The Iowa caucus is the beginning of the US Presidential election. It is the first state to enter the primaries that would end with the party’s national convention announcing its Presidential candidate (The Republican convention takes place between the 18th and 21st of July in Cleveland, Ohio. The Democrats will conduct theirs in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on 25th-28th July).
There are two main ways of holding a vote: a primary and a caucus. Most states hold a primary, which works like a regular election with voters casting their vote at a polling booth or by post. Caucuses are small party meetings held throughout a state where candidates’ supporters speak on their behalf before a vote is held. Almost all caucuses are restricted to voters, who are either registered Democrats or Republicans. Around half of the primary elections are similarly “closed”; the remainders are “open” so that at least independent voters—those who don’t register as Democrats or Republicans—can take part. The rules for both types of contest vary from state to state and from party to party. The aim of the process is to allocate the parties’ delegates in each state to the candidates ahead of the national conventions, where the winning nominee is declared. The race is for delegates, not votes.1 The purpose of America’s primary elections is for political parties in each state (and American territory) to determine their preferred candidate for the November presidential election. The primary and the caucus elections are spread out over more than four months. Nonetheless, the campaign to win this first phase of the American elections starts as early as a year in advance, with the first candidate announcing her/his bid for the party’s nomination.
To win the Republican Party nomination, a candidate must secure 1,237 of the party’s 2,472 delegates. Around 60 per cent of Republican delegates will be decided by March 15th, but nearly all of those will be allocated to candidates on a proportional basis (once they clear a voting threshold). After March 15th, states can allot all their Republican delegates to the candidate, who wins a primary. It will take until early April for two-thirds of the delegates to be allocated. In the past, a clear establishment favourite would have emerged after Super Tuesday 1, the first Tuesday of the month of March, when a dozen states vote, 2 but we find that there are three candidates who continue to be in a race to secure the nomination.
The delegates in every Democratic contest are allocated proportionally to candidates, who receive at least 15 per cent of the votes. Most delegates are “pledged” to a particular candidate according to the vote. The Democrats also have "super-delegates"; party congressmen, senators and influential party members in each state, who are not pledged to a candidate and could, sway the convention in a tight race.3
The parties allocate to each state a number of delegates based on population and a variety of other factors that vary from state to state. In most states, candidates win delegates based on the votes they receive in primaries and caucuses. The Democratic Party calls these pledged delegates; Republicans call them bound delegates. The tally also includes Democratic unpledged delegates, also known as super-delegates, and Republican unbound delegates from each state. These are party leaders and elected officials who are free to back any candidate they choose. On the Republican side, three states and two territories will not award delegates based on a primary or caucus vote: Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa, and Guam. Instead, all of their delegates are unbound.4
Nonetheless, it is not just winning the maximum support in a state that would help the candidate win the nomination at the national convention; it will also affect campaign funding. As a clear winner emerges, it is assumed that other candidates would withdraw from the race. This would, in turn, allow the party to focus its support on the selected candidate and allow donors to fund the party’s campaign for the President, rather than fund an individual candidate’s campaign. A long protracted campaign would mean that, candidates would not have surplus funds from their individual campaigns to use during the party’s campaign run. This, in turn, would require the donors to financially support the campaign again.
A long drawn out campaign might also affect future voting. A divided support base for either party would mean that the Presidential election would become more difficult. It is not necessary that supporters of one candidate may automatically vote for the party’s nominee. For example, it is being widely speculated that supporters of the Republican Party might switch votes or not vote at all if Mr. Donald Trump is the party’s nominee.
The Candidates
There are currently two Democrats, Ms. Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont) and three Republicans, Mr. Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio), still in the running for their respective party’s 2016 presidential nomination.
While the race for the Democrats is showing signs of one candidate emerging ahead of the other, they have an advantage over the Republicans in that they have only two candidates, who are contesting. Ms. Clinton currently has a lead over Senator Sanders in both the number of pledged delegates and the support of super-delegates. Ms. Clinton has the support of 1,930 delegates (includes 502 super-delegates) as opposed to Senator Sander’s 1,189 delegates (includes 38 super-delegates). Either candidate would need to win the support of 2383 delegates to win the nomination in July. However, Senator Sanders has announced that he will not be withdrawing from the race anytime soon.
Senator Sander’s campaign that had recently been able to win seven primaries in a row, before being defeated by Ms. Clinton in the New York state primary, has been able to close the gap on the number of pledged delegates. His campaign is working towards the primaries of Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland. Wins in them would allow Senator Sanders to further close the gap between him and Ms. Clinton in the number of pledged delegates. This will help Senator Sanders to win the super-delegates who are yet to vote and may prove crucial in the convention in July.
For the Republicans, the number of candidates has also reduced considerably to just three candidates from a field of twelve. The leading candidate for the party is Mr. Trump, who has been able to win the primaries in the maximum number of states. He is followed on the leader board by Senator Cruz and Governor Kasich. The party fears that Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz would not be able to win the national elections due to their controversial stand on issues such as immigration, rights of religious and other minorities, trade treaties with other countries, etc. There are growing differences within the Republican Party on their support to Mr. Trump. Over the period of the primaries, it has become clear that neither Mr. Trump not Senator Cruz were the establishment candidate. However, between the two, Senator Cruz is viewed as a candidate who would be better able to represent the Republican ideology against the Democratic nominee in November. Mr. Trump has been critical of the way delegates were pledged to Senator Cruz in the state of Colorado. He has also voiced his concerns that if as the popular candidate, he is not elected, then there might be riots on the streets.
If no one candidate emerges, then the convention may have a so-called "brokered or contested convention". A brokered convention occurs when none of the presidential candidates enters their party’s national convention having won enough delegates during the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination. As a result, none of the candidates are able to win the nomination on the first ballot. The party delegates then have to engage in multiple rounds of balloting to reach a nomination.
The Issues
The concerns that are being raised on the campaign trail, in televised debates and in the issues that the candidates are willing to speak on are all, largely, matters of domestic politics. Foreign policy issues mentioned by the candidates are on policies towards fighting terrorism, relations with Mexico, Iran, and trade policy with China. Nonetheless, all these issues have been discussed in view of their effect on domestic political situation, such as easy visa policy which has been criticised for allowing terrorists to manipulate it (like in San Bernardino shooting) and immigrants from abusing it to stay back in the United States; porous borders leading to illegal immigration (on the southern border with Mexico); and ensure that jobs stay in or are created in America by re-negotiating trade policies (like with China).
The four important domestic issues of the current elections can be said to be:-
Sanders has a put forward a new healthcare plan. Nonetheless, what worries some analysts is the cost of change in repealing the act or replacing it with another. They say that it would be an additional burden on the ever increasing federal debt of the United States.
Apart from the above, the candidates have campaigned on some issues of foreign policy. Foreign policy doesn’t play a major role in American presidential elections as the votes are dependent on policies on domestic issues, most importantly, the economy and jobs. Foreign policy or international issues get mentioned in campaigns, whether in general terms or by referring to a specific country or region. Most of these issues fall under the broad categories of foreign economic policy (such as free trade, currency policy, or foreign aid) or national security issues (such as military readiness, nuclear proliferation, crisis diplomacy, and what is called “homeland security” issues like terrorism, though terrorism concerns long predate 9/11).5 Even in these elections, these issues have been mentioned as they have a direct connection with the domestic concerns of the voters. Among foreign policy issues, terrorism has gained importance among the public. The people view national security concerns, along with economic issues, as the most significant challenge facing the nation in this election year.
It is perhaps to address this concern that the main thread common among all candidates is the stress on projecting a powerful image of the United States. They have all stated that the United States will continue to play an important role in the international arena. While the Republican candidates have expressed their dissatisfaction with the Iran-US nuclear agreement, the Democrat candidates have stated that they continue to support the deal. On the refugee crisis, the most controversial statement has been made by Mr. Trump, who has stated that the refugees should not be allowed to come to the United States He further stated that Muslims and members of the Latino community should also be restricted from entry as they were a threat to the United States. Senator Cruz has stated that only Christian refugees should be allowed as there is no ‘meaningful threat from Christians’. He further stated that if there are Syrian Muslims, who are really being persecuted, they should be sent to “majority-Muslim” countries. These remarks have caused some concern among the allies of the United States in the Middle East.
Both, Mr. Trump and Sentaor Cruz’s views have been strongly condemned by the two Democrat Party candidates. Mrs. Clinton and Senator Sander’s made it clear that visa laws need to be relooked to plug loopholes that may be used by terrorists to enter and stay in the United States, but religion based bias on granting refugee status would be against the Constitution. The Democrat candidates have both welcomed the need to address the issue as well as find solutions to the problem in the Middle East. The issue has found strong resonance in the United States after the horrific terrorist attacks on Paris and mounting concerns that the United State could become the next target of ISIL. This has heightened voters’ concerns about national security as they assess the field of presidential candidates. The other foreign relations issue tied to the domestic policy is relations with China. The Republican Party candidates have expressed the opinion that various trade agreements with China and other nations need to be revisited. They point out that these trade agreements have led to jobs being shifted to locations where labour is cheap. They state that they will renegotiate and ensure that American companies do not shift out jobs. Views have also been expressed on the Iran nuclear deal; here again, the republican candidates stated that they would reject the deal, if they become President.
Conclusion
It has to be remembered that while the world looks at the American Presidential elections with much anticipation, it is essentially a domestic election in which the citizens are electing their head of government. Therefore, till the primary stages, the domestic concerns of the people will dominate. One can expect to hear some comments on foreign policy after the two parties have announced their candidates and during the presidential debates in which the candidates make their position on various issues clear. Nonetheless, whether international concerns, especially terrorism and the possibility of United States’ engagement militarily will be a dominant issue among the voters cannot be predicted. Circumstances could change that may force the voters to stress on economic issues; a terrorist incident at home may force them to focus on national security; or adverse developments with Russia or China may influence them differently.
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Annexure 1
Broad outline of points as stated on the campaign websites of the candidates (on some of the main issues).
Issue |
Candidate |
Policy Stand |
Second Amendment (allows the US citizens, the people to keep and bear Arms, which the State shall not infringe) |
Senator Ted Cruz (R.) |
Supports the Second Amendment and has led the fight against Congress’ legislation to restrict the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans. Authored legislation to strengthen citizens’ Second Amendment rights and allow interstate firearms sales. He has stated that, “.... as radical Islamic terrorists seek to attack Americans on our own soil, Americans’ right to protect our families and communities are all the more critical to our safety and freedom.” |
|
Mr Donald Trump (R) |
Supports the rights of the citizens to bear arms. He wants the government to prosecute violent criminals, but not penalise legitimate owners. He endorses the view that another important way to fight crime – empower law-abiding gun owners to defend themselves. Law enforcement is great, they do a tremendous job, but they can’t be everywhere all of the time. The personal protection is ultimately up to the citizen. |
|
Governor John Kasich (R) |
Supports the Second Amendment. As governor, has signed every pro-second amendment bill to defend this basic, constitutional right. |
|
Ms Hillary Clinton (D) |
Supports sensible action to address gun violence, including comprehensive background checks, cracking down on illegal gun traffickers, holding dealers and manufacturers accountable, and keeping guns out of the hands of domestic abusers and stalkers. |
|
Senator Bernie Sanders (D. Vermont) |
Does not have the issue listed on his official website. He represents a state that has very little gun control norms and high gun ownership. He has voted against curtailing the Second Amendment, but in the democratic party debates, he has called for modest controls including background checks. He also wants to ensure that guns used for hunting should be sold and not those kinds that are used to kill people |
Healthcare |
Sen. Cruz |
If elected, he will repeal ObamaCare and replace it with a healthcare system that is affordable and will expand competition in the market. He has called his plan the Health Care Choice Plan, which will allow people to buy health care plans across state lines. |
|
Mr Trump |
He has pledged to repeal ObamaCare and replace it with a healthcare that is more market competitive. Has not yet made public any specific outline as to how he will improve the healthcare system. |
|
Gov. Kasich |
Will repeal and replace ObamaCare. He will replace it with the healthcare model as followed in Ohio. Ohio is working through its Medicaid system to encourage patient-centered primary care practices that go the extra distance to keep people healthy and thereby help control costs. Savings generated this way accrues, in part, to health insurance plans as avoided costs. |
|
Ms Clinton |
Supports ObamaCare. Has also pledged to support and protect women’s access to reproductive health care. And reduce the cost of prescription drugs. |
|
Sen. Sanders |
Has proposed the Single Payer Health Care Plan. It would create a federally administered single-payer health care Program that will provide comprehensive coverage for all Americans. Under the plan, Americans will benefit from the freedom and security that comes with separating health insurance from employment. |
Immigration |
Sen. Cruz |
Has proposed three steps: First, secure the border, once and for all. No other reform is meaningful if we do not fix porous southern border. This will be done by building a wall and increasing the number of border guards; increased surveillance and biometric tracking system at all ports of entry. Second, strengthen and enforce our existing immigration laws. We must reverse President Obama’s enforcement “priorities,” which allow a large number of criminal aliens to unlawfully remain in the United States. Third, pursue reforms to the legal-immigration system that will prioritize the interests and well-being of Americans. As a nation built by those fleeing persecution and seeking freedom, we must once against welcome and celebrate legal immigrants while at the same time protecting American jobs and interests. |
|
Mr. Trump |
Three core principles of his real immigration reform: 1. A nation without borders is not a nation. There must be a wall across the southern border. Make Mexico pay for the wall, by impounding all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats, increase fees on all border crossing cards, increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico, and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico, 2. Defend the laws and constitution of the country. This will be done by increasing the number of ICE, send back illegal immigrants, defund sanctuary cities, etc. 3. Any immigration plan must improve jobs, wages and security for all Americans.
|
|
Gov. Kasich |
Criminal illegal immigrants should be deported, but others would be allowed to stay. |
|
Ms. Clinton |
She has stated that she would fight for immigration reforms but through targeted and humane enforcement. She will close private immigration detention centres and promote naturalisation. |
|
Sen. Sanders |
He has stated that he will implement a humane and secure immigration policy that will: Dismantle inhumane deportation programs and detention centres; Pave the way for a swift and fair legislative roadmap to citizenship for the eleven million undocumented immigrants; Ensure our border remains secure while respecting local communities; Regulate the future flow of immigrants by modernizing the visa system and rewriting bad trade agreements; Enhance access to justice and reverse the criminalization of immigrants; Establish parameters for independent oversight of key U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agencies. |
Economy |
Sen. Cruz |
Has proposed the Cruz Simple Flat Tax, all income groups will see a double-digit increase in after-tax income. The tax plan to dramatically reduce taxes for American families and individuals, simplify the tax code and spur significant economic growth. Another vital reform to unleash economic prosperity is adopting an energy plan that embraces the Great American Energy Renaissance. He has pledged to accept the Keystone pipeline from Canada to US. He has also supported the need to cut the size of the federal government and has proposed that he will under the Cruz Five for Freedom plan eliminates the IRS, the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. |
|
Mr. Trump |
Has proposed tax reforms through: - Tax relief for middle class Americans, Simplify the tax code to reduce the confusion in preparing their taxes and let everyone keep more of their money. Grow the American economy by discouraging corporate inversions, adding a huge number of new jobs, and making America globally competitive again. Doesn’t add to the national debt and deficit, which are already too large. He has also stated that he will renegotiate trade policy with China and Mexico. |
|
Gov. Kasich |
His campaign has stressed his extensive experience as US House Budget Committee chairman, in the private sector and as governor of one of the largest states in the nation, have helped him develop a keen understanding of what it takes to create opportunity, empower job creation and foster economic growth. He has proposed to cut personal and business taxes, simplify the tax code and initiate a top-to-bottom review of the tax system to eliminate barriers to innovation and remove job barriers. |
|
Ms. Clinton |
Has proposed three broad themes under which she will revive the US economy: Give working families a raise, and tax relief that helps them manage rising costs. Create good-paying jobs and get pay rising by investing in infrastructure, clean energy, and scientific and medical research to strengthen our economy and growth. Close corporate tax loopholes and make the most fortunate pay their fair share. She will revamp the capital gains tax to reward farsighted investments that create jobs. And make Wall Street accountable for its proposals. |
|
Sen. Sanders |
He is demanding that the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share in taxes. As president, he will stop corporations from shifting their profits and jobs overseas to avoid paying U.S. income taxes. He also wants to increase the federal minimum wage to US $15 per hour. He wants to invest in infrastructure building by putting at least 13 million Americans to work by investing $1 trillion over five years towards this cause. He has proposed a revision of trade policies like NAFTA, CAFTA, and PNTR with China that have driven down wages and caused the loss of millions of jobs. He also supports the fairness pay check act that allows women to earn the same for the same job. |
National Security and foreign policy |
Sen. Cruz |
Has proposed three principles:- To preserve our country we need to exert leadership on the global stage, not withdraw from it. To fiercely defend our allies and interests. And to judge each challenge through the simple test of what is best for America. These steps will be taken by rebuilding the US military and securing the borders. He has also said he will repeal the Iran Deal. |
|
Mr. Trump |
Has stated that he will make America strong and will approve military use against the ISIS. |
|
Gov. Kasich |
Has outlined his policy that he will defeat ISIL with the mutual defence action with NATO and other allies. He also feels that US’s unwillingness to lead the fight against terrorism has allowed Russia and China to build their expansionist ideas. He will take work with allies to regain the US leadership position. He has stated that his presidency will rebuild these critical relationships in order to better advance our national interests the leadership that produces much-needed global stability. To make America secure he will also increase defence spending. |
|
Ms. Clinton |
Has outlined three broad policies: Keep America safe and secure by defending our core values and leading with principle. Defeat ISIS and global terrorism and the ideologies that drive it. Strengthen our alliances and nurture new relationships to tackle shared challenges such as climate change, cyber threats, and highly contagious diseases. |
|
Sen. Sanders |
He has stressed on the fact that terrorists need to be defeated but it has to be done in a systematic manner. Move away from a policy of unilateral military action, and toward a policy of emphasizing diplomacy, and ensuring that the decision to go to war is the last resort. Ensure that any military action that the US is involved in has clear goals, is limited in scope, and whenever possible, provides support to US allies in the region. Close Guantanamo Bay, rein in the National Security Agency, and abolish the use of torture. He also wants to expand US global influence by promoting fair trade, addressing global climate change, providing humanitarian relief and economic assistance, defending the rule of law, and promoting human rights. |
Annexure 2
Key Policy advisor and staff for US Presidential Candidates 2016
Sen. Ted Cruz (Republican)
National Security - Ms. Victoria Coates
Served as Sen. Cruz's senior national security advisor in the Senate since March 2013. Adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, , has advised Texas Gov. Rick Perry during his 2012 presidential campaign and previously worked for Donald Rumsfeld.
Chief strategist (Political) - Mr. Jason Johnson,
A chief strategist and general consultant for Sen. Cruz since his 2012 Senate campaign, is the owner of the Austin-based J2 Strategies, is the main strategist of the Texas wing of the senator's political operation. He has previously worked as campaign manager then chief of staff for Texas Attorney General (and Gov.-elect) Greg Abbott, and before that an aide to State Sen. Todd Staples, a rising star in Texas Republican politics.
Mr. Donald Trump (Republican)
National Co-Chairman and Policy Advisor - Mr. Sam Clovis
He served as Iowa chair of Mr. Rick Perry's campaign. Professor of economics at Morningside College and the director of the Col. Bud Day Centre for Civic Engagement. 25-year Air Force veteran, achieving the rank of full colonel.
Governor John Kasich (Republican)
Senior Strategist - John Weaver
Political Director - Jeff Polesovsky
Ms. Hilary Clinton (Democrat)
Chairman of the Campaign - Mr. John Podesta
He was former President Clinton’s chief of staff in the White House from Oct. 1998-Jan. 2001; Assistant to the President and Deputy Chief of Staff, 1997-98, Assistant to the President, Staff Secretary and a senior policy adviser on government information, privacy, telecommunications security and regulatory policy, Jan. 1993-95. He is the founder of the Centre for American Progress, a liberal think tank. He stepped down earlier this year as advisor to President Obama and previously led his 2008 transition team. He is a visiting professor of Law on the faculty of the Georgetown University Law Centre. Co-chair of the Obama-Biden Transition Project following the 2008 campaign.
Campaign Manager (Running Campaign Day to Day) - Mr. Robby Mook
He worked for Ms. Clinton’s 2008 presidential bid, helping her win in Nevada, Ohio and Indiana during the Democratic primary, and has also served as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He also managed her 2014 midterms.
Chief Strategist - Mr. Joel Benenson
Has done polling for President Obama and is the founding partner (2000) and president of the Benenson Strategy Group (BSG); has served as a pollster and strategist for U.S. senators, governors and mayors.
Senior Policy Advisor - Mr. Jake Sullivan
A national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden. Director of policy planning at the U.S. State Department from Feb. 2011; previously deputy chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from Jan. 2009. Deputy policy director on Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign. Chief counsel and senior policy advisor to Sen. Amy Klobuchar
Senior Policy Advisor - Ms. Maya Harris
Senior fellow at the Centre for American Progress. Served five years as vice president of Democracy, Rights and Justice and an officer of the Board of Trustees at the Ford Foundation. Senior associate at PolicyLink. Dean and CEO of Lincoln Law School of San Jose.
Policy Advisor - Ann O'Leary
Co-founder of the Opportunity Institute. Vice president and director of the children and families program at the Centre for the Next Generation from Sept. 2011. Deputy city attorney in the San Francisco City Attorney's Office, 2006-08. Special Assistant to the President at the White House, 1999-2000.
Mr. Bernie Sanders (Democrat)
Senior Advisor - Mr. Tad Devine
Extensive experience on presidential campaigns: Senior advisor and strategist on Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign in 2003-04. Senior strategist on the Gore-Lieberman campaign in 2000. Campaign manager on Sen. Bob Kerrey's 1992 presidential campaign. Director of delegate selection and field operations for Mike Dukakis' campaign in 1987-88, and in the Fall, campaign manager for VP nominee Sen. Lloyd Bentsen. Worked on Walter Mondale's 1984 campaign in the Florida primary, as deputy delegate director, and in the Fall as executive assistant to the campaign manager. Started in politics in 1980 helping track delegates for Jimmy Carter. Devine has also worked as a strategist and consultant on campaigns overseas.
Campaign Manager - Mr. Jeff Weaver
Started as a legislative assistant to Sen. Sanders in his House office while attending law school, served as Sen. Sanders' House chief of staff in the early 2000s, as his 2006 campaign manager, and as his Senate chief of staff from Jan. 2007-July 2009.
Senior Advisor - Mr. Phil Fiermonte
He served as outreach/state director in Sen. Sanders' Senate office before moving over to the campaign full time.
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*The Authoress is Research Fellow with the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are that of the Researcher and not of the Council
Endnotes:
1 “How America’s Presidential Candidates are Chosen,” The Economist, http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/01/economist-explains-17?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e, (Accessed on 18 February 2016).
2 Ibid.
3 “America’s Primary Agenda: 2016 Election Calendar,” The Economist, http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/primary-season?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e, (Accessed on 18 February 2016).
4 ----, “Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?” http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/, (Accessed on 22 April 2016).
5 Elizabeth Saunders, “Will Foreign Policy be a Major Issue in the 2016 Election? Here’s What We Know,” The Washington Post, 26 January 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/01/26/will-foreign-policy-be-a-major-issue-in-the-2016-election-heres-what-we-know/, (accessed on 21 February 2016).