Introduction
Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as the ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran on July 5 in the runoff elections held between him and Saeed Jalili, and it is important to analyse the changes and continuity in Iran in the near future.[i] It will be interesting to note Pezeshkian’s plans for Iran's domestic and foreign policy on the basis of his campaign promises and his political background. He represented the reformists, while Saeed Jalili was backed by the hardliners. Considering Pezeshkian' challenges, as there are a majority of hardliners and conservatives in the Iranian Parliament and various other administrative departments, his administration is not expected to be smooth. During the election campaigns as well as otherwise, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the policies of former President Raisi and commended hardliners like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, another candidate, indicating his firm support for them. There is a lot of speculation about what Pezeshkian’s administration might look like, and in order to get a clearer picture of his future policies, it is essential to delve into his personality and background. Additionally, examining his campaign promises will help project his policies in the near future.
Personality and Background of Pezeshkian
Masoud Pezeshkian, born on September 29, 1954, in Mahabad, West Azarbaijan province, has had a remarkable journey through the corridors of Iranian politics especially in healthcare. He started his career with military service in 1973 and was stationed in Zabol, located in the southeastern region of Sistan and Baluchistan province. He completed his military service in 1975 and thereafter obtained a diploma in experimental sciences. While pursuing his degree at Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Pezeshkian was able to mobilise students to actively engage in the Iranian revolution. This showed his inclination towards moderate reforms. During the Iran-Iraq war, Pezeshkian led medical teams into dangerous areas, serving as a combatant and a doctor. He provided essential medical care to wounded soldiers stationed behind the front lines. Pezeshkian’s dedication and service during this challenging period shaped the future path and solidified his commitment to humanitarian work.[ii]
During his tenure as Health Minister from 2001 to 2005, he was instrumental in advancing the healthcare sector in Iran, implementing significant reforms, and improving medical services nationwide. A seasoned politician, Pezeshkian has been elected to the 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th Parliaments, demonstrating his enduring appeal and effectiveness as a lawmaker. His leadership qualities were further recognized when he was appointed the First Deputy Speaker of the Parliament from 2016 to 2020.[iii] Throughout his political career, Pezeshkian has endeavored to balance his reformist ambitions with the constraints of Iran's political system. His commitment to healthcare reform and social justice has remained a consistent focus in his public service as he maneuvers through the complexities of Iran's political landscape.
Pezeshkian's political record stands out in contrast to the issues of corruption and nepotism that have troubled other leaders in the Islamic Republic. Known for his integrity, he has consistently called out governmental errors. Following the 2009 Presidential election, which was met with widespread controversy and significant unrest, he expressed concerns about the government's response to protesters. His comments were met with criticism from some conservative members of Parliament. Pezeshkian criticised Iran's approach to handling the 2018 demonstrations as “scientifically and intellectually wrong”. He attributed all the occurrences to the country's system and expressed that “Iranian government should have done better”[iv] Furthermore, he strongly condemned the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman who tragically died in the custody of the morality police in September 2022, an incident that ignited nationwide "Woman, Life, Freedom" rallies. His reformist stance became more evident after this incident, he condemned it by saying, “It is unacceptable in the Islamic Republic to arrest a girl for hijab and then hand over her dead body to her family.” Accordingly, he was rejected by the Guardian Council during the 2021 Presidential elections and disqualified by the Interior Ministry in 2023 for Parliamentary elections.
Pezeshkian’s Election Campaign
Masoud Pezeshkian launched his campaign with the slogan “For-Iran,” emphasizing the importance of entrusting tasks to experienced and knowledgeable individuals. His campaign highlighted his plans for economic and social reforms, aiming to address the needs of the Iranian people comprehensively.[v] In his campaign, he emphasized that competence, skill, and experience should take precedence over political affiliations in the selection of government officials. He highlighted the significance of upholding and fulfilling promises as a pivotal factor in maintaining moral standards, stressing the importance of showing respect towards individuals, ensuring their voices are heard, and advocating for actions based on principles of justice and righteousness. He reiterated the guiding principle of the country's foreign policy as “Neither East nor West,” outlining his commitment to advancing national interests in the international arena.[vi] Accordingly, he underscored the importance of prioritizing relationships with neighboring nations and expanding global connections to foster the country's growth. He highlighted the necessity of diversifying foreign policy options to enhance trade and engagement, aiming to create a more resilient and prosperous economy. Thus, he said “No government in history has been able to flourish inside a cage,” referring to the impact of sanctions on Iran’s spiraling economy.[vii]
During the debates for the runoff elections, Pezeshkian proposed that a group of economists get together to come up with ideas and provide detailed blueprints. He reaffirmed his commitment to enforcing housing restrictions, stressed the need for less government interference in stock market pricing to maintain stability, and presented proposals to match pay increases with inflation in order to keep housing affordable. He also emphasised the need for rural development to reduce urban overpopulation.[viii] Also in the same debate, he advocated for the liberalization of car imports to stimulate local competition and committed to combating corruption, fostering a transparent economy, and promoting economic growth. He is optimistic that through economic structural reforms and the creation of a favorable investment climate, job opportunities can be generated, and unemployment reduced, and he has pledged to address the current inflation rate of around 40%. As a prospective President, he underscored Iran's potential to attract $200 billion in foreign investments, stressing the need for improved international relations—especially with the West, where ties are currently at a historic low—to unlock this economic potential.[ix] During his campaign, he was adamantly against the government's repression of Iranian women who disobeyed the hijab's laws and regulations. He therefore pledged further freedoms, including social justice, equality of rights, and freedom on social media platforms. He has also acknowledged that, while fulfilling these promises, he might face challenges from hardliners and conservatives inside the Iranian parliament.
One of the notable aspects of Pezeshkian’s campaign was his announcement of Javad Zarif, as a potential candidate to lead the Foreign Ministry. This move signaled his commitment to experienced leadership and continuity in Iran’s diplomatic efforts. Pezeshkian also declared that he will choose Mr. Zarif, who worked with Raisi's predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, to finalise the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) indicating that his government wants to put that nuclear agreement back on the table.[x] Throughout his campaign, Pezeshkian remained steadfast in his commitment to abide by the Islamic Republic’s legal framework and the policies defined by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. He emphasized that his administration would be guided by the principles of justice, respect, and national interests, ensuring that all actions are aligned with the country's long-term goals and values. His multifaceted career and his dedication to public service have made him a prominent figure in Iranian politics and the campaign for the Presidency in 2024 reflects his enduring commitment to reform and progress, aiming to build a more united, competent, and prosperous Iran.
What can we expect under new leadership?
Strong ties with other countries
Masoud Pezeshkian wants to make the region strong on the basis of ‘power of logic’ and not ‘logic of power’. Accordingly, the new administration can advocate for a ‘strong region’ instead of one dominated by a single country.[xi] He has had telephonic conversations with numerous leaders from countries including Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Uzbekistan, focusing on maintaining and improving relations with them. One of the important objectives of the new administration is to connect various countries for trade due to Iran’s unique geography.[xii] Iran’s new government is anticipated to continue strengthening relationships with Russia, China, and India as part of its “Look East” policy. In Pezeshkian's latest speech, while criticizing the USA and western countries for backing out of the JCPOA agreement, he admired Russia and China for standing with Iran even in difficult times.[xiii] China has recently reciprocated this relationship by willing to host senior officials from Gaza-based Palestinian resistance movement Hamas and West bank based movement Fatah.[xiv] We can also anticipate improved relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors in various sectors, such as trade and diplomacy.[xv] Additionally, cooperation with Saudi Arabia could advance the new government's objectives.
Controlling inflation and strengthening Iranian Rial
During election debates, Pezeshkian has repeatedly stressed the need to lift sanctions and tackle inflation, presenting plans to adjust salaries in line with inflation to ensure affordable housing. He also underscored the importance of rural development to ease urban congestion, pointed out the role of exports in controlling inflation, and proposed initiatives to provide free healthcare and inflation-adjusted salaries for retirees. Also, there can be various ways that Iran can implement policies to lower inflation and increase the value of its currency. The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has occasionally adjusted interest rates to manage inflation. While these measures have achieved some short-term success, persistent economic issues and external pressures have often undermined their long-term effectiveness. In 2010, a notable fiscal policy measure was introduced under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, involving a substantial subsidy reform plan, and in the short term this approach reduced the fiscal deficit and controlled the inflation. Structural reforms have also targeted productivity improvements through investments in infrastructure and technology. For instance, during President Hassan Rouhani’s administration, there was a focus on enhancing the infrastructure and technology in the oil and gas sector. These investments positively impacted productivity and economic growth, although broader structural challenges persist. It is to be noted that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement in 2015 under President Rouhani significantly improved trade relations, with the lifting of some sanctions temporarily boosting trade and economic activity, thus stabilizing prices and controlling inflation. However, the re-imposition of sanctions in 2018 negated many of these benefits. Economically, Pezeshkian wants Iran to open up its economy to the world through diplomacy and dialogue and has said that Iran has a huge potential for attracting foreign investments and thus can also facilitate technology transfer that can drive innovation and development within Iran.
Focus on the Global South and Multilateralism
The new administration is expected to focus more on the Global South by actively participating in international organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. Recently, in a telephonic conversation, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Pezeshkian agreed to sign the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in Russia at the BRICS Summit in October in Russia.[xvi] Additionally, Rouhollah Mousavi, a member of the Iranian Parliament's Internal Affairs and Councils Commission, stated in an IRNA interview during his visit to a BRICS parliamentary forum in Russia that Iran can sell oil and gas to BRICS countries in exchange for banking and trade services.[xvii] Also on multilateralism, Iran's Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani emphasized that the new approach and foreign policy of the elected President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is centered on strengthening multilateralism, aligning with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law. In his statement at the Security Council High-Level Ministerial Meeting on “Multilateral cooperation in the interest of a more just, democratic, and sustainable world order,” Bagheri Kani highlighted the commitment to a foreign policy that fosters greater multilateral engagement.[xviii]
Iran’s Stance on Palestine and Israel will not change
Pezeshkian maintains the same stance as previous governments, condemning Israel for occupying Palestinian territories and sponsoring state terrorism against Palestinian citizens. He views a nuclear-armed Israel as a significant threat to Iran. Recently, in reference to Hezbollah and allied groups, Pezeshkian said: “The support of the resistance is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” [xix] Thus, Iran’s stand on Palestine and that on other resistance groups in the region will not change in the future. Accordingly, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, recently reiterated that a comprehensive referendum involving all Muslim, Jewish, and Christian citizens of Palestine is the most effective solution to the Palestinian issue.
Improving relations with the West
Improving relations with the West to reduce Iran’s isolation and reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are significant objectives that Pezeshkian may pursue during his Presidency. Uncertainty might remain until the USA elections in November. Meanwhile, the current US administration has shown reluctance to resume any nuclear negotiations. The new Iranian government might have to maintain a delicate balance between its allies and the West, as hardliners have already stated that any agreement perceived as a loss for Iran must be unequivocally rejected. These efforts are critical for alleviating economic sanctions and integrating Iran more fully into the global community.
Human Rights in Iran
Pezeshkian is committed to enhancing human rights, with a particular focus on improving the treatment of women and minorities, and he also supports the implementation of Article 15 of the Iranian Constitution, which promotes the use and teaching of local and ethnic languages. The new government might also relax restrictions on various social media websites.[xx] While these proposed reforms aim to foster a more inclusive and humane society, they may face resistance from conservative elements within the Iranian Parliament. Pezeshkian will likely need to win widespread support to put his modest reforms into effect, drawing comparisons to how Khatami struggled with a conservative-dominated Parliament in his final year in office. Nonetheless, under his leadership, there is hope for gradual progress in social and human rights reforms. In social and civil reforms, the new government might relax some of Iran's more stringent social policies, including advocating for a more compassionate approach to the enforcement of the mandatory hijab law. Pezeshkian has expressed a desire to implement a less coercive form of social governance, responding to public dissatisfaction with the morality police’s strict dress code enforcement. In a debate with Saed Jalili, he stated that his administration would take measures to address and counter the actions of the morality police.
Conclusion
The victory of Masoud Pezeshkian in the Iran Presidential election is significant, and his election may lead to some adjustments in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy priorities, tone, and tactics. However, a major shift in the status quo is not expected. The core principles guiding Iran’s strategic decisions, particularly regarding the U.S. and Israel, remain anchored in the framework established by the Supreme Leader and influential bodies like the Revolutionary Guard. The Supreme Leader has praised former President Raisi’s qualities and foreign policies, thus indicating support for the continuation of those policies.[xxi] Pezeshkian's ability to realise his vision will be challenged by the complex dynamics of Iranian politics, where hardliners have enormous power in Parliament and society and also where the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, maintains ultimate power.
While the office of the Supreme Leader is constitutionally the most powerful in Iran, the Presidential position should not be underestimated. Since 1989, Iran has had five different Presidents, and despite the Supreme Leader’s ultimate authority, each President's tenure has seen distinct policy approaches. For example, Iran's foreign policy experienced Ahmadinejad’s confrontational stance with the West, followed by Rouhani’s engagement policy, which led to the 2015 JCPOA agreement. This was again followed by a hardline approach under President Ebrahim Raisi, who assumed office in 2021.[xxii] Thus, although the Supreme Leader has the final say on national security matters, the President can influence how these objectives are pursued.
Given this context, Pezeshkian's Presidency might focus on incremental reforms and a careful balancing act to navigate the complex political landscape. His moderate stance and previous experience in Khatami's administration could help him appeal to both reformists and moderate conservatives. Nonetheless, the substantial influence of hardliners and the overarching authority of the Supreme Leader will shape the extent to which Pezeshkian can implement his policies.
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*Kushagra Kushwaha, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] “Pezeshkian wins Iranian Presidential election,” Iranian Students News Agency, July 6, 2024, https://en.isna.ir/news/1403041610857/Pezeshkian-wins-Iranian-Presidential-election.
[ii] “Who Is Masoud Pezeshkian?,” Tehran Times, July 6, 2024, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/500804/Who-is-Masoud-Pezeshkian.
[iii] PressTV, “Profile: Masoud Pezeshkian, the President-elect of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” July 6, 2024, https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/07/06/728797/profile-masoud-pezeshkian-president-elect-islamic-republic-iran.
[iv] Etv Bharat, “Dr Masoud Pezeshkian: Can New Iran President Deliver on His Reformist Agenda?,” ETV Bharat News, July 7, 2024, https://www.etvbharat.com/en/!international/dr-masoud-pezeshkian-can-new-iran-president-deliver-on-his-reformist-agenda-enn24070603975.
[v] PressTV, “Profile: Masoud Pezeshkian, the President-elect of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” July 6, 2024, https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/07/06/728797/profile-masoud-pezeshkian-president-elect-islamic-republic-iran.
[vi] Nairobi Kenya, “Profile: Masoud Pezeshkian, the president-elect of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” https://en.icro.ir/, July 7, 2024, https://en.icro.ir/Nairobi-News/Profile:-Masoud-Pezeshkian,-the-president%E2%80%93elect-of-the-Islamic-Republic-of-Iran.
[vii] Ap, “Iran’s Presidential Candidates Discuss Economic Sanctions and Nuclear Deal Ahead of July 5 Runoff,” Arab News, July 3, 2024, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2542471/middle-east.
[viii] PressTV, “Analysis: How Presidential Hopefuls Outlined Economic Blueprints in Final Runoff Debate,” July 3, 2024, https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/07/03/728603/analysis-how-presidential-hopefuls-outlined-economic-blueprints-final-runoff-debate.
[ix] “Iran 2024: Reformer Pezeshkian on the Path to Reforms?,” n.d., https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/iran-2024-reformer-pezeshkian-on-the-path-to-reforms/5364.
[x] Joaquin Matamis, “Influential Reformists Coalesce Around Pezeshkian for Iran Presidential Candidate,” Stimson Center, June 12, 2024, https://www.stimson.org/2024/influential-reformists-coalesce-around-pezeshkian-for-iran-presidential-candidate/.
[xi] Mehr News Agency, “Pezeshkian Says Ready for Constructive Dialog With Arab World,” Mehr News Agency, July 11, 2024, https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217682/Pezeshkian-says-ready-for-constructive-dialog-with-Arab-world.
[xii] “Russia Sends First Coal Cargo to India via Iranian Railway,” n.d., https://en.otaghiranonline.ir/news/45578#:~:text=Russia%20plans%20coal%20exports%20to%20India%20via%20Iran's%20railways&text=10%20June%202024-,Russia%20has%20for%20the%20first%20time%20sent%20two%20trains%20laden,by%20Russia's%20national%20railway%20company.
[xiii] Amir Vahdat, “Iran’s New President Vows Balance With All Countries but Warns US His Country Won’t Be Pressured | AP News,” AP News, July 13, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/irans-president-relations-eu-us-russia-china-6a89f9db08985385dbf108ef98b9ed01.
[xiv] Mehr News Agency, “China to Host Hamas, Fatah to Resolve Their Differences,” Mehr News Agency, July 16, 2024, https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217908/China-to-host-Hamas-Fatah-to-resolve-their-differences.
[xv] Tasnim News Agency, “Constructive Dialogue for Regional Cooperation Sole Way to Meet Challenges: Pezeshkian,” Tasnim News Agency, July 11, 2024, https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/07/11/3120425/constructive-dialogue-for-regional-cooperation-sole-way-to-meet-challenges-pezeshkian.
[xvi] Tass, “Iran Ready to Sign Strategic Pact With Russia at BRICS Summit in Kazan — President,” TASS, July 9, 2024, https://tass.com/world/1814573.
[xvii] “‘Iran Ready to Meet BRICS Energy Demands,’” Tehran Times, July 17, 2024, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/501197/Iran-ready-to-meet-BRICS-energy-demands#:~:text=TEHRAN%20%2D%20A%20senior%20Iranian%20lawmaker,growing%20energy%20demands%2C%20IRNA%20reported.
[xviii] KhabarOnline News Agency, “Acting FM: Iran’s New Gov’t Foreign Policy Based on Strengthening Multilateralism,” KhabarOnline, July 16, 2024, https://english.khabaronline.ir/news/197968/Acting-FM-Iran-s-new-gov-t-foreign-policy-based-on-strengthening.
[xix] “Iran president-elect reiterates support for Hezbollah,” Naharnet, July 9, 2024, https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/306420.
[xx] Ahmet Furkan Ozyakar, “Can Masoud Pezeshkian Transform Iran'S Domestic and Foreign Policy?,” Can Masoud Pezeshkian Transform Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policy?, July 9, 2024, https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/can-masoud-pezeshkian-transform-irans-domestic-and-foreign-policy-18181855.
[xxi] Marzieh Rahmani, “Raeisi’s Characteristics Role Model for Managing Country,” Mehr News Agency, July 7, 2024, https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217419/Leader-meets-outgoing-administration-officials.
[xxii] Harshit Sharma, “Masoud Pezeshkian and Why His Election Is a Face-Saver for Iran’S Islamic Rulers,” StratNews Global, July 10, 2024, https://stratnewsglobal.com/iran/masoud-pezeshkian-and-why-his-election-is-a-face-saver-for-irans-islamic-rulers/.