After much debate on the validity of conducting elections amidst a global pandemic, Sri Lanka’s parliamentary elections took place on 5th of August 2020. The election signifies the strong return of Mahinda Rajapaksa led Sri Lanka Podujana Perumuna (SLPP) both at the executive and legislative level. The election result is expected to bring number of policy changes.
The result
For the 196 electoral district seats in the 225 member Parliament of Sri Lanka, more than 7000 candidates competed to enter Parliament. With a voter turnout of 71%, the SLPP secured 128 seats, followed by Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) 47 seats, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) 9 seats and the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) only 2 seats. The percentage of votes polled in favour of SLPP showed a significant shift of majority Sinhala votes in favor of the party. Total votes polled in this election are 12,343,302 lesser than the 2019 November presidential election. The SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa had secured 52.25 percent of votes out of the total votes polled.[1]
Party |
Seats
|
Total votes polled |
Percentage of Votes |
National List (indirect seats) |
Total |
SLPP |
128 |
6,853,690 |
59.09 % |
17 |
145 |
SJB |
47 |
2,771,980 |
23.90 % |
7 |
54 |
TNA (ITAK)[2] |
9 |
3,27,168 |
2.82 % |
1 |
10 |
JJB |
2 |
4, 45,954 |
3.8 % |
1 |
3 |
AITC (AhilaIlanki Tamil Congress) |
1 |
67,766 |
0.58% |
1 |
2 |
EPDP (Eelam People’s Democratic Party) |
2 |
61,464 |
0.53% |
0 |
1 |
TMVP (ThamilMakkalViduthalaiPulikal) |
1 |
67,692 |
0.58% |
0 |
1 |
UNP |
0 |
2,49,435 |
2.15% |
1 |
1 |
SLMC (Sri Lanka Muslim Congress) |
1 |
34,428 |
0.30% |
0 |
1 |
SLFP |
1 |
66,579 |
0.57% |
0 |
1 |
MNA (Muslim National Allinace) |
1 |
55,981 |
0.48% |
0 |
1 |
OPPP (Our Power of People Party) |
1 |
67,758 |
0.58% |
0 |
1 |
NC (National Congress) |
1 |
39,272 |
0.34% |
0 |
1 |
TMTK (Tamil MakkalThesiyaKuttani) |
1 |
51,301 |
0.44% |
0 |
1 |
ACMC (All Ceylon Makkal Congress) |
1 |
43,319 |
0.37% |
0 |
1 |
Source: Election Commission of Sri Lanka[3]
One of the important aspects of the present parliamentary election is that for the first time the traditional Sinhala Political parties such as the UNP and the SLFP are not the main contenders, and that position has been ceded to the Rajapaksa led SLPP and the Sajit Premadasa led SJB. The SLPP, a breakaway fraction from the SLFP has retained the old leadership at the helm of the party. On the other hand, the SJB, after its split from UNP has projected a need for young leadership in Sri Lankan politics. Both the SLFP and the UNP failed to secure a decent vote share in this election. The previous unity government formed in 2015 led by both the UNP and SLFP with the support of minority parties, had fallen apart in 2019 due to differences between former President Maithripala Sirisena and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe ending Sri Lanka’s first experiment of a bipartisan government.. On the other hand, the Easter Sunday (29th April 2019) attacks on churches and hotels by the Islamic State inspired youth brought back the security issue to the forefront of electoral politics. This strengthened the support base of the Mahinda Rajapaksa led opposition. Hailed as a leader who defeated terrorism in 2009 in Sri Lanka, it was an easy comeback to active politics for Mahinda Rajapaksa. But, his bid to become the Prime Minister (PM) in late 2019, with the help of former President Sirisena was not successful. By bringing his brother and former defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the SLPP presidential candidate, Mahinda Rajapaksa had set the stage for winning both Presidential elections in 2019 and Parliamentary elections in 2020.
Factors that contributed to the victory of SLPP
Infighting and Lack of alternative political and economic agenda of Sinhala opposition parties
An important factor that contributed to the success of Rajapaksa led SLPP, is the weak opposition from the mainstream parties representing the Sinhala majority. The UNP’s failure to decide on the prime ministerial candidate before the elections caused the rift. Ranil Wickramasinghe’s reluctance to provide a leadership role to Sajit Premadasa despite choosing him as the presidential candidate did not go down well with the traditional UNP voters. A few days before the election, UNP expelled 54 members of the party who obtained the nominations to contest the parliamentary elections under the SJB. The party also planned to expel/replace another 200 local body members who extended support for Sajit Premadasa.[4] The UNP failed to win single seat in this election. Ranil Wickramasinghe who led the UNP to victory by securing 106 seats in the 2015 parliamentary elections himself lost from Colombo. Along with differences over leadership, the UNP’s failure to provide an effective alternative political and economic agenda also cost the party.
The SLPP, having gauged the public sentiment chose not to present a new manifesto for parliamentary elections. It decided to go to the people with the nearly 100 page manifesto used for the presidential elections in 2019. It promised people centric economic development and utmost priority to national security.[5] President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised 50,000 jobs in the state sector for unemployed graduates, skill based education, pensions for farmers and old before the presidential election. As promised, 45,000 youth were asked to join training in state sector by March 2020. The President’s handling of the pandemic, appreciated also by the WHO, added to the SLPP’s popularity.[6] Out of 2839 confirmed COVID-19 cases so far, 2531 have recovered with only 11 deaths.
Emphasis on the ethnic question amid the economic hardships faced by minority community
Unlike during the 2015 Parliamentary elections, the Tamil and Muslim minority parties struggled to put up a united front. In the last parliamentary election, the TNA secured 16 seats in Tamil dominated North-East districts. The SLPP victory in the last presidential election has relegated to the background, issues that minority Tamil political parties wanted the government to look into, such as rehabilitation, resettlement and reconciliation. There was a general consensus among Tamil parties that the end of war did not bring political or economic benefits to the community. But Tamil parties could not present a common agenda for the benefit of the community. Tamil votes got divided among Tamil political parties such as EPDP, ACTC, TMVP, TMTK led by ex-northern Province Chief Minister C.V.Wigneswaran and AITC.
Direct involvement of international actors, in issues concerning Sri Lanka’s ethnic minorities has never been appreciated by the parties representing the majority community. Any mention of federalism and devolution of power to the provinces is considered a threat to sovereignty of Sri Lanka. These sentiments of the majority population were articulated by Mahinda Rajapaksa during the election campaign. He said that “Sri Lanka's main Tamil party TNA will not be allowed to achieve through the election what the LTTE and its slain leader Velupillai Prabhakaran failed to accomplish with the gun”.[7]
Similar to the votes of Sri Lankan Tamil parties, the Muslim community votes too were also divided between SLMC and NC which won one seat each. Post the Easter Sunday Attacks in 2019, Muslim parties have faced suspicion, attacks and isolation.. Traditionally these parties have supported either the SLFP or the UNP at the Centre and their leaders have served in various positions as Ministers but the political space has shrunk considerably for the community in recent years.
These are some of the factors that contributed to the victory of SLPP. Whether, the ethnic minority opposition will be able to bargain with the centre on issues that it considers important remains to be seen.
Initial expectations from the victory: Domestic and India-Sri Lanka Bilateral
The two thirds majority obtained by the SLPP has set the stage for economic and political reforms. Constitutional reform has been the main agenda of the SLPP. First and foremost, the SLPP government would like to repeal the 19th Amendment (19A) of the constitution of Sri Lanka. Mahinda Rajapaksa in his election campaign specifically asked people to give him two thirds majority in Parliament to repeal 19 (A).[8] This Amendment diluted the powers of the executive presidency.[9] Mahinda Rajapaksa’s bid to contest the 2019 presidential elections for the third time could not be fulfilled because of the 19 (A) Amendment. The SLPP government also may undo the whole constitutional exercise that was done under the previous unity government to bring a new Constitution, more accommodative to the plural society of Sri Lanka. Increasing foreign debt, approximately $ 33 billion is a bottleneck in government’s economic agenda. It remains to be seen how the Government is going to manage the post conflict economy which is also hit by the pandemic.
Given the past history of relations between the government led by Rajapaksa (2005-2010) and the Tamil community, one cannot expect much in terms of political solution to the ethnic issue. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa said in the past that ‘the 13th Amendment of the Constitution of Sri Lanka cannot be implemented in totality such as devolution of police and land powers to provinces’.[10] This is an indication that the government may maintain the status quo in the future. In present scenario, it seems the only option left for Sri Lankan Tamil leaders is to bargain for equal economic opportunities, demilitarisation, rebuilding and resettlement of war affected Tamil population.
At the bilateral level, during the ten year rule of Mahinda Rajapaska (2005-2015) India-Sri Lanka relations had to cross a rough path. The end of the war in Sri Lanka was supported by India, but it did not result in peace and rebuilding. On the security front, India had concerns regarding China’s investments and presence. India had also expected enhanced economic cooperation under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) framework through Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). After sixteen rounds of negotiations during 2005-2008, the agreement was shelved due to reservations expressed by Sri Lanka on a provision such as trade in services. Bilateral relations under the National Unity Government of Sri Lanka (2015-2019) seemed balanced for some time, but the agreement on Economic Development Projects that was signed in 2017, could not be implemented owing to differences between former PM and President of Sri Lanka.
Given the current political scenario, it is difficult to definitively say what trajectory India-Sri Lanka relations will take in the future. The economic and security aspect of bilateral cooperation may dominate the India-Sri Lanka relations given the geopolitical and strategic realities in Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Enhancing cooperation in dealing with non-traditional security threats will be a priority. Political issues between India and Sri Lanka may continue to be dormant in coming years, unless the other international actors demonstrate interest in domestic ethnic politics of Sri Lanka. There are currently no major issues of confrontation or difference between India and Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, the recent protest by trade unions against India’s proposed investments in Colombo’s East Container Terminal is a worry. These protests are probably an indication of economic and investment restrictions that India may face in the future in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka will try to leverage its geographic position in Indian Ocean by engaging with various powers. This will have an impact on security of the region, in which India sees itself as a major player.
Conclusion
Majority sentiment for strong government at the centre to overcome economic challenges associated with the pandemic and traditional and non-traditional security challenges, resulted in the victory of SLPP in this election. This election also marked a near end to the careers of traditional Sinhala political parties the SLFP and the UNP. It is up to the SLPP to prove that it will truly be a government for all citizens of Sri Lanka, not just to the voters that voted for the party. The pandemic has opened new challenges for Sri Lanka’s economy. It will try to find new avenues of foreign economic and investment cooperation, which might invite external powers in the region. A stable Sri Lanka and peaceful Indian ocean region is of utmost priority for India. Therefore, given the recent political changes, India may have to walk an extra mile to forge a strong bond with its closest Indian Ocean neighbour.
*****
*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
End Notes
[1]Election Commission of Sri Lanka, Presidential Election 2019, All Island Results, https://elections.gov.lk/web/wp-content/uploads/election-results/presidential-elections/pre2019/PRE_2019_All_Island_Result.pdf.Accessed on August 7, 2020.
[2]Ilanki Tamil ArasuKdchi
[3]Ibid
[4]“UNP expels 54 members contesting under SJB”, 28 July 2020, http://www.dailymirror.lk/top_story/UNP-expels-54-members-contesting-under-SJB/155-192796. Accessed on August 6, 2020.
[5] See SLPP manifesto titled, “Gotabaya A ReconstructedCountry with a FutureVistas of Prosperityand Splendour”, https://gota.lk/sri-lanka-podujana-peramuna-manifesto-english.pdf. Accessed on August 5, 2020.
[6]SL controlled pandemic better than more resourced countries: WHO, 17 July 2020, http://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking_news/SL-controlled-pandemic-better-than-more-resourced-countries:-WHO/108-192139.Accessed on August 5, 2020.
[7]“TNA won't be allowed to achieve through vote what LTTE failed to do with gun PM Rajapaksa”, https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/international/2020/07/30/fgn13-lanka-tna-rajapaksa.html.Accessed on August 5, 2020.
[8] “Sri Lankan PM calls for two third majority to repeal 19th Amendment”, 3 July 2020, https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/sri-lankan-pm-calls-two-third-majority-repeal-19th-amendment. Accessed on August 6, 2020.
[9]It reduced the terms of President and Parliament from six years to five years and re-introduced the two-term limit that a person can have as President. It also restricted the powers of the President in dissolution of Parliament by putting the term limit of four and a half years, constitutional Council was revived and independent commissions were established.
[10] “Certain areas of 13th amendment of the constitution cannot be implemented: Sri Lankan President”, 7 January 2020, http://ddnews.gov.in/international/certain-areas-13th-amendment-constitution-cannot-be-implemented-sri-lankan-president%C2%A0.Accessed on August 6, 2020.