After a series of failed negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia and several other regional and global endeavours to persuade Ethiopia against its unilateral policy at Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia went one step further on February 20, 2022 when it started electricity generation in the controversial GERD. This move on the part of Ethiopia did not come as a surprise given the mix of growing claims of Ethiopia over the years on the Nile River and no-headway in the negotiations among major stakeholders amid deepening regional and global divide over the issue. This defiance on the part of Ethiopia is likely to deepen the crisis further and offers a grim hope for any solution to the crisis in the near future.
On February 20, 2022, Prime Minister (PM) of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed inaugurated the first phase of power generation at GERD and later tweeted that it is the birth of a new era and it is good news for our continent.[i] One of his senior officials stated that this great dam was built by the Ethiopians, not only for Ethiopians rather for all African brothers and sisters, and here we have come to the day for which every Ethiopian prayed and scarified”.[ii] Soon, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the unilateral start of the turbine operation in the GERD is nothing but a breach of its own obligation under the Declaration of Principles Agreement signed by Ethiopia in 2015[iii] and an attempt to impose a fait accompli.[iv] On the other hand, Sudan, another party to the dispute said that unilateral operation of the turbine for power generation is incompatible with the spirit of the cooperation. [v]
PM Abiy however assured the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan in particular, that the benefit of the electricity from the dam will be mutual. He also stated that Ethiopia would export pollution-free electricity to Europe through Sudan and Egypt which would raise revenues for Sudan and Egypt. Apart from assuaging the fears of Sudan and Egypt, he addressed his own people as well when he said that the power generation would end the plight of those who have been carrying wood on their backs for decades.[vi] On January 5, 2022 Abiy had held his cabinet meeting at the site of construction of GERD[vii] which was a symbolic show of his determination to go ahead with the project despite the resistance from Sudan and Egypt and it was also an indication that his government could start the generation process anytime soon as it was the part of Abiy’s last election (July 2021) manifesto that the production would start within hundred–day of his re-election.[viii]
It can be recalled here that GERD has been a source of conflict among Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt since its construction started in 2011. The key conflict is between Egypt and Ethiopia because Egypt considers the Nile River on which the GERD is built as a lifeline for its population. Egypt is under constant fear that any filling of the dam and subsequent electricity production would deprive the country of its annual quota of 55.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water from the Nile River. Egypt is also fearful of the growing control of Ethiopia of the Nile through the GERD which would usurp Egypt of its historical claim over it. Egypt is not opposed to the filling of the dam but wants a timeframe for its filling and is averse to the idea of its speedy filling as being pursued by Ethiopia. All the recent efforts both regionally and globally have failed to resolve the crisis. Egypt had raised the issue at United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2019; again it was taken to the African Union in July 2020 and once more to the UN Security Council in July 2021 but in a vein.
One of the thirteen turbines in GERD started working on Sunday and is expected to produce 375 Megawatt (MW) of electricity in its first stage, which means that around 5% of what was planned through the GERD has already been achieved.[ix] The unilateral decision of Ethiopia to start electricity production is being seen as a major turning point in the history of this controversial project which would further vitiate the geopolitical environment in the region, particularly between Egypt and Ethiopia as Egypt fulfils its 90% of hydro-related requirement through the Nile River only. Ethiopia first unilaterally decided to go ahead with two rounds of filling of the dam (in 2020 and 2021) despite protest from Egypt and Sudan and now it has started the power production which might require a new mechanism to convince Ethiopia to revisit its unilateral approach vis-a-vis the GERD.
Ethiopia aspires to revive its economy through the dam and hopes to emerge as the largest hub of electricity production in the continent with a productive capacity of 5000-6500 MW.[x] One of the experts on GERD associated with the Brooking Institute in Washington said that the electricity generation would help Ethiopia to revive its economy, devastated by bloody war in the country, COVID-19 and growing global fuel prices.[xi] It can be recalled here that Ethiopia maintained a 10% growth rate in recent years but due to COVID-19 and other domestic crisis, it came down and is expected to remain low in the near future too. By this power generation and later exports to the countries like Sudan, Djibouti, and Kenya, Ethiopia can improve its economy. Ethiopia has reportedly generated revenue worth US$ 66.4 million by electricity exports to Sudan and Djibouti in 2019.[xii] Ethiopia is an aspirant regional power and by earning revenue through power production, the country might fulfil its dream of becoming a regional power and also could rival the political and strategic hegemony of Egypt which is already reeling under immense economic pressure and other security issues.
Though there is no immediate threat to water flow to Egypt or Sudan because turbine operation technically requires releasing the water stored in the dam.[xiii] But once the production starts regularly without coordination with Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia would have full control over the Nile and be free to utilise it at its own wish which might jeopardise the long-term interest of downstream countries, particularly Egypt. Experts are of the view that the operation of the turbine in summer would adversely impact both Sudan and Egypt.
Large hydroelectric power plants such as the GERD are usually filled in the rainy season and emptied in the dry season. But regular floods and draughts in the region and the absence of coordination among stakeholders over holding and releasing of waters would have implications for the operation of the High Dam in southern Egypt, which covers around 6% of electricity requirements in Egypt. Other worries for both Egypt and Sudan are whether they would receive enough water during the dry years as Ethiopia has never committed to the fixed quota of water supply for both Egypt and Sudan which has remained one of the key demands of Egypt. After the start of power production, both Sudan and Egypt seem to have been left with little choice but become subject to Ethiopian authority and would be forced to accept whatever Ethiopia offers.
Meanwhile, Egypt has always contested the claims of Ethiopia when it comes to the success story of the GERD. Here again Egypt is sceptical of Ethiopia’s claim of beginning production because the fountain that is generated from the operation of the turbine is not shown in any of the images released. The Egyptian authority is of the view that goal of the celebration was merely to raise the morale of the Ethiopians.[xiv] Dr. Mohammad Nasr Allam, former Irrigation Minister of Egypt even claimed that in the best of the situation, a single turbine cannot produce more than 50 MW and argued that the whole euphoria was intended to prepare Ethiopians for the third stage of filling of the dam.[xv] A teacher of geology and water at Cairo University believes that the operation of one or two turbines will not harm Egypt or Sudan but will merely elevate the political stature of PM Abiy, even if the electricity generation at GERD can light a single bulb, who is facing a lot of challenges at home amid the ongoing civil war and other security issue and deteriorating economy.[xvi] He also said that Egypt is not opposed to the generation of electricity but it should not harm Sudan and Egypt’s share of the Nile water and Ethiopia should not store more water behind the dam.[xvii]
Surprisingly the reaction of Egyptian authority, unlike past, to the Ethiopian move was very mild and there was nothing except a statement posted on the official website of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry. But people on the social media in Egypt expressed their anger over the lukewarm response and they saw it as a sign of fading diplomatic and strategic clout of Egypt in recent years, particularly after the conspicuous silence of UNSC in July 2021 over filling of the dam by Ethiopia.[xviii] While the streets of Addis Ababa in Ethiopia witnessed a lot of jubilations as one of the citizens tweeted that, “Three historic victories in Ethiopia despite the great challenge: a victory on the fighting front; a victory at the diplomatic level and the victory in its national project”.[xix]
It is also a fact that Ethiopia in the past has faltered many times when it comes to the start of power generation. Earlier they had plans to start production in October 2021 only but it got delayed due to some technical reasons. Even after the start of the production, GERD project director, Kifle Horo said that the start of the electricity production does not mean the completion of the project and Ethiopia still needs 2-3 years to finish the project.[xx]
In the light of the above, one can conclude that there is no solution in sight to the crisis in near future. Ethiopia seems to have not only strengthened its political position but has acquired more bargaining power vis-à-vis Egypt after the start of the GERD. Though Ethiopia has ensured the downstream countries that energy production would inflict no harm to them but the contentious issue of uninterrupted flow of fixed annual quota of water to Sudan and Egypt remain unresolved. In past Egypt’s endeavours to mobilise a favourable opinion failed to yield any outcome while Ethiopia continued to pursue its unilateral policy in absence of hard and tough pressure from any of the regional or global agencies such as the African Union or the UN. One needs to see how Egypt responds as other turbines become operational and if it really impacts the Nile water flow to Egypt.
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*Dr. Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui is a senior research fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: Views are personal.
Endnotes
[i]Egypt Accuses Ethiopia of Violating the Principles, Al-Jareedah, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/33SKCjU February 25, 2022
[ii]Ethiopia Starts Power Production in GERD, Al-Majd, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3vgxK2x February 25, 2022
[iii]Controversy in Egypt after Announcement of Ethiopia of the Start of Power Production in GERD, Al Jazeera, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3pj6M6D February 24, 2022
[iv]What Does the Power Production Mean at GERD, Arabic Post, An Arabic Daily, February 21, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3smIU3T February 27, 2022
[v]Amr Kandil, Unilateral Operation at GERD is Fundamental Breach of Ethiopia’s int’l Commitment, Ahramonline, February 22, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/35vvOYS February 26, 2022
[vi]Ethiopia Starts the Power Production in GERD, Rail Youm, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3IqLeMG February 24, 2022
[vii]Mohamed Saied, Ethiopia to Generate Electricity from GRED amid Negotiations Deadlock, Al-Monitor, January 7, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/354g7Zb February 20, 2022
[viii]Mohamed Saied, Ethiopia to Generate Electricity from GRED amid Negotiations Deadlock, Al-Monitor, January 7, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/354g7Zb February 20, 2022
[ix]What Does the Power Production Mean at GERD, Arabic Post, An Arabic Daily, February 21, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3smIU3T February 27, 2022
[x]Ethiopia Starts Power Production in GERD, Al-Majd, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3vgxK2x February 25, 2022
[xi]Ethiopia Starts Power Production in GERD, Al-Majd, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3vgxK2x February 25, 2022
[xii] Energy Export: Ethiopian Aspirations at the Cost of Egypt, AlArabi-Aljadeed, An Arabic Daily, February 12, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3BTgeCF February 23, 2022
[xiii]What Does the Power Production Mean at GERD, Arabic Post, An Arabic Daily, February 21, 2022,Accessed https://bit.ly/3smIU3T February 27, 2022
[xiv]What Does the Power Production Mean at GERD, Arabic Post, An Arabic Daily, February 21, 2022,Accessed https://bit.ly/3smIU3T February 27, 2022
[xv]What Does the Power Production Mean at GERD, Arabic Post, An Arabic Daily, February 21, 2022,Accessed https://bit.ly/3smIU3T February 27, 2022
[xvi]Experts: Power Production at GERD is Another Peril for Egypt, Arabic 21, An Arabic Portal, February 23, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3smxNYy February 28, 2022
[xvii]Controversy in Egypt after Announcement of Ethiopia of the Start of Power Production in GERD, Aljazeera, An Arabic Daily, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3pj6M6D February 24, 2022
[xviii]Tweet of One Ethiopian on February 20, 2022 Accessed https://bit.ly/3tiHoz8February 23, 2022
[xix]Tweet of One Ethiopian on February 20, 2022 Accessed https://bit.ly/3tiHoz8February 23, 2022
[xx]What Does the Power Production Mean at GERD, Arabic Post, An Arabic Daily, February 21, 2022, Accessed https://bit.ly/3smIU3T February 27, 2022