Indian Council of World Affairs

The politics of the Philippines seem to be at a reset given the split verdict of the by-polls to all electable offices of the nation barring the president and the vice president. In the midst of this, there is also an impeachment motion against Vice President Sara Duterte that can reset the regional geopolitical landscape. 

"Politics is a fascinating game in any part of the world, but in the Philippines, it appears to have taken the lead this time. The mid-term polls of May 12, which covered the entirety of the elected spectrum of the Philippines with over 18,000 positions up for the picking, barring the offices of the President and Vice President, have brought to the forefront the complexities of the Filipino polity.[i]

As is the case worldwide, most elections have been decided in the Philippines on bread-and-butter issues. However, this time, the election was overshadowed by Rodrigo Duterte and the International Criminal Court (ICC) "l'affaire. 

The Prelude: Return of Democracy

When the world’s second-largest archipelago returned back to the democratic fold after the ouster of Ferdinand Marcos in February 1986 owing to popular unrest that was known as the Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA), named after the main avenue in the capital Manila which was at the heart of the protest, the revised Constitution of the Philippines began to limit the tenure of the presidency. According to Article VII, Section 4 of the Constitution:

The President and the Vice-President shall be elected by direct vote of the people for a term of six years which shall begin at noon on the thirtieth day of June next following the day of the election and shall end at noon of the same date six years thereafter. The President shall not be eligible for any re-election. No person who has succeeded as President and has served as such for more than four years shall be qualified for election to the same office at any time.[ii]

This, in other words, means that neither the president nor the vice president is eligible for a second term. This has been honoured by successive chief executives of the archipelago since 1986, including Gloria Arroyo, who served as the President for almost a decade. In the case of Gloria Arroyo, she succeeded President Joseph Estrada, who was forced to resign a little more than two and a half years into his presidency in January 2001 after the Second EDSA Revolution that was triggered by allegations of corruption by his administration. In June 2004, she was elected for a full term, whereas prior to the polls, she was elevated to the highest offices. 

Since the restoration of electoral democracy in the archipelago in 1986, the mid-term elections have come to be seen as a barometer for the subsequent presidential elections. With the next presidential polls slated for 2028, the significance of the recent mid-term polls is seen as setting the stage for deciding the successor of the incumbent President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos, who by law cannot serve more than one term as the head of state.

A Family Feud

One aspect that makes the 2025 elections significant is that politics in the Philippines, like much of Asia, is a family affair. Currently, the Marco and Duterte families are at the helm of affairs, whereas there are others, like the Aquinos, who continue to be relevant in public life.

It can be said that the elections were not only a democratic exercise but also a contest of one-upmanship between President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos and his Vice President Sara Duterte. This is so, as both offices are directly elected in a system that does not require the president and the vice president to contest as a single coherent unit. It is this split voting in the first-past-the-post system with the intent of creating internal checks and balances at the highest level, a legacy of the restoration of democracy post-Marcos Sr., which is at play. It is ironic that both Marcos Jr. and Ms. Duterte, though from two different political parties, contested the elections together under the now-broken ‘UniTeam’ coalition to secure their respective victories in the elections of 2022.[iii]

However, some of the factors that came to play out in the May elections were not only limited to “bread-and-butter issues, social safety net programs, job creation, poverty alleviation, and improved healthcare access that were top of mind for most voters”[iv] but also the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte on March 11, upon his return from Hong Kong, and the subsequent transfer to the Netherlands under a warrant issued by the ICC. Operation Pursuit, the joint operation to apprehend Rodrigo Duterte by the Philippine National Police and Interpol, was based on the charges of ‘crimes against humanity’ related to the Philippines’ extrajudicial killings during the war on drugs that came to be synonymous with the Duterte administration.[v]

Despite the international legal proceedings against him, Rodrigo Duterte, who ran for Mayor, along with his son Sebastian Duterte as Deputy Mayor candidate for Davao City, secured over 87 per cent of the popular vote. It is to be noted that Duterte Sr was the mayor of Davos City for 22 years before becoming president in 2016. It was his tenure as mayor and his no-nonsense policy towards crime, which included him personally gunning down criminals as Mayor,[vi] that played a role in propelling him as president. It is to be noted that the official death count is a bit over 6200 during his six-year tenure’s anti-drug campaign.[vii] And it is for his strongman image that the former first citizen was able to sweep the polls while being detained in the Netherlands.

Will the Vice President be Impeached?

However, the politics of this archipelago does not end there, as there is already an impeachment motion against the incumbent Vice President Sara Duterte on multiple charges, including “misusing millions of dollars in public funds and threatening to have President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr assassinated”.[viii] While Duterte has called the impeachment motion a political vendetta, the animosity between the two scions of Filipino political dynasties has been out in the open ever since Sara Duterte resigned from a Cabinet post in June 2024.[ix]  

It is in this context that the Senate election gains importance, as it is the upper house of legislators that has to now vote on the impeachment motion of the vice president. It is to be noted that the lower house, the House of Representatives, on February 5, 2025, by a vote of 215 out of 306, had approved the impeachment against Ms. Duterte. Now it is for the Senate to vote on this motion, as the future political trajectory of Ms. Sara Duterte and that of the Duterte clan hang in the balance. If found guilty of the charges, as has been passed in the House of Representatives, Ms. Sara would be barred permanently from office.

Currently, for President Marocs, the results of the Senate elections of May were not as favourable, as his alliance won only 6 of the 12 open Senate seats and not the eight seats as was expected.[x] This, in turn, means that Marcos does not enjoy a majority in the 24-member Senate and thus would be required to reach out to other members for both the smooth functioning of his administration and this wing of the legislator with its “sweeping legislative influence and political clout that can shape public opinion and sink presidential ambitions”.[xi]

What Lies Beyond the Polls

Between the Dutertes and Marcos, there is a clear divide when it comes to the issue of foreign policy, especially with China. This divergent position is not only a question of foreign policy but also impugns upon the very sovereignty of the archipelago and its position in the South China Sea maritime territorial dispute. While Duterte is seen to have taken a hard stance, Marcos is seen as soft-peddling this issue.  

It is under such circumstances and as an acknowledgement of his fading popularity, that President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos called for the resignation of his Cabinet on May 22, 2025. This action, though seen projected as a “bold reset”, has been speculated as reaching out to Duterte in what could be the first step towards a political compromise between the two dynasties.[xii]

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*Dr. Sripathi Narayanan, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal

Endnotes

[i] Philippines votes in high-stakes midterms amid Marcos-Duterte showdown, Channel News Asia, May 12, 2025, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-votes-midterm-elections-marcos-duterte-5123236, accessed on June 2, 2025.

[ii] The Constitution of the Republic of the Philippines, Gazette of the Philippines,   https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/constitutions/1987-constitution/, accessed on May 23, 2025.

[iii] Philippines Votes 2025: A Power Shift in the Senate, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, May 15, 2025, https://www.csis.org/analysis/philippines-votes-2025-power-shift-senate, accessed on May 23, 2025.

[iv] Philippines Votes 2025: A Power Shift in the Senate, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, May 15, 2025, https://www.csis.org/analysis/philippines-votes-2025-power-shift-senate, accessed on May 23, 2025.

[v] Ex-President Duterte arrested on ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity, ABS-CBN News, March 11, 2025,https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/3/11/dozens-of-cops-at-naia-ahead-of-rodrigo-duterte-s-expected-arrival-0951, accessed on May 27, 2025.

[vi] Philippines: Duterte confirms he personally killed three men, BBC, December 16, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38337746, accessed on May 28, 2025

[vii] What happened in Philippine drug war that led to Rodrigo Duterte's arrest?, Reuters, March 12, 2025,

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-happened-philippine-drug-war-that-led-dutertes-arrest-2025-03-11/, accessed on June 2, 2025.

[viii] Philippines feud escalates as lawmakers vote to impeach vice-president, BBC, February 5, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c334l5zn5ero, accessed on May 28, 2025.

[ix] 'Nabasag 'yung UniTeam': Duterte resignation saddens lawmaker, ABS-CBN News, June 20, 2024, https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/6/20/-nabasag-yung-uniteam-duterte-resignation-saddens-lawmaker-1900, accessed on June 2, 2025.

[x] Philippines Votes 2025: A Power Shift in the Senate, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, May 15, 2025, https://www.csis.org/analysis/philippines-votes-2025-power-shift-senate, accessed on May 23, 2025.  

[xi] Philippines votes in high-stakes midterms amid Marcos-Duterte showdown, Channel News Asia, May 12, 2025, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-votes-midterm-elections-marcos-duterte-5123236, accessed on June 2, 2025.

[xii] After poll setback, Philippines' Marcos tells Cabinet to resign, Channel News Asia, May 22, 2025, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-elections-marcos-cabinet-resignation-sara-duterte-5146516, accessed on June 2, 2025.