Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Several major European nations, recently recognized the State of Palestine. This coordinated diplomatic move, driven by the devastating conflict in Gaza, aims to revitalize the two-state solution by treating Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for peace. 

It is raining recognition for a Palestinian state in the Western world. The state of Palestine was first declared by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1988, which managed to find support in the non-Western world. India, for example, was one of the first countries to recognise Palestine in 1988 and has taken a consistent position on supporting the “two-state solution” and has voted in favour of a UN resolution backing the idea as a viable way for bringing peace to the Middle East. The Western countries, however, have shown reluctance in recognising a Palestinian state until now.

In a more recent development, Australia, Canada, Portugal and the UK coordinated their actions to give recognition[i] to Palestine ahead of the 80^th session of the United Nations General Assembly. France, which co-convened a meeting with Saudi Arabia before the Assembly meeting, along with Belgium, Andorra, Luxembourg, Malta and Monaco, followed suit and recognised Palestine.[ii] Spain, Norway and Ireland had recognised  the Palestinian state last year, which they declared was important for finding a political solution to the war in the Middle East.[iii] This move is expected to have a domino effect in Europe, with pressure building on countries like Germany and Italy to extend formal diplomatic recognition to Palestine.

The recognition of Palestine by Europe, to begin with, has the potential for a snowball effect that could raise the international standing of Palestine and may bring some breakthrough for the people of Gaza who have only seen catastrophe in the aftermath of the Israeli response to the ghastly Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, which saw 1200 people killed and 250 hostages taken. Furthermore, a coordinated action by the European countries, anyway, carries more weight than isolated gestures, especially at a time when there is a real fear in Europe that Israel is working towards a complete annexation of Gaza.[iv]

Recognition, especially coming from countries like the UK and France, is more than a symbolic gesture, as these two European powers were deeply involved in the 20^th-century restructuring of the Middle East and continued to maintain close political and economic ties with Israel. France, in fact, was Israel’s dominant weapon supplier until the eve of the Six Day War and saw Israel as a potential counterbalance against Nasser’s Egypt, especially after it lost its mandate on Lebanon and Syria in 1946.[v] The two countries later joined hands with Israel to attack Egypt in the fall of 1956 to keep control of the Suez Canal, only to lose their influence in the Middle East and get replaced by the US as the primary Western player in the region.

With major European countries on board, the diplomatic pressure was aimed at building pressure on Israel to stop its military action in Gaza. The diplomatic actions of the individual European countries look coordinated with the EU, which has proposed trade restrictions and sanctions on far-right ministers in the Israeli government.[vi] With the proposed suspension of the trade component of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the EU expects to build pressure on Tel Aviv, as it could cost an estimated 227 million euros for Israeli exporters.[vii] The European Parliament has adopted a resolution that has condemned the obstruction of humanitarian aid to Gaza by Israel, demanded an investigation on war crimes and violations of international law and urged EU members to take diplomatic actions towards a two-state solution, besides calling the nature of the Israeli response unjustified and disproportionate.[viii]

Although the widespread destruction and human catastrophe in Gaza is one of the primary drivers of Europe’s rush, there are other reasons that also demand attention. Europe has faced a tough choice to balance its position on the Gaza war vis-à-vis Ukraine, which too is experiencing large-scale loss of material and human life. Europe’s stance on Ukraine is primarily driven by ideas, such as the respect of national sovereignty and an opposition to the forceful and unilateral change of borders, and thus scholars have pointed out the “consistency gap” in Europe’s foreign policy for its failure to uphold the same ideals for the people of Palestine.[ix] This has added to the pressure on European leaders, which President Macron acknowledged during his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2025 in Singapore.[x] While addressing the distinguished civilian and military leaders across the world, Macron had admitted the need for a ceasefire and recognition of a Palestinian state, stressing that by abandoning Gaza and giving a free pass to Israel, Europe risks losing its credibility in the rest of the world.

The European recognition of Palestine is not just about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, there has been a “geopolitical awakening” in the political class of the European capitals. Repeated surveys have shown the same in the European public, which wants international law to be upheld and a Europe that is self-sufficient as far as security and defence are concerned. Owing to these significant shifts, Europe is actively working to reclaim its lost political agency on the global stage,[xi] especially in the region, which was once a backyard of the major European powers. The fact that Ahmed al-Sharaa, once a declared terrorist of Al-Qaeda and now the de facto ruler of Syria, met European Council President Antonio Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, on the sidelines of his visit to the UNGA meeting, reflects on Europe’s intention for a gradual inroad into Middle Eastern politics.

The last time Europe played meaningful role in the region was in 2015 when Germany, France and Britain negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) along with other major powers to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. With the agreement sabotaged by Trump and the Gaza conflict transcending its borders, the risk of escalation has been duly noted. Europe cannot afford another region-wide prolonged conflict which could drive a fresh wave of refugees to European capitals, already grappling with the refugee crisis of 2015 and the subsequent rise of the far-right on the continent. For Europe to successfully end its reliance on Russian energy, securing supply chains requires a peaceful and stable Middle East. Disruptions led by the Houthis in the Red Sea vividly illustrate the world's need for secure supply networks.

Although Europe has steadily lost its influence in the Middle East to other powers, the coordinated efforts are more than a symbolic gesture and underline Europe’s push for a greater role in the Middle East given the greater stakes it has in the region. The real challenge, however, will be to maintain consistent European stance while balancing the United States, which remains committed to Israeli interests and even prevented Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, from participating physically in the UNGA meeting. Europe will also need to navigate through its own domestic predicaments. Countries like Italy and Germany are still hesitant to recognize Palestine. EU has its own limitations when it comes to issues which are directly related to the foreign policy domains of the member countries, which still enjoy monopoly over these issues. As far as Netanyahu is concerned, he has repeatedly criticized the European countries who have recognised Palestine and has shown no inclination to engage with European leadership on Gaza. Europe’s best bet, as of now, is the long-term and effective implementation of the Trump’s 20-point Gaza Peace Agreement which was signed in the presence of many European and other leaders in Egypt.

*****

*Aman Kumar, Research Associate, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Catarina Demony and Bhargav Acharya. “Four major Western nations recognise Palestinian state, to fury of Israel”, Reuters, September 22, 2025 https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/britain-australia-canada-recognise-palestinian-state-2025-09-21/ (Accessed September 23, 2025).

[ii] Aljazeera. “France among six more countries to formally recognise Palestinian statehood”, Aljazeera, September 22, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/22/france-recognises-palestinian-state-ahead-of-the-unga-meeting (Accessed September 23, 2025).

[iii] James Lanale. “Spain, Norway and Ireland recognise Palestinian state”, BBC, May 28, 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cl77drw22qjo (Accessed September 23, 2025).

[iv] Patrick Wintour and Archie Bland. “Why are more countries recognising Palestinian statehood and what does it mean practically?” The Guardian, September 22, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/19/what-uk-recognition-palestine-state-will-mean (Accessed September 23, 2025).

[v] CIA. “The French-Israeli relationship”, CIA, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000271219.pdf (Accessed September 24, 2025)

[vi] Richard Connor. “EU proposes Israel sanctions over Gaza”, DW, September 18, 2025, https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-updates-eu-proposes-israel-sanctions-over-gaza/live-74021734 (Accessed September 23, 2025).

[vii] Isabel Marques da Silva. “Can the EU overcome divergence over sanctions against Israel?” Euronews, September 23, 2025 https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/23/can-the-eu-overcome-divergence-over-sanctions-against-israel (Accessed September 24, 2025).

[viii]European Parliament. “Parliament pushes for Gaza aid, the hostages’ release and justice”, European Parliament, September 11, 2025, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20250905IPR30185/parliament-pushes-for-gaza-aid-the-hostages-release-and-justice (Accessed September 25, 2025).

[ix] Franciszek Snarski. “Why are European nations now moving to recognise Palestine?” The Hindu, September 12, 2025 https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/why-are-european-nations-now-moving-to-recognise-palestine-explained/article70037395.ece (Accessed September 24, 2025).

[x] Emmanuel Macron. “Keynote Address”, 22^nd Asia Security Summit, May 30, 2025. https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/shangri-la-dialogue/2025/transcripts-final/keynote/keynote-address_president-macron_as-delivered.pdf (Accessed September 24, 2025).

[xi] Vera Spyrakou. “Europe, Palestine and the meaning of recognition”, LSE, September 23, 2025, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2025/09/23/europe-recognition-palestine-meaning-france-uk/ (Accessed September 24, 2025).