others were of the view that participation in a political process is more important and a primary national duty while Yes/No debates are secondary issues.[xxiii]
There were not many takers for the referendum as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, (Venice Commission)[xxiv] Joseph Borell said that broad consensus among the political parties and the civil society is necessary for the success of the referendum and low turnout in this referendum would fail to achieve this objective.[xxv] It is worth mentioning here that Kais had termed the call of Venice Commission in May 2022 to hold the legislative election before the referendum as an intervention in the internal affairs of the country.[xxvi] On its part, the US State Department said that new Constitution can affect human rights in Tunisia and it also expressed its concerns over such a low turnout in the referendum.
Conclusion
One can conclude that this referendum has put Tunisian politics on a different trajectory and the democratic journey of the past one decade is likely to be stalled. The new Constitution has given an unlimited power to the President and, hence, the Parliament is likely to become subservient to the office of the President. The emerging scenarios are likely to weaken the democracy and political pluralism and, in this process, political parties would also lose their relevance as a pressure group, which is a hallmark of any democracy.
*****
* Dr. Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, Sapru House, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views are of the author.
Endnotes
[i] AD232: Supports for Democracy Dwindles in Tunisia, Dispatch, AFRO Barometer, September 5, 2018, Accessed https://bit.ly/3POw9bx July 31, 2022
[ii] Sharan Grewal, Tunisian Democracy at a Cross Road, Brookings Institute, February, 201921, Accessed https://brook.gs/3zdlBeQ July 31, 2022
[iii] The revolution in Tunisia which began in December 2010 and forced the long-serving President Ben Ali to flee the country is also called the Jasmine Revolution
[iv] Clair Parker, Tunisia President Removes Prime Minister, Dismisses Government and Freezes Parliament, Washington Post, July 26, 2021,Accessed https://wapo.st/3zfbYwk July 31, 2022
[v] Sharam Grewal, Kais Saied’s Power Grab in Tunisia, Brookings, July 26, 2021 Accessed https://brook.gs/3POOFk3 July 27, 2022
[vi] 2014 Tunisia Constitution, Accessed https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Tunisia_2014.pdf July 22, 2022
[vii] Tunisian President Wants Debate on New Political System, Constitutional Amendment, Reuters, June 16, 2021, Accessed https://reut.rs/3Q6TPYf July 25, 2022
[viii] Tunisia Labor Union: Referendum decree on new constitution is not binding, Middle East Monitor, May 28, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3bdpXLn July 30, 2022
[ix] How Tunisian Streets Reacted to the Referendum, Euro News (Arabic ) July 25, 20222, Accessed https://bit.ly/3Jxlgc1 July 30, 2022
[x] Zaheer Ismail, Saied’s Referendum is revenge against November Revolution, Tunis Ultra ( An Arabic Daily ) July 26, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3BpWA2Z July 30, 2022
[xi] Referendum Turnout: Embarrassment and Stake, Tunis Ultra ( An Arabic Daily ) July 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3JjbUQS July 30, 2022
[xii]Saied reveal his Next Step, Al Jazeera, July 27, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3SgGdLW July 28, 2022
[xiii] 94% Favored referendum while Opposition is skeptical, BBC Arabic, July 25, 2022,Accessed https://bbc.in/3BspfV2 July 26, 2022
[xiv] Nabil Hajji: There are 46 mistakes in new constitution, Mozayek (An Arabic Portal), July 28, 2022 Accessed https://bit.ly/3Jg3gCK July 31, 2022
[xv] Zaheer Ismail, Saied’s Referendum is revenge against November Revolution, Tunis Ultra (An Arabic Daily) July 26, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3BpWA2Z July 30, 2022
[xvi] Saied reveal his Next Step, Al Jazeera, July 27, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3SgGdLW July 28, 2022
[xvii] How Tunisian Streets Reacted to the Referendum, Euro News (Arabic) July 25, 20222, Accessed https://bit.ly/3Jxlgc1 July 30, 2022
[xviii] Saied meets Bouden and asks to prepare decree, Mozayek (An Arabic Portal), July 27, 2022 Accessed https://bit.ly/3bhoTWJ July 30, 2022
[xix] Tunisia Constitution Committee head condemns president’s draft, Aljazeera, July 3, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3vrcTIQ July 30, 2022
[xx]Low Turnout in Referendum, Arabic Post, July 25, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3Sec0xm July 26, 2022
[xxi] 94% Favored referendum while Opposition is skeptical, BBC Arabic, July 25, 2022, Accessed https://bbc.in/3BspfV2 July 26, 2022
[xxii] No Long Queue at Polling Booths, Aljazeera, July 25, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3Q3yYFq July 27, 2022
[xxiii] How Tunisian Streets Reacted to the Referendum, Euro News (Arabic) July 25, 20222, Accessed https://bit.ly/3Jxlgc1 July 30, 2022
[xxiv] It is an advisory body of Council of Europe on constitutional matters , created in 1990
[xxv] EU: Referendum Saw a Low Turnout and Consensus Is Must, Tunis Ultra, July 27, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3oFDJJt July 30, 2022
[xxvi] Saied: Venice Commission Repot is an Intervention, Tunis Ultra, May 30, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3PPaHmS June 23, 2022