Oslo, the Norwegian capital has served as a neutral stage for many disputes. Among others, Israel and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) secured their first agreement in 1993. Talks between the Sri Lankan government and LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) was also hosted by Oslo in 2006 and recently the Oslo channel was revived once again – this time for Afghanistan.
A Taliban delegation led by Foreign Minister of the interim government Amir Khan Muttaqi went to Oslo for a three-day visit between 23 and 25 January 2022. The Taliban representatives held closed-door meetings with women’s rights and human rights activists from Afghanistan on the first day of the visit. That was followed by talks between representatives from the Western countries namely, United States (US), France, Britain, Germany, Italy, the European Union (EU) and Norway and Taliban. It was their first visit to Europe since recapturing power in August 2021. Prior to this Taliban representatives had travelled to Russia, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan, China and Turkmenistan for official meetings.
On the second day of the visit, the Taliban representatives met senior French foreign ministry official Bertrand Lotholary, Britain’s special envoy Nigel Casey, and members of the Norwegian foreign ministry. and during the course of that meeting. The Western diplomats laid out what they expected from the Taliban during the talks.[i] EU special envoy to Afghanistan, Tomas Niklasson, wrote on Twitter that he had “also underlined the need for primary and secondary schools to be accessible for boys and girls throughout the country when the school year starts in March”.[ii] The Taliban may have given an affirmative response to that demand given a few days back Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesman for Afghanistan’s government and deputy minister of culture and information, had already declared that the group’s education department would open classrooms for all girls and women in the Afghan New Year, which starts on March 21.[iii] Girls beyond grade 7 have not been allowed back to school since the Taliban takeover in most part of the country and reversal of that has been one of the main demands of women’s rights activists and international community. At the United Nations in New York, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said the talks appeared to have been “serious” and “genuine”.[iv]
Conflicting Agendas
It was expected that the two sides will have different sets of expectations and objectives from the talks. While the key concern for the West was humanitarian aid and human rights; for the Taliban, access to frozen assets and international recognition remained the principal agenda.
Over the past few months, the UN has repeatedly warned that Afghanistan is on the brink of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis with more than half the country facing “acute” food shortages. The recent statistics provided by the UN indicate that almost 24 million people in Afghanistan, about 60 percent of the population, suffer from acute hunger and about 8.7 million Afghans are coping with famine.[v] The World Health Organization (WHO)[vi] had predicted, around 3.2 million children are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition in Afghanistan by the end of 2021, with 1 million of them at risk of dying as temperatures drop. An estimated 22.8 million people, or 55 percent of the population, are expected to face emergency levels of food insecurity between November 2021 and March 2022.
Factors such as war, conflict, chronic poverty, drought, widespread food insecurity have had a protracted presence in Afghanistan. All these (along with the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years) have resulted in millions of Afghans in need of humanitarian assistance. But the political turmoil that took place after the Taliban seized power in August 2021, exacerbated the crisis. Unemployment has skyrocketed and civil servants’ salaries have not been paid for months. The new rulers of Afghanistan are increasingly realising that running the country with empty coffers will not be easy.
Nearly 80 percent of the budget of the Afghan Republic came from the international community which not only funded government Ministries but also public services like healthcare and education. In order to prohibit the Taliban regime from accessing the funds, the US has frozen about USD 9.5 billion of Afghanistan’s central bank reserves. The release of these funds would have given some relief to the Taliban regime. But the US was not willing to budge, as this is the only leverage the international community now has to force the Taliban to respect human rights and especially the rights of women in the country. However, in light of the alarming humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, The US allowed International banks to transfer money to Afghanistan for humanitarian purposes, and aid groups are allowed to pay teachers and healthcare workers in state-run institutions without fear of breaching sanctions of Taliban.[vii]
Meanwhile, despite the Taliban’s repeated appeal for international recognition over the past few months; the coveted prize has not come its way. Knowing that international recognition will pave the way for the funds to flow back into the country, the Taliban’s acting Prime Minister, Mullah Hasan Akhund, during his first public broadcast appearance since he assumed the role in September appealed the international governments to recognise the country’s Taliban administration.[viii] Unlike its previous stint in power, when Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had recognised Mullah Omar’s government, this time not a single nation, not even Taliban’s principal backer Pakistan has recognised the new regime.
Interpretations of the Oslo Talks
Before the talks began the Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt forwarded a rationale for having the talks with the Taliban: noting that economic and political conditions in Afghanistan have created “a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe for millions of people” …the international community is extremely concerned about the serious situation in Afghanistan”. He further stressed that the visit was “not a legitimation or recognition of the Taliban. But we must talk to those who in practice govern the country today.” [ix]
The Taliban delegation was met with protests since the time they landed in Oslo. About 200 protesters gathered in front of the Norwegian foreign ministry in Oslo to condemn the meetings with the Taliban.[x] Women activists who have been facing intimidation by the Taliban after staging small and scattered protests are outraged by the diplomatic efforts. "I am sorry for such a country as Norway for organising this summit, sitting with terrorists, and making deals," said Wahida Amiri, an activist who has protested regularly in Kabul since the Taliban's return.[xi] On the other hand, Jamila Afghani , Women’s Rights Activist from Afghanistan who participated in the talks viewed it as “a positive icebreaking meeting” and observed that negotiators "displayed goodwill”... yet she remained sceptical and said “Let's see what their actions will be, based on their words".[xii]
A few days back, two women activists, Tamana Zaryabi Paryani and Parwana Ibrahimkhel, were seized from their homes in Kabul after taking part in a demonstration; in protest, women activists held photographs of the missing women in front of the visiting Taliban delegation in Norway. The latter, however, responded by denying any involvement in the incident. The Taliban spokesperson, Abdul Qahar Balkhi in an interview to Sky News stated he was not aware of any such incident and stressed that “we (Taliban) do not threaten women ever.”.[xiii]
Davood Moradian, the head of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies now based outside Afghanistan, criticised Norway's "celebrity-style" peace initiative. He argued hosting the Taliban's Foreign Minister "casts doubt on Norway's global image as a country that cares for women's rights, when the Taliban has effectively instituted gender apartheid.”[xiv]
The backlash does not seem to have much effect on the Taliban. It is already selling the visit to Oslo as a victory. Member of the Taliban delegation Shafiullah Azam, during his media briefing after the end of the first day of talks, stated that the meetings with the Western officials were “ a step to legitimise (the) Afghan government,” adding that “ this type of invitation and communication will help (the) European community, (the US or many other countries to erase the wrong picture of the Afghan government.”[xv] Although the Taliban delegation left Norway without making any final statement, but comments made by Taliban delegation during the talks indicate a sense of triumph- which the West seems to have given, by sitting down with them.
Conclusion
The Oslo talks can be seen from the prism of a legitimising action of the West, which is a continuation of a process that began with the signing of the Peace Agreement between the US and the Taliban in February 2020. The critical question is whether the Taliban can gain legitimacy within Afghanistan, from Afghans and live up to whatever promises they make to the international community and the people of Afghanistan. It is important for the international community to set expectations and identify measurable and tangible outcomes that are expected from the Taliban based on specific time frames, and not just vague promises.
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*Dr. Anwesha Ghosh, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
[i] “At Oslo talks, West presses Taliban on rights, girls education.” Al Jazeera, Jan 26, 2022. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/26/west-links-afghan-humanitarian-aid-to-human-rights (Accessed on 26.1.2022)
[ii] Tomas NIklasson (European Union special envoy to Afghanistan),via twitter handle @tomas_niklasson, Jan 25, 2022. Available at: https://twitter.com/tomas_niklasson?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485985330297724935%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2022%2F1%2F26%2Fwest-links-afghan-humanitarian-aid-to-human-rights (Accessed on 26.1.2022)
[iii] “High schools for girls to reopen in March, IEA has no issue with girls’ education: Education Ministry.” The Khaama Press, January 17, 2022. Available at https://www.khaama.com/high-schools-for-girls-to-reopen-in-march-iea-has-no-issue-with-girls-educationnbsp-education-ministry-876875/ (Accessed on 26.1.2022)
[iv] “At Oslo talks, West presses Taliban on rights, girls’ education.”, Op.cit.
[v] “Hunger, Poverty continue to stalk disparate Afghans.”Al Jazeera, Jan 5, 2022. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2022/1/5/in-pictures-afghanistan-desperate-taliban-economic-crisis-poverty-hunger-covid (Accessed on 26.1.2022)
[vi] Country overview, afghanistan. World Health Organization. Available at: https://www.who.int/countries/afg/ (Accessed on 26.1.2022)
[xii] Ibid