As drone technology is being used extensively in contemporary armed conflicts, scholars and policy makers have called Unmanned Aerial Vehicles otherwise known as “drones” as a major characteristic of today’s military technologies.[i] In 2020, it was drones that won the war for Azerbaijan.[ii] Since drones are a dual use technology, the development of drones by some countries has caused a security dilemma which has pushed states into a Thucydides’ trap[iii]. Drones’ proliferation has become prevalent among non-state actors too. Drone and missile air strikes carried by Pakistan against Iran, Houthis firing their largest-ever barrage of drones and missiles targeting ships in the Red Sea, Turkish military successfully using drone-based airpower against the Syrian Arab Army in Northern Syria, the Bayraktar TB2 drone supplied by Turkey to Ukraine, Russia launching numerous drone attacks against Ukraine etc. showcase increasing use of drones among state and non-state actors.
While drones can be put to legitimate civilian use, increasing deployment of drones by states and non-state actors in conflict situations comes with its own associated risks for international security environment. Much like other countries, this drone proliferation is impacting Indian security dynamics too, propelling India to play a proactive role in drones’ development, production, capability building, and deployment while advocating for their responsible use.
This Special Report discusses the advent of drones, their increased military application over the years and India’s efforts in developing it’s indigenous military drone ecosystem.
Becoming of a Drone World
Unmanned aircraft is hardly a new phenomenon, though the technology has grown notably over the last twenty years. Drones or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is defined as a ‘powered, aerial vehicle that does not carry a human operator, uses aerodynamic forces to provide vehicle lift, can fly autonomously through software or be piloted remotely, can be expendable or recoverable, and can carry a lethal or nonlethal payload’.[iv] Drones are a combination of software and hardware equipped with rotors, sensors, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), navigation systems etc operated by ground control stations.[v] These drones are being used for both civilian (agriculture, disaster, mining, meteorology, surveying, mining, construction, to name a few, etc.) and military purposes.
The military application of drones is widespread depending on the kind of drone i.e. armed and unarmed drones. Unarmed drones are used for surveillance missions while armed systems can carry out lethal missions, in addition to surveillance missions. Drones are used for a number of purposes including surveillance, reconnaissance, establishing military data links and supply delivery, etc. Also, armed drones are even being developed for use in missile defence.
Militaries first started developing UAVs in the early 20th century but drone use could not take off because of technological hurdles thus preventing its widespread acceptance.[vi] In 1960’s, US used UAV’s for surveillance in Vietnam, Israel used it in Lebanon war, and western intelligence agencies used armed drones in covert operations in areas outside the military battlefield such as in Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia.[vii] Following the September 11 attacks, U.S. expenditure on unmanned aircraft skyrocketed pushing other states towards drone proliferation resulting in an increased global demand. By 2019, researchers at the Center for the Study of the Drone, a research institution at New York’s Bard College have estimated that nearly 100 countries owned military drones and more than 30,000 drones are deployed in military services across the globe.[viii] Researchers cataloged 171 types of drones in military inventories and 268 military-drone units established by 58 countries. As the drones proliferated, the range of models also expanded, representing a wide spectrum of capabilities and sizes.[ix] According to the US Air Force tier system the drones are categorized based on sizes, endurance and range as Tier I include low altitude, low endurance drones like the Orbiter: Tier II is comprised of medium altitude, long endurance drones like the Reaper or the Predator; and Tier II+ applies to high altitude, long endurance drones like the Global Hawk.[x]
The drone market is growing very fast. The three biggest drone producers and sellers are United States, Israel and China. Apart from these global players, regional players like Turkey and Iran are also growing at a very fast pace. The first chart shows the leading exporters of military drones. And according to SIPRI’s arms transfers’ database, India and the United Kingdom are the largest importers of drones globally. The table below discusses the most popular drones with their exporter countries and the importing countries.[xi] The drone importing countries vastly outnumber exporting states as importing countries are spread all around the globe from Africa, West Asia, and Europe etc as compared to the small cluster of exporting countries.[xii] These drones are being used in clandestine operations, extrajudicial targeted killings, in carrying out terrorist operations especially the use of long range, military grade kamikaze drones (constructed from commercial components in contravention of the export controls).[xiii]
Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, March 13, 2023, https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers. Figure 2
Source: Created by the Researcher (Anubha)
Why Use of Drones is Increasing and the International Response
Military drones are today being deployed for many aspects of warfare, from insurgencies to inter-state conflicts. There are two competing narratives that dominate debates around the increasing use of drone.[xiv] One camp calls drone technology as transformative since it is dual–use and it reduces risk to soldiers, thereby lowering the barrier for use of force, therefore, calling for increased drone adoption by countries. The second camp does not see drones as transformative as drones replicate most of what the other air technologies can do.[xv] This section further explores the narratives given by first camp that drone use is and will rise.
There are two sides to increased use of drones, one is supply side and the other is demand side. On the supply side, the exporter countries are being able to spread the drones across the world because drone making has become cost effective, technological advancements have led to increase in drone making capabilities and there are no formal global rules restricting their exports.[xvi]
The demand side of increased use of drones has mostly become a function of the threat environment. Drones are being used for countering the extreme security threats (Azerbaijan, Ethiopia), as a part of military deployment (US, China) or alliance commitments (US and NATO).[xvii] Mostly states pursue drones on facing security threats in terms of border disputes, terrorism, or to combat insurgencies etc. The cases in point being India’s military standoff with China has pushed India on equipping it’s defence services with drones that can function at the high altitudes of its northern theatre. It also wants bigger, armed drones that can target terrorist camps across the Pakistani border with precision missiles.[xviii] France, for example, bought unarmed MQ-9 Reapers from the US to boost its surveillance capabilities and help track alleged insurgents and al Qaeda operatives.[xix] Using drones improves a country’s surveillance or strike mission which allows countries to avoid putting their pilots at risk. Moreover, drones have an ability to loiter longer over a target providing real time awareness that manned aircrafts are unable to provide. A US RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 40, a US surveillance drone, to a U-2, a manned surveillance airplane fly almost at a same height yet while the U-2 can stay in the air for only several hours at a time, a single Global Hawk could can loiter around a target for up to twenty-four hours.[xx] This makes the drone seem as a simple solution for the protection of state’s soldiers, civilians, and the destruction of military targets of the enemy.
The unique characteristics of drones offer several advantages to state and non-state actors, which has resulted in the spread of drones, nonetheless, drones are no risk-free technology. In September 2015, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Acting High Representative for Disarmament, Mr Kim Won-soo observed that armed UAVs “have unique characteristics that make them particularly susceptible to misuse in comparison to other technologies. These include their low costs, which can aid their rapid proliferation; their loitering persistence and precision, which can tempt covert armed forces and non-State actors to use them secretly and without appropriate transparency, oversight and accountability; and the minimal risk to their operators, which can lower political thresholds for the use of force.”[xxi] To non- state actors like various terrorist groups, drones have provided new methods of using lethal force. The findings from the case studies conducted by Conflict Armament Research (CAR) have found that in Iraq and Yemen non-state armed groups are using drones for terrorism by primarily exploiting the commercial drones and building their own drones. Further, ISIS have invested millions in building an effective drone program with weaponised commercial drone components which is being copied by other terrorist groups to exercise lethal force in the form of improvised explosive devices.[xxii]
The increased use of drones has generated several international responses to deal with the risks associated with drones. Through the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms and the Wassenaar Arrangement (which deals with dual-use technology) and MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) some states have taken steps to address issues related to transfers and holdings of armed drones.[xxiii] The United States announced efforts in mid-2016 to increase transparency about the impact of its drone strikes, resulting in a “Joint Declaration for the Export and Subsequent Use of Armed or Strike-Enabled UAVs”.[xxiv] The states have realized that it is time to draw a comprehensive legal framework around drones to address the risk associated with the use of drones with respect to civilian protection, the maintenance of international peace and security, and the rule of law.
India and it’s Drone Ecosystem
India fully understands the significance of drones in today’s complex geopolitical conditions, its military standoff with China; it’s rivalry with Pakistan and the threat of terrorism.[xxv] In June 2021, India witnessed first of its kind terror attack carried out by drones which injured army personnel at the Jammu Air Force Station. [xxvi] Also, particularly Punjab and Jammu, instances of use of drones to drop arms, ammunitions and drugs have been witnessed.[xxvii] India has been long thinking about drones. India is one of the largest importers of drones and it mostly imports from Israel. Indian military has procured Heron I, the Searcher Mk II, and the Harop loitering munitions from Israel.[xxviii] The Indian Army has recently bought four advanced drones from Israel (advanced Heron 2) which are satellite linked to surveil the LAC. The Army has also ordered for over 100 tactical Indo-Israel kamikaze drones which were used in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, to increase its operational capability along the borders with China and Pakistan.[xxix] India has also received approval from US State Department for the acquisition of 31 armed MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones.[xxx]Apart from imports, India’s public sector is also producing indigenously. Drones have been an important part of India’s military since 1990 starting with DRDO’s project to build Nishant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.[xxxi] In addition to Nishant, India has built Rustom, Netra etc. TheTapas Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV developed for Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) applicationsis in an advanced stage of developmental trials.
Further, India is also pushing for indigenous private military drone ecosystem. Prime Minister Modi’s view is very clear that is to focus on Indian companies and faster adoption of new age technology like drones.[xxxii] Amidst the government’s push for new technology and enthusiasm shown by Indian startups, India is vigorously looking at building it’s indigenous military drone ecosystem. In August 2021, new rules for drone technologies were notified by the central government. Through the ‘Drone Rules 2021’, the Government of India aims to give a fillip to its nascent indigenous drone industry, especially as the government is preparing to build a strong military-industrial complex in the country.
India has witnessed the growth of many drone manufacturers and the top drone manufacturers in India currently include ideaForge, Aarav Unmanned System (AUS), Asteria aerospace, IOTech, and Hubbal Fly. The military has been continuously engaging with private drone players in the country. For example, two deals for Swarm drones were signed with Bengaluru based Indian startups NewSpace Research and Tech and Noida-based firm Raphe. Again in 2021 the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force signed multiple contracts in the sphere of drone technology with the focus on Indian companies.[xxxiii] In January, ideaForge received one of the largest small drone contracts worth $20 million for it’s SWITCH 1.0 UAVs, which will be inducted in the Indian armed forces.[xxxiv] These UAVs are capable of long duration operations, long endurance surveillance and security inspection. Indian firm Zen has received an order from Indian Air force to develop counter unmanned aerial systems.
Indian private drone industry is expanding it’s wings but is still in its nascent stage but the prospects are bright. India is estimated to develop a multibillion-dollar industry of drones in the next decade.[xxxv] Due to its historical strengths in innovation, information technology, cost effective engineering, and high local demand, India has the ability to become a worldwide drone hub by 2030. India is slowly making way for indigenous drone ecosystem to decrease it’s dependence on other countries for drones imports.
Conclusion
Drones have become an important feature of 21st century and the use of drones has risen sharply around the world. Though drones offer many advantages to the military as it lessens the risks to army personnel, increases situational awareness through better surveillance and intelligence gathering which on one hand promotes trust but on the other hand lowers the threshold of use of force by making war easier and also the fear of drones falling into the hands of non-state actors and terrorist groups. This brings to the fore the urgent need to align drone use with internationally agreed principles and regulations for their production, use and transfer.
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*Anubha Gupta, Research Associate, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Matthew Fuhrmann and Michael C. Horowitz, “Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles”, International Organisation, vol. 71, no. 2 (2017), pp.397-418. Available at file:///C:/Users/Dr%20Puyam/Downloads/S0020818317000121.pdf, Accessed on 5th January 2024.
[ii] Snehesh Alex Philip, “Drones won the war for Azerbaijan. India must spend military modernisation money wisely,” ThePrint, November 20, 2020, Available at https://theprint.in/opinion/brahmastra/drones-won-war-for-azerbaijan-india-must-spend-military-modernisation-money-wisely/548029/, Accessed on 7th January 2024
[iii] Is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.
[iv] https://www.thefreedictionary.com/UAV
[v] Sam Daley, “Drone Technology: What is a Drone,”BuiltIn, March 23, 2023, Available at https://builtin.com/drones
, Accessed on 10th January 2024.
[vi] John Borrie, Elena Finckh and Kerstin Vignard, “Increasing Transparency, Oversight and Accountability of Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” UNIDIR, December 1, 2017, Available at https://unidir.org/publication/increasing-transparency-oversight-and-accountability-of-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicles/ Accessed on 12th January, 2024
[vii] Ibid.
[viii] Warren B. Strobel, “Military Drones Now Common to Nearly 100 Nations, Report Finds,” The Wall Street Journal, September 25, 2019, Available at https://www.wsj.com/articles/military-drones-now-common-to-nearly-100-nations-report-finds-11569403805 Accessed on 12th January, 2024
[ix]Ibid.
[x]https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/world-drones/introduction-how-we-became-a-world-of-drones/
[xi]https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/world-drones/introduction-how-we-became-a-world-of-drones/#:~:text=According%20to%20SIPRI's%20arms%20transfers,largest%20importers%20of%20drones%20internationally.
[xii] Steven Feldstein, “How Global Demand for Military Drones is Transforming International Security and Geopolitics,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 6, 2023, Available at https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/91222#:~:text=Military%20use%20of%20drones%20is,capabilities%2C%20and%20minimal%20export%20restrictions. Accessed on 17th January, 2024.
[xiii] Drone proliferation is on the rise and so is the need for international regulation, PaxforPeace, November 30, 2023, Available at https://paxforpeace.nl/news/drone-proliferation-is-on-the-rise-and-so-is-the-need-for-international-regulation/#:~:text=international%20regulation%20%2D%20PAX-,Drone%20proliferation%20is%20on%20the%20rise%20%E2%80%93%20and%20so,the%20need%20for%20internati Accessed on 17th January, 2024.
[xiv] Michael C. Horowitz, Sarah E. Kreps, Matthew Fuhrmann; Separating Fact from Fiction in the Debate over Drone Proliferation. International Security vol.42, no. 2 (2016), Available at doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00257 Accessed on 24th January 2024.
[xv] Ibid.
[xvi] Steven Feldstein, “How Global Demand for Military Drones is Transforming International Security and Geopolitics,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Johns Hopkins University Press, vol. 24, no.2 (2023), 146-155. Available at https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/913640/pdf accessed on 24th January, 2024.
[xvii] Ibid.
[xviii] Sandeep Unnithan, “Raising a swarm,” India Today, November 2, 2020, Available at https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/defence/story/20201102-raising-a-swarm-1734183-2020-10-23 Accessed on 28th January 2024
[xix] Matthew Fuhrmann and Michael C. Horowitz, “Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles”, International Organisation, vol. 71, no. 2 (2017), pp.397-418. Available at file:///C:/Users/Dr%20Puyam/Downloads/S0020818317000121.pdf, Accessed on 5th January, 2024.
[xx] Ibid.
[xxi] Elena Finckh, John Borrie and Kerstin Vingard (2017), “Increasing-transparency-oversight-and-accountability-of-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicles,”UNIDIR, Available at https://unidir.org/publication/increasing-transparency-oversight-and-accountability-of-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicles/ Accessed on 30th January, 2024
[xxii] Ibid.
[xxiii] Elena Finckh, John Borrie and Kerstin Vingard (2017), “Increasing-transparency-oversight-and-accountability-of-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicles,”UNIDIR, Available at https://unidir.org/publication/increasing-transparency-oversight-and-accountability-of-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicles/ Accessed on 5th Feb 2024
[xxiv] Ibid.
[xxv] Pintu Kumar Mahla, “Military Drones in India New Frontier of Warfare,” IDSA, Available at https://idsa.in/system/files/jds/jds-16-4_Pintu-Kumar-Mahla_15.pdf Accessed on 5th Feb 2024
[xxvi] Rakshit Kweera, “Drones: An Emerging Threat on the Volatile India-Pakistan Border,” The Diplomat, Available at https://thediplomat.com/2023/05/drones-an-emerging-threat-on-the-volatile-india-pakistan-border/#:~:text=India%20witnessed%20a%20significant%20drone,improvised%20explosive%20devices%20(IEDs). Accessed on
[xxvii] Pia Krishnankutty, “Why India’s drone market could become a multi-billion-dollar industry in next decade,” The Print, July 23, 2021, Available at https://theprint.in/india/governance/why-indias-drone-market-could-become-a-multi-billion-dollar-industry-in-next-decade/700817/ Accessed on 10th Feb 2024
[xxviii] Ibid.
[xxix] Snehesh Alex Philip, “Drones won the war for Azerbaijan. India must spend military modernisation money wisely,” ThePrint, November 20, 2020, Available at https://theprint.in/opinion/brahmastra/drones-won-war-for-azerbaijan-india-must-spend-military-modernisation-money-wisely/548029/ , Accessed on 7th January 2024
[xxx] “India to acquire 31 MQ-9B armed drones from US. All you need to know about the deal,” Livemint, February 6, 2024, Available at https://www.livemint.com/news/world/india-to-acquire-31-mq-9b-armed-drones-from-us-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-deal-11707189402807.html Accessed on 9th Feb 2024
[xxxi] Pintu Kumar Mahla, “Military Drones in India New Frontier of Warfare,” IDSA, Available at https://idsa.in/system/files/jds/jds-16-4_Pintu-Kumar-Mahla_15.pdf Accessed on 10th Feb 2024
[xxxii] Snehesh Alex Philip, “Drones won the war for Azerbaijan. India must spend military modernisation money wisely,” ThePrint, November 20, 2020, Available at https://theprint.in/opinion/brahmastra/drones-won-war-for-azerbaijan-india-must-spend-military-modernisation-money-wisely/548029/ , Accessed on 7th January 2024
[xxxiii] Ibid
[xxxiv]ideaForgeI, Available at https://ideaforgetech.com/blogs/indian-army-signs-a-20-million-contract-with-ideaforge-to-procure-switch-uav , Accessed on 9th Feb 2024
[xxxv] Pia Krishnankutty, “Why India’s drone market could become a multi-billion-dollar industry in next decade,” The Print, July 23, 2021, Available at https://theprint.in/india/governance/why-indias-drone-market-could-become-a-multi-billion-dollar-industry-in-next-decade/700817/ Accessed on 10th Feb 2024