Afghanistan remains an important country for the European Union (EU) and its member states where, in the past two decades they have committed not only militarily, but also provided humanitarian assistance and developmental aid. The rapid takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban has led to an intense debate in the European countries on concerns like migration, future of aid to the country and rise of terrorism. This paper looks at the reaction from European countries and the EU after the Taliban takeover. It also analyses the emerging concerns related to future of Europe’s Afghan policy.
Reactions from Europe
The dilemma for the leadership of the EU and its member states is how to deal with the new regime in Afghanistan. This has been highlighted in various statements that emerged after the rapid deterioration of security situation in the post-Talibantakeoverperiod. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said in a statement, “Should the Taliban establish a caliphate, they would isolate themselves on the international stage and would not receive diplomatic recognition as a State.”[i] Similar sentiments were also shared by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson when he said that “We don't want anybody bilaterally recognising the Taliban”.[ii] Also, in an earlier statement High Representative of the EU, Josef Borrell said that “if power is taken by force and an Islamic Emirate re-established, the Taliban would face non-recognition, isolation, lack of international support and the prospect of continued conflict and protracted instability in Afghanistan.”[iii]
However, as the Taliban start the process of government formation, the European outlook towards the situation seems to be evolving. There is a growing realisation that they would need to cooperate with the Taliban. This was reflected in the statement of the High Representative on 17 August 2021, “any cooperation will depend on whether Afghanistan’s new rulers respect fundamental rights”. Adding that “the Taliban have won the war, so we will have to talk with them…We willdeal with Afghan authorities such as they are, at the same time remaining naturally vigilant.”[iv]German Chancellor Angela Merkel also, in her speech at Bundestag on 25 August, stated that “goal must be to preserve as much as possible what we have achieved in terms of changes in Afghanistan in the last 20 years”[v], thereby urging the Western countries to maintain dialogue with the Taliban.
To discuss the situation in Afghanistan and to prepare a roadmap for the near-future, the UK reconvened a second meeting of G7 on 24 August 2021. The joint statement emphasised that “Afghanistan must never again become a safe haven for terrorism, nor a source of terrorist attacks on others…any future Afghan government must safeguard the human rights of all Afghans, particularly women, children, and ethnic and religious minorities; uphold the rule of law; allow unhindered and unconditional humanitarian access; and counter human and drug trafficking effectively.”[vi] With regards to the Afghan refugees, the statement highlighted that G7 countries will cooperate with neighbouring and other countries in the region on supporting Afghan refugees and host communities as part of a coordinated long-term regional response. Echoing their previous statements, the G7 emphasised that the legitimacy of the future government of Afghanistan would be judged on the “approach it now takes to uphold its international obligations and commitments” to ensure a stable Afghanistan, affirming that “the Taliban will be held accountable for their actions…”[vii]
Concerns for Europe
The situation in Afghanistan has raised several concerns and questions for the European leadership. These extend from the immediate evacuation of their citizens to the long-term concerns pertaining to their policies related to security, migration, transatlantic relation etc. Following are some of the concerns for Europe –
Irregular migration emerged as the main concern for the European leadership with the perceived deterioration of the security in Afghanistan. European leaders have already called for the need to formulate a plan in response to the refugees from the country, and to anticipate and protect Europe from the major migratory flows. The initial concerns were raised by six EU counties – Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Greece, Denmark and Belgium – in early August, called for continuation of deportation of Afghans whose claims have been rejected. However, on 12 August, Germany and the Netherlands suspended the deportations owing to the growing crisis in the country.
Since then multiple proposals have been presented such as Austria’s suggestion of setting up of deportation centres in countries neighbouring Afghanistan[viii]; building border fences like Greece installing 40 km fence and surveillance system on its border with Turkey[ix]; to EU asking its member states to ramp up their admission quotas for Afghans in need of protection, particularly women and girls[x]. EU Council President Charles Michel also hinted at “partnerships with non-EU countries as part of the solution to migration from Afghanistan”[xi]. While there were reports of EU requesting Turkey to take in Afghans who worked in EU Mission, Turkish government stated said that EU “cannot expect Turkey to take on the responsibility of third countries”[xii] and that it cannot handle additional migratory burden. The EU Council President, Charles Michel, in a press briefing after G7 meeting, also emphasised that the EU will work with the countries in the region, especially Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian nations, to address the different needs of Afghan refugees. The EU will continue to support international efforts to help those who face persecution and other vulnerable Afghans.[xiii]In addition, the EU is determined to keep the migratory flows under control and its borders protected.
Future of aid to Afghanistan is another key issue that needs to be addressed by the EU leadership. The EU provides both developmental and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, with the Taliban taking control of the country, it has pushed the EU to reconsider its financial assistance to the country. In terms of developmental aid, since 2002, the EU has provided approximately €4 billion[xiv] to Afghanistan, making the country the largest beneficiary of EU development assistance in the world. The aid has focused on priority sectors such as peace, stability and democracy; sustainable growth and jobs; and basic social services. In November 2020, the EU had allotted €1.2 billion to Afghanistan for the period 2021-24[xv]. As the funds are contingent on several conditions, including that they be used to promote human rights and fundamental freedoms, especially for women and children - the EU suspended the development aid until the situation was clarified (at the Foreign Ministers meeting on 17 August). There are increased expectations that any future developmental aid to the country will come with greater scrutiny and stricter human rights clauses. In terms of humanitarian aid, the EU plans to continue providing aid to the country. The Union has said that it will boost the current €57 million to over €200 million earmarked for 2021 as humanitarian aid for Afghanistan[xvi]. The EU has funded humanitarian operations in Afghanistan since 1994, providing over €1 billion[xvii]. These funds focus on areas like nutrition, health services, education etc. While the humanitarian aid is channelled through partners like UN agencies[xviii], given the current situation, there are concerns over access to the aid.
Security emerged as a key concern for the European leadership. There are fears in Europe regarding the re-emergence of Afghanistan as a safehaven for the extremist forces. While the Taliban has assured that they will not allow Afghanistan to become one - the recent attacks[xix] reflect the emerging dynamics in the country with extremist groups getting a new shot of confidence. Moreover, according to a report by the UN, the Taliban remain closely aligned with al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups operating in Afghanistan. The same report goes on to highlight that Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K) remains active and dangerous in parts of Afghanistan. As the stability of Afghanistan and the larger region is imperative for Europe given migration and terrorism challenges, it would need to look at some basic questions such as what it can do to alleviate the crisis and how to formulate a concrete policy towards Afghanistan.
Concerns related to the transatlantic alliance and NATO. The high achieved during Biden’s visit to the European continent in June 2021 appear to be diminishing with the evolving situation in Afghanistan. The Afghanistan crisis has led to key realisations in Europe – first, it has led to questions related to its possible impact on NATO and transatlantic cooperation with the European leaders calling for a ‘reassessment of how NATO works’ and for ‘reforming the transatlantic alliance’[xx]. This has led many Europeans to be convinced that they cannot rely on US alone for their security interests[xxi] irrespective of who is occupying the White House. Second, the crisis highlighted the limitations of NATO as well as Europe’s capabilities in safeguarding their own interests in the region without the US strategic assets (evacuation of their own citizens without US support). This dilemma was highlighted in a statement by NATO’s former Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer – he said Europeans “have become addicted to US leadership”, adding that “[they] must develop a capacity to stand on our own feet, militarily and politically” and the crisis in “Afghanistan should be a lesson for Europe”[xxii]. While, the Afghan crisis may reinforce Europe’s push for strategic autonomy in security and defence, it will be a long road before they are able to act autonomously.
Conclusion
Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative called the situation in Afghanistan “a catastrophe for the Afghan people, for Western values and credibility and for the developing of international relations”[xxiii]. From the reactions and concerns stated above, three conclusions can be drawn –
First, the European governments and the EU should have been better prepared. Since the Trump administration signed the agreement with the Taliban in February 2020 on the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by May 2021, European nations and the Union should have worked out a strategy for the withdrawal of troops, aid workers and local Afghan associates. Rather than chalking out the strategy the European leaders remained concerned over potential refugee crisis and assessing the impact of the withdrawal on their security interests. This was underlined by French President Macron during his address to the nation on 16 August 2021. He emphasised that Europe would need to reinforce its efforts to prevent the rise of terror groups in Afghanistan and will have to prepare for the potential flow of irregular migration[xxiv].
Second, with respect to future aid, it appears that any concessions from Europe would depend on allowing some social freedoms, respect for human rights, ending support for international terrorism, etc. The Taliban leadership in their press conference on 17 August 2021 emphasised on respecting women’s rights within the framework of Sharia, security for all the diplomatic missions, Afghanistan soil not meant to be used against anybody etc. - assuring that Afghanistan wants to have very good relations with everybody.[xxv] While the Taliban has, for now, expressed their affirmation for all relevant issues, it remains to be seen whether they will follow through. As the situation in Afghanistan remains fluid, the European countries remain wary of whether the Taliban can be trusted to keep its promises – with Steffen Seibert, German Government’s Spokesperson saying “We do not have any illusions about the Taliban and the essence of their movement.”[xxvi]
Third, it remains to be seen what leverage the European leaders will have over the Taliban and what role, if any, they will be able to play. Pakistan, Russia and China are already poised to increase their influence on the country, leaving little room for manoeuvring for Europe. Still, there remains hope, that the Taliban will negotiate with the EU. As stated earlier, the EU has provided the maximum developmental and economic assistance to Afghanistan, continuance of which would be required to elevate the economic situation in the country. Similarly, the European countries also need the Taliban to facilitate delivery of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan. For the moment, the European countries can only wait and watch how the situation unfolds in Afghanistan.
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*Dr. Ankita Dutta, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are that of the Researcher and not of the Council.
Endnotes
[i] ‘Foreign Minister Heiko Maas talks to the Stuttgarter Zeitung’, 12 August 2021, Federal Foreign Office, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/maas-stuttgarter-zeitung/2476990, Accessed on 24 August 2021
[ii]Reuters, 15 August 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/countries-should-not-recognise-taliban-afghan-government-says-uks-johnson-2021-08-15/, Accessed on 24 August 2021
[iii]‘Afghanistan: Statement by the High Representative Josep Borrell on the ongoing situation’, EEAS,
Brussels, 12 August 2021 https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/103012/afghanistan-statement-high-representative-josep-borrell-ongoing-situation_en, Accessed on 24 August 2021
[iv] ‘Afghanistan: Press remarks by the High Representative Josep Borrell after extraordinary videoconference of the EU Foreign Ministers’, EEAS, Brussels, 17 August 2021, https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/103139/Afghanistan:%20Press%20remarks%20by%20the%20High%20Representative%20Josep%20Borrell%20after%20extraordinary%20videoconference%20of%20the%20EU%20Foreign%20Ministers, Accessed on 24 August 2021
[v]DW, 25 August 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-kabul-evacuations-will-end-in-a-few-days/a-58976708, Accessed on 25 August 2021
[vi]‘G7 Leaders Statement on Afghanistan’, Government of UK, 24 August 2021, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-leaders-statement-on-afghanistan-24-august-2021, Accessed on 25 August 2021
[vii] Ibid.
[viii]Reuters, 16 August 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/austria-calls-deportation-centres-host-afghans-near-afghanistan-2021-08-16/, Accessed on 28 August 2021
[ix]BBC, 23 August 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58289893?utm_source=dailybrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyBrief2021Aug23&utm_term=DailyNewsBrief, Accessed on 25 August 2021
[x]Reuters, 19 August 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/will-afghan-crisis-trigger-new-refugee-crisis-europe-2021-08-19/, Accessed on 25 August 2021
[xi]Politico, 21 August 2021, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-to-call-on-g7-for-global-effort-to-take-afghan-refugees-taliban-afghanistan/, Accessed on 26 August 2021
[xii]Middle East Eye, 22 August 2021, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/afghanistan-turkeys-erdogan-rejects-eu-request-take-fleeing-afghan-refugees, Accessed on 26 August 2021
[xiii] ‘Remarks by President Charles Michel following the G7 leaders’ meeting on Afghanistan’, European Council, 24 August 2021, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/08/24/remarks-by-president-charles-michel-following-the-g7-leaders-meeting-on-afghanistan-via-videoconference/, Accessed on 25 August 2021
[xiv] ‘Afghanistan – International Partnership’, European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/international-partnerships/where-we-work/afghanistan_en, Accessed on 26 August 2021
[xv]Reuters, 24 November 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-afghanistan-un-eu-pledge-idUKKBN28413B
[xvi] Ursula Von der Leyen, Twitter, https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1430079966419505169, Accessed on 26 August 2021
[xvii]‘European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations - Afghanistan’, European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/echo/where/asia-and-pacific/afghanistan_en, Accessed on 26 August 2021
[xviii]Politico, 20 August 2021, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/brussels-playbook-murderous-and-media-savvy-afghanistan-damage-control-eu-border-fears/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=5637600182-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_08_20_04_59&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-5637600182-189693537, Accessed on 27 August 2021
[xix] US troops and Afghans killed in suicide attacks outside Kabul airport, CNN, 27 August 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/26/asia/afghanistan-kabul-airport-blast-intl/index.html
[xx] Debate on Afghanistan, UK Parliament, 18 August 2021https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-08-18/debates/A86142BD-A204-4BC8-BBC0-ACA7BAD7E9F0/Afghanistan#contribution-F1E9749C-6C93-4ABC-BEDD-33CD29B62CC5; ‘G7/NATO – Press Briefing, 10 June 2021, Elysee, https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/news/2021/article/g7-nato-president-emmanuel-macron-press-briefing-elysee-palace-10-jun-2021, Accessed on 27 August 2021
[xxi] Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, “The Crisis of American Power: How Europeans See Biden’s America”, Policy Brief, ECFR, January 2021, https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/The-crisis-of-American-power-How-Europeans-see-Bidens-America.pdf, Accessed on 27 August 2021
[xxii]The New York Times, 23 August 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/world/europe/afghanistan-europe-nato-biden.html, Accessed on 28 August 2021
[xxiii]Reuters, 19 August 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/eus-borrell-brands-afghanistan-events-a-catastrophe-nightmare-2021-08-19/, Accessed on 28 August 2021
[xxiv]Speech by President Emmanuel Macron on the Situation in Afghanistan, 16 August 2021, Elysee, https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2021/08/16/speech-by-president-emmanuel-macron-on-the-situation-in-afghanistan, Accessed on 28 August 2021
[xxv]Al Jazeera, 17 August 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/17/transcript-of-talibans-first-press-conference-in-kabul, Accessed on 28 August 2021
[xxvi]France24, 17 August 2021, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210817-we-do-not-have-any-illusions-europe-seeks-united-response-to-taliban-takeover, Accessed on 30 August 2021