Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Central Asia's increasing global importance is apparent in the shifting geopolitical landscape in the region and beyond. 

Introduction 

Central Asia’s unique geographical position, deeply rooted in its historical ties to the “Silk Trade Routes,” has been pivotal in the region’s geopolitics and beyond. The ancient routes, connecting the East and West, facilitated the exchange of people, goods and ideas between Europe and the Far East, profoundly impacting the region’s cultural, economic and political landscape. The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the independence of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — five Central Asian countries — which have since made significant strides in political transformation, modernisation and economic growth. 

Central Asia, a region rich in natural resources and shared historical, religious and ethnic backgrounds, presents diverse economic opportunities. With substantial oil, gas and coal reserves in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as untapped hydropower potential in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, the region’s vast potential draws the interest of major global powers and underscores its geopolitical and geoeconomic significance. 

Central Asia is currently in the midst of a significant social, economic, and political transition, particularly in the post-pandemic period. This transition, along with recent geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, the Hamas-Israel war, and the Red Sea conflict, has presented a range of challenges for the region. These challenges, including security concerns, financial repercussions, and supply chain disruptions, highlight the broader implications of Central Asia’s evolving position in the changing geopolitical landscape for the region and beyond. 

Increasing Geopolitical Significance: An Overview 

Central Asia has become a region of increasing global geopolitical significance due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict. This conflict has drawn the attention of regional and global powers, each vying to expand their interests in the region, impacting Central Asia’s economic, political and security dynamics. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022 has significantly impacted the economic and political landscape of Central Asian countries. For instance, the energy sector has suffered supply chain disruptions. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have had ripple effects on the economies of Central Asian countries, which are heavily dependent on Russia. Due to its shared history with the region, Russia is considered the dominant external power. However, the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as it entered its third year, has created opportunities for other external powers, such as the US, the EU, China, India, Turkey and Iran, to expand their influence in the region, potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia. 

The withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan created a void in the form of Western influence, which the Western countries wanted to fill very quickly. The Russia-Ukraine conflict allowed Western countries to renew their interests in the region. The Summit between the Heads of State of all five Central Asian countries and the US President Biden in September 2023 can also be seen in this context. This was the first summit-level meeting between the US and Central Asian countries, and it was the first time that an American President had met with all the leaders of Central Asian countries together.[i] 

On the other hand, the EU is also trying to secure strategic partnerships by strengthening its relations and cooperation with Central Asian countries. The second EU-Central Asia meeting in Kazakhstan in June 2023, as well as the meeting of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with the leaders of the five Central Asian countries in September 2023 and the visits of French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian President Sergio Mattarella in November 2023 to Central Asian countries highlights the rekindled Western interest in the region.[ii] The West’s important role in Central Asia lies in its ability to balance the influence of both China and Russia, diversify its energy sources, and promote alternative connectivity routes. 

Through the “Go West” strategy, a key component of its foreign policy, China is actively working to maintain stability in the western province of Xinjiang and to bolster the economy of this relatively underdeveloped region.[iii] It also serves as a means for China to extend its political influence through economic reach into Central Asia. While fostering economic cooperation and connectivity with Central Asia, the strategy has also raised concerns about China’s burgeoning influence in the region and the economic reliance of Central Asian countries on China. China’s substantial investments in various local infrastructure projects in Central Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have further solidified its economic ties with the region. The comprehensive financial assistance of approximately $3.8 billion for the China-Central Asia Summit in May 2023 indicates China’s growing influence, filling the void left by Russia’s engagement in the Ukraine conflict.[iv] It also aims to counterbalance the potential rise of Western influence. 

As far as India is concerned, especially in the last 10 years, new dimensions have been added to the relations between India and Central Asia. The visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to all five Central Asian countries in 2015 proved to be a milestone in this direction. India sees an integrated and stable Central Asia as an “extended neighbourhood” necessary for its security and economic interests. In January 2022, India hosted the India-Central Asia Summit for the first time, a significant event that helped further strengthen the political understanding between the two sides. The Indian Foreign Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, defined the framework of India and Central Asia relations through the 4Cs — commerce, capacity building, connectivity and contacts. 

Turkey, under its “Pan-Turkism” policy, is continuously increasing its presence in Central Asia. “Pan-Turkism” is a political and cultural movement that advocates the unity of Turkic-speaking peoples. In recent years, Turkey has attempted to increase its geopolitical influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus region under this policy. The 10th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States was held in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, in November 2023, the central theme of which was “Turk Time.” Along with long-term plans, such as “Turkic World-2040,” and short-term plans, such as “Strategy Document of the Organization of Turkic States-2022-26” and the ‘Turk Time” policy will also be an important plan for this organisation.[v] In 2021, under the chairmanship of Turkey, the organisation’s name was changed from ‘Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States’ to “Organization of Turkic States” and a new headquarters was opened in Istanbul.[vi] Turkey aspires to lead the “Greater Turkic World” and expand its influence in Central Asia. 

Over the past few years, Iran has also strengthened its relations with Central Asian countries. On the one hand, Iran presents itself to the Central Asian countries as a logistics centre with similar ethnocultural and linguistic elements, such as Persian, and on the other, as a commercial centre, such as the energy sector and trade corridors. 

However, Russia’s continuous influence in the region is evident by voting patterns during the significant United Nations Security Council resolutions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Central Asian countries mostly either abstained or refrained from voting.[vii] The recent reciprocal visits of leaders from Russia and Central Asian countries on significant occasions, including attending the Victory Parades, further indicate Russia’s influence in the region.[viii] 

However, Central Asian countries have consistently strived to balance their relationships with regional and global powers through multilateral (multi-vector) foreign policy. This strategy, a “balanced” or “multi-dimensional” foreign policy, involves maintaining friendly ties with global powers, such as the US, the EU, India, China, Iran and Turkey, while maintaining cordial relations with Russia.[ix] The emerging and complex geopolitical landscape presents diverse challenges to Central Asian countries regarding security, economy and connectivity.  

Security Concerns 

The five Central Asian countries have been grappling with security concerns recently, including political agitation, violent labour unrest, and border conflict. For instance, in January 2022, Kazakhstan witnessed large-scale protests due to a sudden and substantial increase in liquefied petroleum gas costs. The protests, which later turned into violent rioting, were driven by the slogan “Shal Ket!” (Old men must go), which showed discontent with the government. In response, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sought military intervention from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional security alliance.[x] The violence was labelled as a “terrorist attack by foreign forces” aimed at destabilising the country.[xi] 

In May 2022, the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous province in Tajikistan witnessed violent anti-government protests. The clashes occurred when security forces confronted the protesters, who were demanding an investigation into the police killing of a local Pamiri man, which had triggered violent protests in November 2021. The protesters also called for releasing several activists and individuals who had been detained or imprisoned in recent months. Additionally, they demanded the resignation of the regional governor and Khorugh mayor. The clashes resulted in at least nine fatalities.[xii]

Also, in early July 2022, the Government of Uzbekistan faced large protests organised in the autonomous Karakalpakstan against proposed constitutional changes, which were perceived by some as a potential threat to the region’s autonomy.[xiii] A brief but intense armed border conflict between the armies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in September 2022, wherein around 50 civilians were killed and 121 were injured, also presents security challenges that could have ramifications in the region and beyond.[xiv] 

Since the Taliban rule in Afghanistan began, Central Asia has emerged as a highly complex geopolitical region with interconnected security challenges. The challenges include the potential spillover of religious extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism from Afghanistan into the Central Asian countries, as well as the influx of refugees and the disruption of regional trade and economic activities. This region, now a fertile ground for various terrorist groups, is likely to witness their impact not just within Central Asia but also beyond, highlighting the need for a comprehensive and multifaceted approach to these security challenges.  

Economic Outlook 

Since independence, Central Asian countries have transitioned from a state-controlled economy to a market economy. Despite recent challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruption and food security, rising inflation and geopolitical conflicts, the economies of Central Asian countries have shown resilience. The adverse impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Central Asia has also been relatively less than expected, further reinforcing the region’s economic stability. 

Central Asia’s share in the global Gross Domestic Product (PPP) has almost doubled since 2000. Central Asia’s total Gross Domestic Product in 2021 was $347 billion.[xv] Over the past two decades, Central Asia has seen a seven-fold increase in GDP and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) accumulation, estimated at $211 billion.[xvi] Foreign trade has increased almost six times since 2000, reaching $165.5 billion in 2021.[xvii] The role of Asian countries, such as China, India and South Korea, in the foreign trade of Central Asian countries is also increasing gradually. 

Central Asian economies experienced robust growth in the first half of 2023, driven by the resumption of international trade and tourism, especially in the post-pandemic era, and high migration and remittances from Russia. The World Bank also projects an average growth rate of 4.7 per cent for Central Asia in 2024 and 2025.[xviii] The biggest challenge for the economies of Central Asian countries is their excessive dependence on mineral resources and revenues from migrant remittances. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is an opportunity for Central Asian countries to diversify their economies. 

Connectivity Issues 

The changing geopolitical landscape of the region presents an opportunity for advancing alternative connectivity. Regional and global powers are taking initiatives to move in this direction. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on supply chains and routes have again underlined Central Asia’s importance as a crossroads. Equally significant is the Red Sea conflict, a complex geopolitical issue involving multiple countries and interests, which has had profound implications for global trade and regional stability. This conflict has further highlighted the need for alternative connectivity, thereby influencing the inter-regional dynamics of Central Asia. 

Given the recent conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US, the EU, and other regional powers are actively exploring or supporting alternative connectivity options. The “Middle Corridor”, in particular, has acquired significant attention due to its potential to facilitate alternative connectivity primarily bypassing Russia. President Biden has pledged to leverage the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) to boost American investment in the Middle Corridor and foster its expansion. European leaders have also expressed interest in the Middle Corridor, viewing it as a key component of the Global Gateway Plan.[xix] Central Asian countries are also strengthening ties with the South Caucasus region due to its importance for various connectivity initiatives in the region. Connectivity holds significant strategic importance for the landlocked countries of Central Asia, mainly in the changing geopolitical landscape in the region and beyond.    

Conclusion 

Comprehensive international partnerships are essential for Central Asia in addressing the challenges of the changing geopolitical landscape. While presenting political and diplomatic concerns to Central Asia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also empowered the region’s countries to avoid becoming economically, politically and security-wise dependent on any single country. Regional cooperation to address internal and external challenges and economic development is essential. It allows Central Asian countries to address the challenges collectively, fostering a sense of unity and shared responsibility. This collective approach is particularly important in the changing geopolitical landscape. Central Asian countries have played a significant role in maintaining a balance between regional and global powers, thereby asserting their influence and power.

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*Dr. Punit Gaur, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal

Endnotes

[i] The White House (2023), “Remarks by President Biden after Central Asia 5 + 1 Meeting,” September 19, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/09/19/remarks-by-president-biden-after-central-asia-5-1-meeting/. Accessed July 27, 2024.

[ii] Punit Gaur (2023), “Renewed Western Interest in Central Asia,” Indian Council of World Affairs, January 25, 2024, /show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=10438&lid=6660. Accessed August 7, 2024.

[iii] Tukmadiyeva, M. (2013). Xinjiang in China’s Foreign Policy toward Central Asia. Connections, 12(3), 87–108. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26326333. Accessed   August 2, 2024.

[iv] Dunford, M., & Liu, W. (2023). China’s evolving international economic engagement: China threat or a new pole in an equitable multipolar world order? Area Development and Policy, 9(2), 131–168. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2023.2225092. Accessed August 5, 2024.

[v] Necati Demircan (2023), “The Role of Turks in the New World Order: Summit of the Organization of Turkic States and Turk Time,” Modern Diplomacy, November 24, 2023, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/11/24/the-role-of-turks-in-the-new-world-order-summit-of-the-organization-of-turkic-states-and-turk-time/. Accessed August 8, 2024.

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] Stephanie Fillion (2023), With caution and tact: How Asian countries voted on Ukraine at the UN, Lowy Institute, February 9, 2023, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/caution-tact-how-asian-countries-voted-ukraine-un. Accessed August 5, 2024.

[viii] Temur Umarov (2023), “Why Did Central Asia’s Leaders Agree to Attend Moscow’s Military Parade?” Carnegie Politika, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/05/why-did-central-asias-leaders-agree-to-attend-moscows-military-parade?lang=en. Accessed August 5, 2024.

[ix] Tatiana Belousova (2023), “Central Asian foreign policy multi-vectorism pays off,” The Hindu, June 2, 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/central-asian-foreign-policy-multi-vectorism-pays-off/article66920823.ece. Accessed August 14, 2024.

[x] Chatham House (2023), “How to intervene symbolically: The CSTO in Kazakhstan, June 27, 2024, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-intervene-symbolically-csto-kazakhstan. Accessed August 18, 2024.

[xi] U.S. Department of State, “Country Reports on Terrorism 2022: Kazakhstan,” https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/kazakhstan. Accessed August 21, 2024.

[xii] Special Eurasia (2023), “Geopolitics of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO),” March 24, 2023, https://www.specialeurasia.com/2023/03/24/geopolitics-gorno-badakhshan/. Accessed August 9, 2024.

[xiii] Catherine Putz (2022), “Unrest in Central Asia: The Trouble in Karakalpakstan,” The Diplomat, July 06, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/unrest-in-central-asia-the-trouble-in-karakalpakstan/. Accessed August 25, 2024.

[xiv] Alys Davies (2022), “Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border clashes claim nearly 100 lives,” BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62950787. Accessed August 27, 2024.

[xv] Eurasian Development Bank (2022), “The Economy of Central Asia: A Fresh Perspective,” https://eabr.org/en/analytics/special-reports/. Accessed August 12, 2024.

[xvi] Ibid.

[xvii] Ibid.

[xviii] World Bank Group (2023), “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/europe-and-central-asia-economic-update#:~:text=Central%20Asia%3A%20Growth%20in%20Central,and%202025%2C%20assuming%20inflation%20moderates. Accessed August 25, 2024.

[xix] Punit Gaur (2023), “Significance of the Middle Corridor in Changing Geopolitical Landscape”, Indian Council of World Affairs, November 14, 2023, https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=10186&lid=6497#_edn32. Accessed August 22, 2024.