South Asia is one of the most populated regions in the world, marred with political tensions and lack of economic development. The region has not been able to establish strong health infrastructure. With high incidence of multidimensional poverty throughout the region, fighting a major pandemic like that of COVOD-19 will prove a major challenge to each government in the region.
There is a need to understand the nature of the pandemic that the world is faced with, before we assess its impact on South Asia. As per the World Health Organisation (WHO), COVID -19 “is the infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. This new virus and disease were unknown before the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019”.[i]
Amongst the South Asian countries, Pakistan and India have the highest number of registered cases of positive COVID-19 patients, followed by Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Maldives. Nepal and Bhutan have registered low number of cases of positive COVID-19 patients.
Table 1: Data of COVID-19 Cases in South Asia (as on April 06, 2020)[ii]
|
Total Cases |
New Cases |
Total Deaths |
Total Recovered |
Active Cases |
India |
4,314 |
+25 |
118 |
328 |
3,868 |
Pakistan |
3,277 |
+120 |
50 |
257 |
2,970 |
Sri Lanka |
178 |
+2 |
5 |
34 |
139 |
Afghanistan |
367 |
+18 |
7 |
17 |
343 |
Bangladesh |
123 |
+35 |
12 |
33 |
78 |
Maldives |
19 |
|
|
13 |
6 |
Bhutan |
5 |
|
|
2 |
3 |
Nepal |
9 |
|
|
1 |
8 |
India, having the largest population in the region, as well being the second largest populated country in the world, has been taking preventive measures, learning from the various preventive measures taken by China and other affected parts of the world. The initial set of measures was to check passengers travelling from affected countries entering India, which later turned into checking all international and domestic passengers flying in India, creating quarantine centres within the cities or in the suburbs to cater to those passengers either showing symptoms, or are flying in from COVID-19 affected regions and countries. Closing down of public spaces like schools, colleges, universities, shopping malls, etc. was the next step. Specific hospitals and army centres were designated to treat infected COVID-19 patients throughout the country. Notifications restricting government, semi-government officials to work from home, borders of major cities were sealed, and maintaining social distancing within people in the various urban spaces was stressed upon. All domestic air travel was suspended from March 25, 2020 and on March 24, 2020, Prime Minister Modi announced a total lockdown for 21 days from March 25, 2020, which would last till April 14, 2020 Some state governments like Kerala, seemed to be better equipped to tackle an epidemic, like COVID-19 as they had experienced such challenges during the Nipah endemic in 2018.[iii] However, in the last one week there has been a spike in the number of infected patients from 1,251 positive cases on March 30, 2020 to 4,314 cases by April 06, 2020, surpassing Pakistan, to have the highest number of COVID-19 patients in the region.[iv]
For Pakistan, the initial response was tepid though the government stated that it was ready to tackle the COVID-19 challenge, but emphasized more on the economic consequences such as calling for a waiver of international debts of developing countries, like Pakistan, facing the COVID-19 pandemic. While travel restrictions were imposed, the general view appeared to be that for an economically poor country like Pakistan a total lockdown was not possible and people should adapt voluntary house quarantine and self-isolation.[v] It should be noted that the religious political groups, especially the extremist clerics, which remain to be a strong political voice in the Pakistani social fabric, till recently asked Pakistani Muslims to congregate for the Friday prayers, stating that if prayed to, God can save them from this virus.[vi] During his address to the nation on March 30, 2020, Prime Minister Imran Khan also stated that Pakistan cannot afford to have a Wuhan type lockdown, as 25 percent of Pakistani population lives below the poverty line, and 20 percent of the population who lives near the poverty line, whose lives will be affected if such a lockdown is carried out. He declared to constitute a Coronavirus Relief Tigers Force, constituted of Pakistani youth from all realms of Pakistani society, who will deliver the basic necessities for survival and general awareness about the virus to areas where the government will have to declare lockdown to contain the spread of infection. He also mentioned that a special cell will be established in the Prime Minister’s Office ‘to ascertain upward or downward trend of the deadly virus in a week after which the government would devise its future line of action’. He emphasised that Pakistanis should rely on their faith, and adapt the social responsibility of maintaining physical distance with others to deter the spread of the infection.[vii] In the last one week there has also been a spike in the number of infected patients in Pakistan from 1,865 positive cases on March 30, 2020 to 3,277 cases by April 06, 2020. However, due to the higher incidence of infection spreading in India, Pakistan has the second highest number of COVID-19 patients in the region, after India.[viii]
Afghanistan found their first infected cases in those who visited Qom, the epicentre of the pandemic in Iran, which is a holy site for many pilgrims in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Though the Afghan government has declared its preparedness to counter the pandemic, it remains worrisome how the virus will be detected in the various provinces, where Kabul-based governmental control is minimal. It has been mentioned by the Afghan Public Health Ministry that if serious action is not adopted immediately, an estimate of 25.6 million Afghans will be infected and 110,000 Afghans would die from COVID-19.[ix] After four decades of war, presently there are three doctors for every ten thousand Afghans, and one hospital bed for twenty thousand people.[x] As Afghan analyst, Ezzatullah Mehrdad stated, ‘A combination of political rifts, lack of testing, extremely social lifestyles, and a war-torn health care system led to Afghanistan’s failure to contain the novel coronavirus’.[xi] From March 30, 2020 till April 06, 2020, there has been a rise of testing positive CIVD-19 patients from 170 to 367.[xii]
After India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, the fourth highest infection recorded is in Sri Lanka, its first infection detected on March 10, 2020[xiii], when both India and Pakistan were already in the midst of tackling the rising number of positive infections. Even before the first infection was detected, several measures had been put in place. Testing incoming passengers from China, Europe and Iran, quarantining such returnees if found with positive symptoms, suspending Buddhist pilgrimages to India, and suspending flights from specific countries were the initial steps taken by the Sinhala government.[xiv] The government has thereafter moved to an extensive lockdown for 20 days from March 20, 2020., where most local markets were closed, which has hit the major fishing trade has taken a major blow, as quite a large number of fishermen were on the seas when the lockdown was imposed. Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa stated that the country’s economy, which depends greatly on tourism, has faced the biggest challenge. From March 30, 2020 till April 06, 2020, the number of positive COVID-19 patients has risen from 122 to 178.
Though Bangladesh has registered a lower number of infected people till date, the threat of increasing infection remains very high. Steps taken by the government include a decision of a ten day national holiday from March 26, 2020,[xv] suspension of all public transport and calling out ‘the Army to enforce social distancing to curb the spread of the coronavirus’.[xvi] Though Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stated that the government as well as the infrastructure was ready to counter the global pandemic[xvii], but there is a gap between governmental declarations and ground realities. A mass gathering was reported for instance in Raipur on March 18, 2020 where approximately 25,000 people gathered to offer Khatme Shifa prayers to rid the country of the deadly virus.[xviii] The Bangladesh economy also faces a severe challenge as the garment industry has taken a major blow due to the pandemic, where ‘more than $2.6 billion worth of orders in Bangladesh’s garment sector has been cancelled and new cancellations are coming up, as stated to the media by Bangladesh Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi.[xix] This is going to affect some 41 million workers in their wages and livelihood.[xx] From the period of March 30, 2020 till April 06, 2020, there has been a rise of positive COVID-19 patients from 49 to 123.
In South Asia, there are also numerous refugee camps holding Afghans, Kashmiri Pandits, Rohingyas and the like. It should be noted that the concept of lockdown within these camps or maintaining social distancing is virtually impossible and they remain susceptible to getting infected in large numbers.
The two landlocked countries of Nepal and Bhutan have been able to limit the number of infections. Till the article was being written Nepal had recorded 5 positive cases, one recovered and 4 active cases and Bhutan having 4 active cases in quarantine. It has closed land borders with India to minimise the risk of rising infections and is limiting the entry of their citizens coming back to their respective nations, while suspending the entry of all foreign nationals by air or by third countries via land routes.[xxi] However, supply of goods and commodities from India has not been suspended. Nepal went for a week-long lockdown from March 24, 2020[xxii], while there has been no news of any plans of lockdown in Bhutan, though the Bhutanese government has been actively working in quarantining those who have been in physical contact with those who have been tested positive as well as in strengthening the existing infrastructure.[xxiii]
Maldives, the tiny island state, has shown exemplary resilience in countering the pandemic. The first infection identified was on March 7, 2020, and currently 17 positive cases have been identified. But within this time, recovery is reported of 13 out of the 17 positive cases. It is reported that Maldivian government was taking steps from the month of January 2020, to counter the growing pandemic, for instance, restricting incoming international passengers, creating quarantine facilities, along with providing treatment and checking of the existing tourists in the island.[xxiv]Tourism, which is the major income earner for the island nation, has declined sharply, and the Maldivian economy will be challenged in a major way. But Maldives fights on with whatever meagre resources it has at hand.
Statistically, one should notice the steady increase in the rate of positive infections in the region. The following table shows the steady rise of cases when the data is compared between March 20, March 26 and March 29, 2020.
Table 2: Comparing the Rising Trend of Infections in South Asia[xxv]
|
March 20, 2020 Total Cases |
March 26, 2020 Total Cases |
March 29, 2020 Total Cases |
March 30, 2020 Total Cases |
April 5, 2020 Total Cases
|
Pakistan |
456 |
1,106 |
1,650 |
1,865 |
3,277 |
India |
206 |
693 |
1,071 |
1,251 |
4,314 |
Sri Lanka |
66 |
102 |
122 |
122 |
178 |
Afghanistan |
24 |
84 |
120 |
170 |
367 |
Bangladesh |
20 |
44 |
49 |
49 |
123 |
Maldives |
13 |
13 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Bhutan |
2 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
Nepal |
1 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
9 |
As per the above mentioned data, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka have recorded the highest rate of new infections being registered in a week. All over South Asia there has been a major spike of finding new infected patients except that in Maldives and Bhutan. It can be also seen as per in Table 1, that the highest rate of recovery from the infection has been seen in Maldives, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Many countries in the region, are now experiencing spread of the virus through communities rather than from people who had travelled to infected countries, which is being designated as phase three, where the disease will spread more widely among communities. If the lockdown gets extended, the economic impact will be long term, and there will be a need for larger cooperation within the countries in the region, as well as with partner nations throughout the world. This will be a test for the existing political systems and the nature of societies in the region, who will have to jointly work to counter this global challenge.
*****
*Dr. Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are that of the Researcher and not of the Council.
[i]Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19), World Health Organization, March 9, 2020, https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[ii] Coronavirus Cases, Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, Accessed on April 06, 2020 at 18:02hrs
[iii] Wuhan, the COVID-19 epicentre was the first choice for many Keralites as an educational hub with quality and affordable medical courses. Nidheesh M.K., “How Kerala stopped Nipah in its tracks”, Livemint, June 25, 2019, https://www.livemint.com/science/health/how-kerala-stopped-nipah-in-its-tracks-1561483503936.html, Accessed on March 20, 2020
[iv] Please see Table 1 and Table 2 make a comparison within the specified time frames.
[v] “Pakistan’s economic situation incapable of national lockdown: PM Imran Khan”, ARY News, March 22, 2020, https://arynews.tv/en/national-address-on-coronavirus/ accessed on March 26, 2020
[vi]Zia ur-Rehman, Maria Abi-Habib and Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, “‘God Will Protect Us’: Coronavirus Spreads Through an Already Struggling Pakistan”, The New York Times, March 26, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/pakistan-coronavirus-tablighi-jamaat.html, Accessed on March 26, 2020; M Ilyas Khan, “Coronavirus updates: Pakistan imposes curfew to curtail Friday prayers”, BBC News, Islamabad, April 03, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52149688, Accessed on April 07, 2020, Syed Raza Hassan, Ruma Paul, “Pakistan worshippers clash with police trying to enforce coronavirus lockdown”, Reuters, April 03, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southasia/pakistan-worshippers-clash-with-police-trying-to-enforce-coronavirus-lockdown-idUSKBN21L0W1, Accessed on April 07, 2020
[vii] PM Imran Khan addresses Nation on Coronavirus, ARY News, March 30, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zKBtf7poJw, Accessed on March 31, 2020
[viii] Please see Table 1 and Table 2 make a comparison within the specified time frames.
[ix]Ezzatullah Mehrdad, “How Afghanistan Failed to Contain COVID-19”, The Diplomat, March 27, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/how-afghanistan-failed-to-contain-covid-19/, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[x] “Afghanistan: Fears people with coronavirus will enter via Iran”, Al Jazeera, February 26, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/afghanistan-fears-people-coronavirus-enter-iran-200226053330520.html, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xi]Ezzatullah Mehrdad, “How Afghanistan Failed to Contain COVID-19”, The Diplomat, March 27, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/how-afghanistan-failed-to-contain-covid-19/, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xii] Please see Table 1 and Table 2 make a comparison within the specified time frames.
[xiii] A 52 year old tourist guide was the first confirmed COVID-19 patient who came in touch with a group of Italian tourists. “Sri Lanka announces first coronavirus case”, India Today, March 11, 2020, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/sri-lanka-coronavirus-italian-1654323-2020-03-11, Accessed on March 26, 2020
[xiv] A 52 year old tourist guide was the first confirmed COVID-19 patient who came in touch with a group of Italian tourists. “Sri Lanka announces first coronavirus case”, India Today, March 11, 2020, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/sri-lanka-coronavirus-italian-1654323-2020-03-11, Accessed on March 26, 2020
[xv] “Bangladesh shuts all public transports as coronavirus death toll rises to 4”, The Hindu, March 25, 2020, https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/policy/bangladesh-shuts-all-public-transports-as-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-to-4/74807256, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xvi] “Bangladesh shuts all public transports as coronavirus death toll rises to 4”, The Hindu, March 25, 2020, https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/policy/bangladesh-shuts-all-public-transports-as-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-to-4/74807256, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xvii] “Bangladesh - Chalking out a plan to combat the COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus with SAARC leaders”, YouTube, March 15, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1geYhbkEPo&t=199s, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xviii] “Massive Bangladesh coronavirus prayer gathering sparks outcry”, The Bangkok Post, March 19, 2020, https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1882015/massive-bangladesh-coronavirus-prayer-gathering-sparks-outcry ,Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xix] Saheli Roy Choudhury, “The coronavirus outbreak is crushing Bangladesh’s garment export with growing order cancellations”, CNBC, March 27, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-bangladesh-garment-sector-faces-growing-order-cancellations.html, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xx] Saheli Roy Choudhury, “The coronavirus outbreak is crushing Bangladesh’s garment export with growing order cancellations”, CNBC, March 27, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-bangladesh-garment-sector-faces-growing-order-cancellations.html, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xxi] “Nepal - Chalking out a plan to combat the COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus with SAARC leaders”, YouTube, March 15, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XokQfuthPUs, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xxii] “Nepal seals borders with India, China to prevent Coronavirus outbreak”, The Economic Times, March 23, 2020, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/coronavirus-nepal-seals-borders-with-india-china/articleshow/74771722.cms, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xxiii] “Bhutan - Chalking out a plan to combat the COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus with SAARC leaders”, YouTube, March 15, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSwZCtl4bgE&t=28s, Accessed on?
[xxiv] “Maldives - Chalking out a plan to combat the COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus with SAARC leaders”, YouTube, March 15, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNz8YB5aLuU&t=104s, Accessed on March 28, 2020
[xxv] Coronavirus Cases, Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, Accessed on April 06, 2020