A Backgrounder
Only a decade ago amidst the outbreak Arab uprising in 2011, political Islam looked to be a long-term beneficiary and almost an indispensible force in the unfolding political trajectory in the region. Soon the victory of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt), Ennehda (Tunisia) and Justice and Development Party (Morocco) in the elections that followed strengthened this belief further. The Islamists in countries like Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq also carved their own exclusive political domain and majority held the belief that Political Islam would continue to be a decisive force for decades to come.
But soon the situation turned around. The Islamists in Egypt could not survive the anger of the masses and were overthrown in 2013 after one year in power. In Tunisia, the political graph of Ennehda continued to decline and in 2014, they were forced to relinquish the power. Finally in July, 2021 President Qais Said fired the Islamist Prime Minister (PM) and dismissed the Ennehda-dominated government. He also announced to put parliament under suspension[i] and very recently named Ms. Najla Bouden Romdhane as Prime Minister.
The latest to join the rank of losers was the Islamists in Morocco where the Justice and Development Party (JDP) was reduced to number eighth form hitherto number one in parliamentary election, held in September, 2021. The JDP was in power for over a decade after winning two consecutive elections in 2011 and 2016. In 2016 elections, JDP improved its seats tally and secured 125 seats, but this time their strength has been reduced to 13. The defeat of last standing forte of Islamism (JDP) seems to symbolise the people’s growing disenchantment with the politics of religious rhetoric and the old-guards once again proved that they are the veteran of Arab polity and cannot be outmaneuvered.
Before the uprising could reach the shores of Morocco, King Mohammad VI had read writings on the walls and soon sacked the government of the day, disbanded the existing parliament and a series of amendments was introduced in the existing constitution which was ratified in July 2011 in a national referendum with a resounding ‘yes’ vote of 98.5% in its favor.[ii] Under the amended constitution, King was to appoint the Prime Minister only from the party which wins the most seats in the election unlike in the part when the King enjoyed all the rights to name whomever he pleased. [iii] But the King still controls the departments of defence, foreign affairs and internal security and on these issues; he is accountable to none.
Islamists in Morocco: A Decade of Political Journey and the Present Defeat
The JDP is moderately Islamist and was able to craft a political space for itself after eroding popularity of traditional parties such as Istiqlal Party, Socialist Union of Popular Forces and portrayed itself as an anti-establishment entity.[iv] Meanwhile, it is also seen by many in the Arab world as the Moroccan version of Egyptian MBH but it never sought the establishment of Islamic state because they view that Morocco is already an Islamic state.[v]
Before it evolved into the JDP of today, it had many incarnations in the past. First, it was the Islamist Youth Association that was banned in 1976 and soon weathered away. Later, its former members established the “Islamic Group” in 1986 under the leadership of Abdelillah Benkirane[vi] and renamed it ‘Movement of Unity and Reform’, which finally became the Justice and Development Party. In 1997, Islamists were allowed to participate in the elections and in the same year, they secured nine seats[vii] and in elections of 2002 and 2007, JDP got 42 and 46 seats respectively.[viii]
In the election of November 2011, eight opposition parties formed an alliance to fight the JDP but the JDP emerged as the largest party securing 107 seats with 27.8% of total votes.[ix] The JDP, only party occupying the political psyche of the masses through their presence on the streets, grabbed the opportunity and capitalised on the popular resentment against the status quo polity of the past decades. Since the JDP was unable to secure the majority seats, it entered into a coalition with the traditionalist Istiqlal party (60 seats) and National Rally of Independence (52 seats). Abdelillah Benkirane of JDP was sworn-in as the first Islamist PM in the history of independent Morocco.
In the election of October 2016, JDP sprung a surprise by achieving a second consecutive win and got 125 seats when many expected the Authenticity and Modernity Party (AMP), a liberal face in the national politics of Morocco, to win but it came second with 102 seats while Istiqlal party was reduced to 46 from the earlier 60 seats. Since its inception, the AMP is known to be an anti-Islamist block founded in 2007 by former advisor of King Mohammad VI, Ali El Hemma.[x] The party of Aziz Akhannouch, a billionaire and friend-cum-relative of King Mohammed VI, National Rally of Independence (NRI) achieved 37 seats. Abdelillah Benkirane of JDP was again appointed PM but he failed to form the coalition government because the earlier coalition partners of JDP refused to extend supports to the JDP-led government under Abdelillah Benkirane and eventually he was forced to resign in March , 2017 . He was replaced with Saad Eddine El Othmani, a modest figure who lacked the charisma and charm of Abdelillah Benkirane. But El Othmani succeeded in forming the coalition government with the smaller parties like Popular Movement, Party of Progress and Socialism and the Constitutional Union and big party like NRI also agreed to extend support to the government led by El Othmani.
The elections of September 8, 2021 to elect 395-memebrs National Assembly[xi] came as a shock for JDP when it was reduced from 125 seats to 13 rendering all speculations about its possible third consecutive win hollow. Apart from big parties like AMP, NRI and Istiqlal Party, around thirty smaller parties were also in fray to win over the 18 million registered voters out of population of 36 million. The total turnout was 50.35%, slightly higher than 2016 (43%). The NRI secured highest number of seats (86) while in 2011 and 2016; it had secured 52 and 37 seats respectively. In 2021 election, the NRI was followed by AMP with 82 seats while the Istiqlal Party, the Socialist Union Party and People Movement Party achieved 78, 35 and 25 seats respectively. Mr. Aziz Akhannouch, being the leader of the largest winning party (NRI) was named the Prime Minister after he formed an easy coalition with AMP and Istiqlal party.
The JDP slipped from number one to number eight and they could manage to win only 13 seats which was the worst performance by any party in recent elections. Many of the prominent members failed to save their seats and even PM Saad Eddine El Othmani could not win his own seat from the capital town of Rabat. The performance of the JDP was equally disastrous in regional and local body election. In the regional election, their seats were reduced to 777 from 5021 (2015) and in local bodies’ election, figure came down to 18 from 678 (2015).[xii]
Why this Shocking Defeat for Islamists?
Given the constant decline of the Islamist forces across the region in last one decade, one would perhaps agree with the mentor of Ennehda, Ghannouchi when he noted that, “when the Islamists are on the streets, they inspire million, but when they are in power, they become a foe”.[xiii] The political graph of the MBH in Egypt and Ennehda in Tunisia has declined significantly in the recent past and a similar fate was suffered by the JDP in Morocco.
Many analysts and political commentators have explained this defeat through their own narrow and wider perspectives but one common thread among all the explanations has been their inability to resolve economic and social crisis in the country. In last one decade, people of Morocco have realised that the Islamists (read JDP) are more inward looking and when the political and economic crisis requires a political solution, they are engrossed in religious discourse and most of the time they spend on managing the coalition partners. In the face of growing economic and political crisis, all the traditional agenda of moralist polity, ethical behaviour and an utopian Islamist state have lost their appeal and people want a government capable of changing their daily living conditions.[xiv] When the JDP had come to power in 2011, they had promised to fight corruption, unemployment and poverty but delivered none. In last one decade, JDP has earned many enemies. Majority of the government social schemes were aimed at alleviate the poverty and the unemployment which antagonized the middle and higher middle class. They also failed to build the trust with the media houses and were unable to bring their economic performances to the public notice.
The mechanism of power sharing between the government and the Royalty also seems to be largely responsible for this defeat. The Royalty has full control over foreign affairs, internal security and economic affairs but people directly hold the government responsible for faltering on these issues. For example, the Islamist JDP has been condemned for normalisation of relations between Morocco and Israel but the fact remains that foreign policy is directly looked after by the Royalty. But it was the PM who was seen in front of TV camera signing the deal that antagonised many, bearing the adverse impacts on the victory prospects for the JDP. Further the party is organically linked to its religious wing, Unity and Reform Movement, which too was opposed to the deal[xv] and eventually dissuaded many of it cadres from voting for JDP. This time the cadres of the banned Religious and Virtue Party extended no support to the JDP for its stance on Israel and hence party lacked cadres on the ground to work and mobilise the people at the polling booth, a duty which it used to do enthusiastically in the past. A large section of the Moroccans following the signing ceremony believed that the party has duplicity and what it preaches, does not practice and most of its slogans are about securing votes and there is no convergence between its slogans and its actions.
The JDP very often acted more as a Royalist than an independent party or the government and it was well evident in its crushing of the Hirak Rif movement[xvi] in 2017, which tarnished its image and made people believe that JDP was not more than political wing of the Royalty.[xvii] Over the years, the JDP never resisted the Kingdom on many of the issues like labour laws, new economic policies and human rights and rather very often sided with the Makhazan (Royal coteries and core officials). It always succumbed to royal pressure and many believe that the JDP had become a face of a cosmetic democracy where people’s votes had no value.
The politics of factionalism has weakened the party for long, particularly after the removal of Prime Minister Abdelillah Benkirane in March 2017.[xviii] The removal of Abdelillah Benkirane as General Secretary of JDP in the 8th party convention in 2017 also damaged the party because he had a huge clout in the party and in last two elections; it was his charismatic political appeal that had helped expand the electoral base of the party. Many of the party cadres did not take part in the election or campaign this time because they were less ideological and more committed to Abdelillah Benkirane who had almost become obscure in September elections.
No particular discourse was crystallised during the last decade which could appeal to the masses as the JDP’s politics and its agenda looked almost redundant for a common voter. The party was suffering from generational syndrome as well where the founders of the party still adhere to old ideological dictum while the youth have different aspirations and called for keeping pace with the changing political realities. One of the leaders of the Reform and Unity Party said that the JDP had lost all appetite for victory and it is ridden with psychology of defeat and has become a victim of loss of moral and ambition and is suffering for long from internal factionalism.[xix]
Perhaps it was also a punitive vote for the ruling party because it failed to control the COVID-19 and Morocco even today is one of the worst-hit countries in the region and a latest report suggests that 14413 people so far have died due to COVID-19.[xx] The common people thought that fighting COVID-19 has not been a priority of the JDP and whatever little bit has happened is at the behest of the coalition government and party on its own had done nothing. One of the women on the eve of voting commented on the Islamists as follows: “The voters felt that the party had abandoned the real battles and its political role, as it was dominated by hesitation, silence and negative withdrawal.”[xxi]
The COVID-19 further worsened an already poor economy because businesses and public enterprises were shut down for months and government was seen doing nothing and rather found putting blame on others. Amid the height of COVID-19, the national economic growth receded by 1.1 % in first quarter of 2020 and by 1.8 % in second quarter and the trade deficit has also reached to 23.8 % in 2020.[xxii] The tourism, one of the pillars of Moroccan economy also hit all time low as there was a decline of 65% in first quarter of 2021 in comparison to 2019 and one estimate has projected that this sector might lose the revenues worth US $ 14 billion between 2020 and 2022. [xxiii]
The government adopted several unpopular measures like removal of subsidy on petroleum and it recently introduced a contractual system in schools depriving the teachers of job security, reduced the retirement age for the government officials. It also privatised many public schools making education a costly affairs, launched a campaign to replace Arabic with French language in the discipline of science - a move by a party which always projected itself as a torchbearer of Arab-Islamic identity. [xxiv] Due to a series of liberal economic policies, the gap between the poor and rich has reached to an unprecedented level in the last one decade. Health and education were almost privatised causing additional economic burden for middle and lower class people. According to official economic statistics, 10% of the richest Moroccans own eleven times more wealth than owned by the poorest 10% of Moroccans.[xxv] What further disenchanted the middle-aged voters was authorisation of the narcotic cultivation for the purpose of drugs manufacturing[xxvi] that created a lot of outcry amongst the parents who thought this would spread large-scale addiction among their children.
One of the most important reasons, repeatedly being cited by the JDP for their defeat is the major change in the electoral law, approved in March 2021 despite opposition from the JDP. Since 2002, Morocco practices the proportional representation system but in March 2021, they approved a new law which stipulates that that proportional representation of the greatest remainder which hitherto was calculated on the basis of valid cast votes, would now be calculated on the basis of registered vote alone and hence allocation of numbers of seats to respective parties will be based not on total number of votes one received but instead of total number of registered votes in particular constituency. In a particular constituency, total registered votes would be divided by total number of the candidates and the law is known as electoral quotient.[xxvii] It means no party will be able to win the majority of seats despite getting the largest number of votes. Under this system, votes do not matter but what matters is if one is registered or not and the Islamists have been the major victim of this new law. This law will primarily deprive any party of wining the majority and will strengthen the coalition politics and in terms of number, even a smaller party can get a place in the parliament. Finally it would do away with the competition among major parties like the JDP. The new law has also done away with 3 % bar approved in 2002, which stipulated that no party is allowed to enter the parliament if it does not cross the threshold of 3% which finally helped the smaller parties. These laws along with other economic, political, ideological and factional factors also doomed the prospects of the JDP. [xxviii]
Conclusion
What happened with the Islamists in Morocco can be said to be a reflection of a larger treatment meted out to the Islamists across the region. But this defeat can also be seen as an outcome of anti-incumbency because they were in power for the last ten years and failed to bring any visible changes in the socio-economic spheres of the country. Further, COVID-19 diminished their prospect of victory in this election not only because of the inefficiency in managing the COVID-19 by the incumbent government but the adverse and long-term impact it had on the economic lot of the people who could not forget their suffering. Beside internal division and factionalism, the normalisation of relationship with Israel during the JDP rule and moreover undefined division of power and responsibility between the Royalty and the government made the JDP to bear the brunt. There is large-scale information deficit among the people about the legislative and executive structure in the nascent democracy of Morocco where the King always undermines the power of the government and the parliament. This defeat has also conveyed a message that the era of ideology-based politics is weathering away and the time has come when people’s electoral choice is driven more by their day-to-day needs and requirements and the youths are no more hostages to religious sloganeering or rhetoric. Finally, what makes the Islamists in Morocco still relevant in national politics is that they have been ousted through same law and same ballot box through which they had come unlike in Egypt or Tunisia and for them the doors are still open if people repose their trust in them and the Islamists adapt to changing political realities.
*****
*Dr. Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views are of the author.
End Notes
[i]Hussain Qadi, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt: Nowhere Islamist in Power after decade e of Uprising, Alhurrah, September 12, 2021, Accessed https://arbne.ws/2YbAa3Q October 7, 2021.
[ii]Magdi Abdelhadi, How Morocco’s king deal a blow to Political Islam, BBC, September 16, 2021, Accessed https://bbc.in/3mmGdeb September 30, 2021
[iii]Nofel Sharqawi, Why Islamists were defeated in Moroccan Election, Independent Arabic September 10, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/3uCtiJ1 October 3, 2021
[iv]Observers: Normalisation is reason behind Islamist defeat, Andalusia Agency, September 9, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/2YiqftC October 6, 2021
[v] Avi Max Speigel, Young Islam, The New Politics of religion in Morocco and the Arab World ( Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press, 2015), P.n 56
[vi] Adel Abdel Ghaffar & Bill Hess Islamic Parties in North Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, Broking Doha Centre, July 22, 2018, Accessed https://brook.gs/3BrcFT2 October 5, 2021
[vii]Observers: Normalisation is reason behind Islamist defeat, Andalusia Agency, September 9, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/2YiqftC October 6, 2021
[viii]Adel Abdel Ghaffar & Bill Hess Islamic Parties in North Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, Broking Doha Centre, July 22, 2018, Accessed https://brook.gs/3BrcFT2 October 5, 2021
[ix]Observation of Parliamentary Election of Morocco in 2016, Council of Europe, November 30, 2016, Accessed https://bit.ly/2ZMJBHL October 6, 2021
[x]Ali Bakir, The Rise and decline of Political Islam: What is Next, TRT World, September 10, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/3mnv8cO October 6, 2021
[xi] Out of 395, 305 were reserved for party list and rest 90 was reserved for national list of which two third for women and one third for youth below the age of forty years.
[xii]Hussain Qadi, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt: Nowhere Islamist in Power after decade e of Uprising, Al-Hurrah, September 12, 2021, Accessed https://arbne.ws/2YbAa3Q October 7, 2021.
[xiv]Moroccan Election: Reasons behind political Tsunami, France 24, September 9, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/2YeIzDx October 2, 2021
[xv]Nofel Sharqawi, Why Islamists were defeated in Moroccan Election, Independent Arabic September 10, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/3uCtiJ1 October 3, 2021
[xvi] In 2016, in mountainous region of Morocco against the corruption, unemployment, poverty and discriminatory policy of h government and several of its leaders arrested which late escalate din 2017 and protestants had to face estate’s crackdown
[xvii]Abubakar Al-Jamee, What are the reasons for defeat of Islamist in Morocco, Orient XXX, September 27, 2921, Accessed https://bit.ly/3uyKeA2 September 30, 2021
[xviii]Sami wasaam, Moroccan Lection: Reasons for this major defeat of FJP, Al-Hurrah, An Arabic Daily September 9, 2021, Accessed https://arbne.ws/3uBUJCT September 25, 2021
[xix]Nofel Sharqawi, Why Islamists were defeated in Moroccan Election, Independent Arabic September 10, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/3uCtiJ1 October 3, 2021
[xx]Morocco registers new 668 COVID-19 cases, Hespress, An Arabic Daily October 7, 2021 Accessed https://bit.ly/3FkSjgG October 7, 2021
[xxi]Mahdi Zaydavi, The last forte of Islamists in Arab: Why the rule of JDP end in Morocco with such a ruin, Maydaan, An Arabic Daily September 12, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/3D7uOpE September 15, 2021
[xxii] Yasmina Abouzzohour, Coping with the COVID-19’s Cost: The Example of Morocco, Brooking, December 20, 2020 , Accessed https://brook.gs/3G0pNl4 October 14, 2021
[xxiii] Yasmina Abouzzohour, Coping with the COVID-19’s Cost: The Example of Morocco, Brooking, December 20, 2020 , Accessed https://brook.gs/3G0pNl4 October 14, 2021
[xxiv]Magdi Abdelhadi, How Morocco’s king deal a blow to Political Islam, BBC, September 16, 2021, Accessed https://bbc.in/3mmGdeb September 30, 2021
[xxv]Moroccan Election: The reason for defeat of JDP and the Arab Media, BBC Arabia, September 13, 2021, Accessed https://bbc.in/3B1BK6Z September 20, 2021
[xxvi]Mahdi Zaydavi, The last forte of Islamists in Arab: Why the rule of JDP end in Morocco with such a ruin, Maydaan, September 12, 2021, Accessed https://bit.ly/3D7uOpE September 15, 2021
[xxvii]Fatima Zohra Bouaziz, Morocco passes electoral law that will limit Islamists’ clout, Atalayar, March 6, 2021Accessed https://bit.ly/3oqmIEf September 15, 2021
[xxviii]Magdi Abdelhadi, How Morocco’s king deal a blow to Political Islam, BBC, September 16, 2021, Accessed https://bbc.in/3mmGdeb September 30, 2021l