President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin held a virtual meeting on 7 December 2021 in an effort to try to diffuse the escalating tension building up as a result of the crisis in Ukraine.
Relations between the two nations have been stressed since the decision of the United States to withdraw from the Anti- Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and support to the ‘colour revolution’ in Georgia and Ukraine. Ruptures have continued to grow over the years for instance, the crisis in Crimea, allegations of Russian interferences in American elections, cyber-attacks on U.S. companies, Russia’s actions against those opposed to the government and its officials, the U.S. withdrawal from nuclear arms control treaty as well as its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Russia opposed North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) actions in Libya and the two nations are on opposing sides in Syria. However, the steady expansion of the NATO in the former Soviet sphere of influence has been the central point of contention and one that has caused considerable concern in Russia.
The Current Crisis in Ukraine
President Putin in an article on the historical links between Ukraine and Russia stated that, “Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, which was the largest state in Europe..... bound together by one language (which we now refer to as Old Russian), economic ties, the rule of the princes of the Rurik dynasty, and ... the Orthodox faith.”[i]. Outlining the links between the people, their common language and faith, over centuries the article states that, “In summer 1945, the historical act of the reunification of Carpathian Ukraine ‘with its ancient motherland’, Ukraine was announced. Therefore, modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era. We know and remember well that it was shaped – for a significant part – on the lands of historical Russia.”[ii]
He stated that, “...that the wall that has emerged in recent years between Russia and Ukraine, between the parts of what is essentially the same historical and spiritual space....Russia is still one of Ukraine's top three trading partners, and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are coming to us to work, and they find a welcome reception and support.”[iii] He further pointed to the discriminatory laws in Ukraine such as the law on indigenous peoples under which Russians are not indigenous people in Ukraine.[iv] Ukraine government’s move to repeal the law on state language policy and the law on education virtually cut the Russian language out of the educational process.[v] Russia has stated that it would support Russian citizens, who make close to 17 % of the population[vi], majority of who live in the eastern provinces in separatist dominated areas of Ukraine.
The United States has been alarmed over the growing military build-up by Russia on its borders with Ukraine. The Kremlin has stated that the U.S. and its allies are building artificial hysteria and accusing Russia of unusual military activity in its own territory when the U.S. through the NATO has brought its forces to Russian borders. President Putin in June 2021 stated, “With regard to military exercises, we conduct them on our territory, just like the United States conducts many of its exercises on its territory. But we are not bringing our equipment and personnel closer to the state borders of the USA when we conduct our exercises. Unfortunately, this is what our US partners are doing now. So, the Russian side, not the American side, should be concerned about this, and this also needs to be discussed, and our respective positions should be clarified.”[vii]
As stated above the growing presence of the NATO has been an issue of contention between the two nations. Russia has distrusted the expansion and pointed that “NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernisation of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.”[viii] Russia has ended its engagement with NATO from 1 November 2021 over the expulsion of eight of its diplomats on charges of spying. Russia suspended its permanent mission to NATO in Brussels and NATO’s staff in Moscow also left in October after their accreditation was withdrawn.
President Biden has reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. President Biden underscored the readiness of the United States to engage in support of confidence-building measures to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, in support of the Normandy Format.[ix] Russia released two documents (on 17 December) outlining the guarantees it seeks from NATO and the United States to resolve the crisis.
The first document ‘Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’, states that Russia and NATO will, “...prevent dangerous military activity and therefore reduce the possibility of incidents between their armed forces... noting that the security interests of each Party require better multilateral cooperation, more political and military stability, predictability, and transparency....”[x] The document also states that the Russia and NATO shall, “exercise restraint in military planning and conducting exercises... maintain dialogue and interaction on improving mechanisms to prevent incidents on and over the high seas (primarily in the Baltic and the Black Sea region).... not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.... not deploy land-based intermediate- and short-range missiles in areas allowing them to reach the territory of the other Parties.... refrain from any further enlargement of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine as well as other States.... not conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine as well as other States in the Eastern Europe, in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.”[xi]
The second document titled ‘Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees’, recognises “...the need for united efforts to effectively respond to modern security challenges and threats in a globalized and interdependent world.” The document lists eight articles of which Article Four states, “The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The United States of America shall not establish military bases in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”[xii] Article Five, Six and Seven calls on both parties to refrain from deploying armed forces and armaments, flying heavy bombers equipped for nuclear and non-nuclear armaments or surface ships of any type, not deploy ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles and refrain from deploying nuclear weapons outside their national territories.[xiii]
Responding to the proposal, North Atlantic Council stated, “...dialogue with Russia would have to proceed on the basis of reciprocity, address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions, be based on the core principles and foundational documents of European security, and take place in consultation with NATO’s European Partners.”[xiv] The United States government has stated that dialogue with Russia would proceed on the basis of reciprocity and any negotiation/discussion will have to be based on the core principles and foundational documents of European security and will include European partners and allies. Talks to discuss the situation have been scheduled between President Biden and President Putin on 10 January 2022 and between NATO and Russia on 12 January 2022. Russia stated that 10,000 troops had finished month-long military drills near Ukraine and would be returning to their permanent bases.
Despite the desire expressed by all parties to talk and deescalate the situation, tensions continue to rise. Ukraine has started to train civilians who have volunteered for combat skills in training programs created and run by the government and private paramilitary groups. The programs are part of the country’s strategic defence plan in the event of a potential invasion by Russia to foster a civilian resistance that can carry on the fight if the Ukrainian military is overwhelmed.[xv]
The United States has a wide range of punitive actions it could employ in the event of Russian military action in Ukraine, including “high impact economic measures”. These include preventing US institutions from buying Russian government bonds and also sanction the secondary market where such bonds are resold, increase the scope and list of Russian banks and corporate under sanctions, place sanctions on individuals close to the Russian government and also exclude Russian banks from the international electronic payment systems such as SWIFT.
The United States has also expressed concerns about the possibility of cyber-attacks by Russia on Ukrainian critical infrastructure such as electricity grid, banking etc. in tandem with troop movement on the border. Cyber-security has been an area of concern in the relations between the two nations, even before the Ukraine crisis. It was on the agenda when the two Presidents meet in Geneva in June 2021, where President Biden listed 16 critical areas that were ‘off limits’ for any cyber-attacks. These concerns are linked to the ransom-ware attacks linked to Russian hackers against U.S. organisations, political parties, companies and critical infrastructure.
Conclusion
Despite the difference, the two global rivals have ensured that channels of communication remain open. The in-person summit in Geneva earlier in the year and the recent virtual meeting, is part of the series of contacts between the two countries including trips by senior officials of the Biden administration since July, and more meetings with Russian officials on neutral ground in Finland and Switzerland to discuss arms control, cyber security, restoring the Iran deal etc.
While cautious optimism remains that the current talks would reduce risks of unintended escalation, nonetheless, all parties are also aware that no turnaround on the situation on the ground is expected anytime soon. While the current talks are a welcome development, they do not guarantee peaceful, stable and predictable relations.
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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Kremlin, “Article by Vladimir Putin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” 12 July 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181, Accessed on 21 December 2021.
[ii] Ibid
[iii] Kremlin, “Article by Vladimir Putin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” 12 July 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181, Accessed on 21 December 2021.
[iv] Kremlin, “Direct Line with Vladimir Putin,” June 30, 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/65973, Accessed on 13 December 2021.
[v] Op. Cit 1, Kremlin.
[vi] Figure has been taken from World Population Review (2021), https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population, Accessed on 28 December 2021.
[vii]Kremlin, “News conference following Russia-US talks” June 16 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/press_conferences/65870 Accessed on 22 December 2021
[viii] Kremlin, “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy 2007,” 10 February 2007, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034, Accessed on 23 December 2021.
[ix] The White House, “Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine,” 09 December 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/09/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine/, Accessed on 23 December 2021
[x] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” 17 December 2021, https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y, Accessed on 21 December 2021.
[xi] Ibid
[xii] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees,” 17 December 2021, https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en#sel=29:1:WS2,29:21:3jx, Accessed on 22 December 2021.
[xiii] Ibid
[xiv] North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, “Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the situation in and around Ukraine,” 16 December 2021, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190373.htm?selectedLocale=en, Accessed on 22 December 2021
[xv] Andrew E. Kramer, “Training Civilians, Ukraine Nurtures a Resistance in Waiting,” 26 December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-training.htmlAccessed on 29 December 2021