Until 24th July 2021, Tunisia was seen as the only bright spot to emerge out of the morass of the Arab Spring.[i] Other states in the West Asia and North African (WANA) region that underwent the Arab Spring-induced political upheavals such as Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen did not live up to the promise of ushering in the new order. In fact, exactly after a decade, whatever little gains were made during those heady days of Arab Spring seems to have been lost. The old order and vested interests have hit back with vengeance and are firmly entrenched in countries like Syria and Egypt. In Yemen and Libya, where civil war is still raging and the meddling of foreign powers has worsened the situation, the new order is yet to emerge. Tunisia was considered as the sole exception to this list as the North African country that not only ended the old, authoritarian order but also transitioned successfully to the democratic form of governance. At least, for the outside world, Tunisia seemed to be on the right path. However, all was not well in this ‘successful’ country and the events of 25th July have raised difficult questions for these very assumptions.
On 25th July, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied assumed executive powers, sacked Prime Minister (PM) Hichem Mechichi, and suspended the Parliament for 30 days. He deployed the security forces in the capital Tunis, especially around the Parliament to disallow legislators from entering the building, forced justice and defence ministers to resign, and closed the offices of the Qatar-Government funded, TV news network, Al Jazeera.[ii] (Qatar has long been seen as a champion of political Islamists in the region.) For many in the outside world, these steps were seen as essentially anti-democratic in nature and concerns are being expressed about the possible death of democracy in Tunisia. However, the President has assured that he is committed to civil liberties as well as democratic process and that the freeze on Parliament is temporary.[iii] Therefore, the situation in Tunisia is much too complicated to make simplistic assumptions about issues such as the nature of democracy, the growing attraction of authoritarianism and its relationship with the society. As the President announced these measures, a large number of people, defying curfew orders, gathered to celebrate on the streets of Tunis.[iv] It seemed as if many people were happy to see the Government led by Ennahda go. Ennahda, the party with Islamist roots, was probably the biggest beneficiary of the Tunisian democracy and their removal from power has been a welcome development for many. In the past, Ennahda was banned by President Ben Ali and many of its members were in exile. Its leaders returned to Tunisia in the wake of the Arab Spring and since then the party became an important political force.
Map of Tunisia and its Neighbours
(Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/2/10/haftar-overtaking-tripoli-a-nightmare-for-algeria-tunisia)
Tunisia, geographically closest African country to Europe, after independence from France, was ruled by two authoritarian rulers: Habib Bourguiba (from 1956 till 1987) and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (from 1987 till 2011). After the fall of Ben Ali in January 2011, Tunisia became a democratic state, and pursuant to this, Parliamentary elections were held in October 2011.[v] The onset of democracy in Tunisia saw the political rise of the Islamist party, Ennahda. It was similar to what happened across the WANA region. The fall of authoritarian rulers led to the rising political power of Islamist forces. Political Islamists represented by Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt in 2011. Unlike the Brotherhood, adjusting to the demands of democratic politics in the context of Tunisia, Ennahda has made efforts to let go of its Islamist agenda and moderate its ideological orientation.[vi]
In the latest instance, Ennahda’s removal from power has been celebrated across the country. In the southern city of Tozeur, the party offices have been put on fire by the people.[vii] Tunisia’s democratic Governments since 2011 have not been able to deliver political stability. [viii] The country has had nine Governments in a decade.[ix] Since the elections in October, 2019, there have been three Prime Ministers. Before President Saied’s takeover, the intense power struggle was going on between the three main players in the political system i.e. President, PM, and Speaker of the Parliament.[x] President Saied is an independent and invoking the constitutional provisions, he seems to have won the current round. However, the Speaker of the Parliament who is also the influential leader of Ennahda, Rached Ghannouchi has termed it as a ‘coup’.[xi] It helped that the PM and Speaker of Parliament are from Ennahda and the President could count on the growing public opinion against the governance failures of Ennahda.
Tunisia has been facing an acute economic crisis. Unemployment stands at as high as 18% and the economic growth is nowhere in sight with the Covid-19 pandemic still raging.[xii] Women and young people are the worst affected sections of Tunisian society. Unemployment among women is as high as 25% whereas among the youth it stands at a whopping 41%.[xiii] Last year, the Tunisian economy shrank by 8% and the Government’s mishandling of the Covid-19 crisis is likely to affect the economic well-being of the country even further. As the World Bank noted, ‘Tunisia has experienced a sharper decline in economic growth than most of its regional peers, having entered this crisis with slow growth and rising debt levels.’[xiv]
In addition to the teething economic troubles, Tunisia has one of the highest Covid-19 induced death rates in Africa, and the Government has not been able to accelerate vaccination programs. As of now, only 8% of the Tunisian population is fully vaccinated. With the tourism sector- the backbone of the Tunisian economy, facing the biggest brunt of Covid-19, the chances of economic revival appear rather bleak.[xv] The economic crisis and high rate of unemployment under Ben Ali’s regime were some of the major reasons for the popular disaffection that resulted in the Arab Spring in 2010-11.[xvi] Therefore, President’s actions in July 2021 have been seen as the necessary steps to arrest the sliding economy.
Looking at the current political crisis unfolding in Tunisia, it is clear that the economic crisis and the political instability have resulted in the growing frustration with democracy and dominant political parties. Tunisians feel that the democratic politics of a decade has not visibly improved the material conditions of the majority of the people.[xvii] Therefore, for many, trading their hard-won political freedoms in exchange for an effective state that will ensure economic well-being, social safety net and jobs might seem like an attractive option.[xviii] Besides, the fears in the minds of regional players such as Gulf powers about the political Islamists and the growing political power of Ennahda in a strategically important country like Tunisia seem to have emboldened the President in his actions. In fact, influential voices from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have celebrated the fall of Ennahda given its Islamist roots.[xix]
The situation is still unfolding and it would be premature to draw any concrete conclusions at this stage. It would be interesting to see what happens after the 30-day suspension of Parliament is over. In the meantime, National Security Advisor (NSA) of the United States (US), Jake Sullivan spoke with the President Saied. The hour-long call focused ‘on the critical need for Tunisian leaders to outline a swift return to Tunisia’s democratic path.’[xx] Sullivan ‘underscored that this will require rapidly forming a new government, led by a capable [P]rime [M]inister to stabilize Tunisia’s economy and confront the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as ensuring the timely return of the elected [P]arliament.’[xxi] Furthermore, it was also conveyed that ‘as Tunisia’s leaders answer the widely expressed demands of Tunisians for improved standards of living and honest governance, the United States and other friends of the Tunisian people stand ready to redouble our efforts to help Tunisia move toward a secure, prosperous, and democratic future.’[xxii] The language and formulations in this readout are rather interesting with the US appearing to be supportive of the latest moves of President Saied.
In this context, it would be interesting to observe if and when the President Saied reinstates the Parliament and appoints a new PM; or whether he continues to rule using his newfound powers. The role of domestic political opinion and the international community, especially in the WANA region, would be critical in this regard. With the unstable Libya next door and Algeria undergoing a political transition since the fall of Abdelaziz Bouteflika in 2019, political stability along with the economic revival are likely to be paramount concerns for Tunisia.
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*Dr. Sankalp Gurjar, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Steven A Cook, “Miscalculating Tunisia”, Council on Foreign Relations, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/miscalculating-tunisia (accessed on August 5, 2021)
[ii]Ibid
[iii] Claire Parker, “Influential voices in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE celebrate Tunisia turmoil as blow to political Islam”, The Washington Post, July 27, 2021. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/27/tunisia-gulf-information-campaign/ (Accessed on August 6, 2021)
[iv] Francesca Ebel, “Tunisia’s Popular Coup?”, Newlines, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/tunisias-popular-coup/ (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[v]BBC News, “Tunisia Profile: Timeline”, November 1, 2017. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14107720 (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[vi] Hamza meddeb, “Ennahda’s Uneasy Exit From Political Islam”, Carnegie Middle East Center, September 5, 2019. Available at: https://carnegie-mec.org/2019/09/05/ennahda-s-uneasy-exit-from-political-islam-pub-79789 (accessed on August 6, 2021)
[vii] Francesca Ebel, “Tunisia’s Popular Coup?”, Newlines, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/tunisias-popular-coup/ (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[viii] Steven A Cook, “Miscalculating Tunisia”, Council on Foreign Relations, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/miscalculating-tunisia (accessed on August 5, 2021); Francesca Ebel, “Tunisia’s Popular Coup?”, Newlines, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/tunisias-popular-coup/ (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[ix]BBC News, “Tunisia's PM sacked after violent Covid protests”, August 5, 2021. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57958555
[x] Ibid
[xi] Steven A Cook, “Miscalculating Tunisia”, Council on Foreign Relations, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/miscalculating-tunisia (accessed on August 5, 2021)
[xii] World Bank, “The World Bank in Tunisia: Overview”, June 21, 2021. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tunisia/overview (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[xiii] Ibid
[xiv] Ibid
[xv] Francesca Ebel, “Tunisia’s Popular Coup?”, Newlines, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/tunisias-popular-coup/ (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[xvi]Abubakr Al-Shamahi, “How economic hardship fuelled the Arab Spring 10 years ago”, Al Jazeera, December 17, 2020. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/17/bread-and-gas-economic-boost-needed-after-arab-spring (Accessed on August 5, 2021).
[xvii] Francesca Ebel, “Tunisia’s Popular Coup?”, Newlines, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/tunisias-popular-coup/ (Accessed on August 5, 2021)
[xviii] Steven A Cook, “Miscalculating Tunisia”, Council on Foreign Relations, July 28, 2021. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/miscalculating-tunisia (accessed on August 5, 2021)
[xix] Claire Parker, “Influential voices in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE celebrate Tunisia turmoil as blow to political Islam”, The Washington Post, July 27, 2021. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/27/tunisia-gulf-information-campaign/ (Accessed on August 6, 2021)
[xx] The White House, “Readout by NSC Spokesperson Emily Horne of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Call with President Kais Saied of Tunisia”, July 31, 2021. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/07/31/readout-by-nsc-spokesperson-emily-horne-of-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivans-call-with-president-kais-saied-of-tunisia/ (Accessed on August 5, 2021).
[xxi]Ibid
[xxii] Ibid