A series of general elections will begin in Latin American in 2024 encompassing Panama, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Uruguay, and potentially Venezuela. In recent times, people in Latin America have favoured non-traditional parties and individuals because of rejection of incumbents and their inclination for issues related to governance, security, and economic growth, in contrast to ideological alignment. Political and social management, and robust economic performance are the main parameters in elections. Recent electoral outcomes in El Salvador, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile, Brazil, Guatemala, and Argentina exemplify this trend.
Throughout the forthcoming election process in Latin American countries, issues such as unemployment, corruption, economic shocks brought on by climate change and other external factors, security, and rising crime, will be crucial. Hence, it is expected that aspiring candidates will seek to attract voters on these issues.
On foreign policy, these countries have adopted a practical stance, emphasising well-balanced interactions with various nations to maximise advantages. Overall, the demand for better governance and addressing urgent domestic challenges is expected to overshadow ideological leanings in the upcoming elections.
This paper will look into the elections in each country and the factors in play.
Panama
Panama will conduct its elections on the 5th of May for the President, Vice-President, and 71 seats of the National Assembly. As there are no provisions for a run-off, the candidate winning the largest share of votes emerges as the winner for a five-year term.
Current President Laurentino Cortizo from the left leaning Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) is ineligible for re-election as per the constitutional provisions, hence current Vice-President Jose Gabriel Carrizo will be the Presidential candidate from the PRD. The incumbent government faces various opposition parties across various ideological spectrums[i].
Ricardo Martinelli from the conservative Realising Goals party (RM) was considered a frontrunner in the contest but was recently disqualified by the Supreme Court in a corruption case, yet he has pledged to contest. Martin Torrijos, a former President is contesting from the conservative Popular Party (PP) which he founded after it split from the PRD. Romulo Roux, former Foreign Minister, will contest from the right leaning Democratic Change (CD) party in an alliance with the Panameñista (PAN) party. Ricardo Lombana from the conservative Another Way Movement (MOCA) has expressed his desire to contest.
Panama is witnessing a wave of anti-establishment sentiment emanating from the inability to tackle climate change-induced crises[ii], unfinished infrastructure projects, and political corruption. Corruption in a mining contract[iii] between the government and a Canadian company has especially been in the news. The pandemic and the subsequent Ukraine crisis led to economic slow-down, and President Laurentino Cortizo who had won the 2019 election on the issue of tackling corruption and rendering economic justice faced difficulties in addressing financial problems where inflation, unemployment, and price rise led to protests in 2022. Proposed Chinese funded infrastructure projects such as the construction of a US $ 1.5 billion bridge over the Panama Canal, the Panama Colon Container Port, and the fourth Trans-Panama Power Line were delayed leading to discontentment[iv]. The current government faces criticism[v] from the Opposition for corruption and inability to cater to the economic and social demands of the people.
Additionally, the government has faced criticisms due to the crisis over the Panama Canal caused by climatic factors, which has seen diminished traffic and lower revenues. While on an average Panama earns US $ 3 billion per annum, since October 2023 the total revenue has reduced by US $ 100 million per month and this situation is likely to continue.
President Cortizo’s administration in the initial stages exhibited certain trends in limiting relations with China, based on ideological convictions. Chinese infrastructure projects such as a high-speed train, an electrical transmission project, and port concessions were stalled. However, the intent to start trade talks with China surfaced in 2022 to access the huge Chinese market. The current administration has also supported dialogue between the United States and Venezuela and had previously criticised the exclusion of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua from the Summit of the Americas in 2022. Hence, President Cortizo’s government showed recalibration in the context of trade and diversifying foreign relations in the later stages of the Presidency. Vice-President Carrizo representing the incumbent party is campaigning on the achievements of the current administration which includes, stalling the adverse effects of the pandemic, restarting some of the stalled public work projects, and improving the living standards of the people. He has focussed on the availability of cheaper medicines, a strong social security fund, strengthening of institutions, and transparency[vi].
Despite the candidature of Ricardo Martinelli being annulled, the former President from 2009- 2014 was known for generating employment, social spending, and expansion of infrastructure. His plans would be a continuation of policies of his previous term[vii],including on illegal mining, anti-corruption, and expansion of public transportation[viii]. Martin Torijjos, who was president from 2004-2009 is known for expanding the Panama Canal and anti-poverty programs. As a candidate, his campaign revolves around reducing spending, and looking for better access to water, sanitation, and health centres.
Romulo Roux’s campaign involves subsidising medicines and healthcare in addition to improving security. He has also mentioned proposed reductions in taxes and reforming social security measures including building its reserves. Ricardo Lombana is relatively new to the political field and is projecting his anti-corruption credentials. He has adopted a pro-business stance, tougher measures against corruption, and discussed the possibility of constitutional reforms. In addition to improving security, he proposes to enforce environmental and water laws and provide vocational training for citizens.
The Dominican Republic
Elections will take place in the Dominican Republic on the 19th of May 2024 for the post of President, Vice-President, 190 deputies, and 32 senators in the Congress. The electoral system employs a procedure for the Presidential run-off in case no candidate achieves more than 50 percent of the votes polled. Also, incumbent Presidents can seek re-election for a possible consecutive term. So far, the candidates are President Luis Abinader from the conservative Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) while the opposition is led by Leonel Fernández of the conservative Peoples’ Force (FP) and Abel Martínez of the conservative Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). The FP party was founded after splitting from the PLD[ix].
Current President Luis Abinader is from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) who took office in 2020 is campaigning on an anti-corruption platform, strong measures taken against the pandemic, restoring tourism, and achieving economic stability. However, he faces criticisms from the opposition regarding the influx of Haitian refugees and a serious outbreak of dengue which is a recurrent feature in the country. He has maintained his position on continuing the construction of a perimeter along the Dominican Republic-Haiti border[x] for security. In addition, he is focussed on promoting private investments, especially in the tourism sector. The Abinader Presidency promoted closer relations with the United States and criticised left-leaning Latin American countries such as Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba. It criticized Russia in the context of the Ukraine crisis and adopted policies of commercial engagement with China.
Leonel Fernández has served as President for three terms and is campaigning on his credentials as a former President who initiated economic modernisation and improved infrastructure such as the Metro Rail in Santo Domingo. He has called for combatting wealth inequality which continues despite the country registering high growth, improving infrastructure, combatting crime and drug trafficking, and seeking diplomatic solutions to the crisis in Haiti which has an impact on the Dominican Republic.
A former President of the Chamber of Deputies and the Mayor of Santiago de los Caballeros, Abel Martínez is basing his campaign on his administrative experience. The PLD which is the main opposition party commands a sizeable electorate and its agenda focuses on enhancing internal and external security, strict immigration policies, and generating employment for the low-income groups.
Mexico
The elections in Mexico will take place on the 2nd of June 2024 and will be for the President, 128 senators, 500 deputies, and 9 governors of provinces. Since there is no run-off, the candidate achieving the largest portion of votes is elected for a six-year term.
Incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador from the left leaning MORENA[xi] party is ineligible for re-election as per the Constitution; hence former Head of Government of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum will represent the coalition[xii] that includes the Green Party (PVEM) and the Labour Party (PT). The main opposition coalition[xiii] will be led by former Senator, Xóchitl Gálvez which includes the right leaning National Action Party (PAN), the Party of Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
President Obrador’s left-inclined populism known as the Fourth Transformation[xiv] witnessed the implementation of austerity measures, reduction in poverty, improving infrastructure and stringent social policies which benefited a large chunk of the population. However, there are certain concerns raised by the opposition such as the President’s attempts to reform autonomous institutions such as the National Electoral Institute[xv]. Expanding social policies instituted by the Obrador Presidency have not seen similar tax reforms. The government’s funding of state institutions which were facing financial difficulties, strained the economy. Crime and drug trafficking remain a matter of concern with the country registering one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America. The outgoing President has called to vote on certain reforms that include raising wages and pensions above the inflation level[xvi], addressing water shortages, in addition to financial support for the agriculture sector. Some constitutional reforms[xvii] have also been proposed which are reducing the strength of the Congress, election of judges by direct vote, and limiting spending for political campaigns[xviii].
Foreign policy during his tenure exhibited cooperation as well as friction[xix] with the United States, particularly in the fields of economy and migration. Mexico’s participation in the North American Leaders’ Summit and the resurgence of the High-Level Economic Dialogue enabled institutionalization of economic cooperation. In the wake of the growing divide between the United States and China, Mexico has gained in terms of nearshoring and manufacturing and emerging as the largest trade partner of the United States, thus maximizing its economic opportunities. However, the divergences over the energy and electricity sectors and climate issues were visible. Regarding migration and security, the launch of the US-Mexico Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities was a complete departure from the Mérida Initiative[xx] which stresses protecting people rather than taking punitive action. Issues related to migration remain a point of friction as much as drug trafficking. Relationship with China has seen trade expand and more Chinese investments in transportation and energy sectors, which includes the Tren Maya and the purchase of the Zuma Energía, a renewable energy firm[xxi]. Both countries have continued cooperation in addressing the illicit manufacture and supply of fentanyl[xxii] which has caused serious addiction in Mexico and the United States.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s campaign revolves around her proximity to President Obrador as well as her administrative experience. Apart from her strong ideological commitment towards the MORENA party, the current coalition has a wider base than others which will provide electoral advantages. Some of the proposals laid out involve continuing with President Obrador’s austerity measures and expanding social services, a gradual transition towards renewable energy, promoting infrastructure development[xxiii], and inviting Foreign Direct Investments in critical sectors.
Xochitl Gálvez from the opposing coalition has levelled criticism of President Obrador’s administration on the grounds of failing to reduce crime, and erosion of autonomous institutions. Her agenda for the election involves, raising taxes to augment the budget, opening the energy sector to foreign investments, and hastening the transition towards renewable energy. She has also promised to defend autonomous institutes and reduce crime by strengthening local and state police and by respecting the rule of law. Additionally, she has proposed welfare programs for the middle and lower-middle-income groups as a part of a universal social protection system.
Uruguay
Elections will be held in Uruguay on the 27th of October 2024 for the President, Vice-President, 30 senators, and 99 representatives. The electoral system has a provision for a run-off in case no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round. Presidential Primaries will be held on the 30th of June to determine the final list of candidates.
Incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou from the National Party (PN) cannot seek re-election due to constitutional provisions that prohibit it. The right leaning ruling coalition comprises the National Party, Colorado Party (PC), Open Cabildo (CA), Independent Party (PI), and the Party of the People (PG). The main opposition is led by a conglomeration of left-leaning political parties known as the Frente Amplio (FA). From the Frente Amplio Intendant of Montevideo Carolina Cosse, and Intendant of Canelones Yamandú Orsi are the two probable candidates[xxiv].
From the ruling coalition, the probable candidates are former Secretary of the Presidency Álvaro Delgado (PN), Laura Roffo (PN), and Senator Guido Manini Ríos (CA). In recent times, there has been noticeable friction within the ruling coalition between the National Party and the Open Cabildo over political issues.
Uruguay, known for its political stability and economic progress, is being tested on the grounds of fractured alliances and issues related to governance[xxv]. The current government which was elected in 2019[xxvi] is facing challenges on the grounds of rising crime, and inability to address drought. The country faces acute water shortages which is considered a public good[xxvii], and the difficulties faced by the current administration[xxviii] to address the worsening situation have turned it into a key election issue. Crime is another issue with increasing homicide rates along with drug trafficking, even though security was a key theme for the current administration[xxix]. President Pou’s administration has been critical of the governments of Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba and withdrew from the UNASUR, and has also criticised Russia in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. He expressed intent to continue trade negotiations with China outside the ambit of the Mercosur and explored possibilities of doing the same with other Asia-Pacific countries, to diversify Uruguay’s external relations.
Despite problems, President Lacalle Pou’s administration boasts of popular pension and educational reforms, macroeconomic stability, and a robust welfare state. From the ruling coalition, Álvaro Delgado’s plans include greater trade liberalisation, continuing with discussions on trade with China, and innovation in science and technology to boost employment. Laura Roffo has proposed lower the costs of living, addressing the water crisis, and modernising infrastructure[xxx]. The Frente Amplio candidates such as Carolina Cosse and Yamandú Orsi have spoken about the possibility of addressing the water and environmental crisis, tax reforms, and encouraging investments in medium and small-scale industries in addition to addressing rising crime.
Venezuela
Elections in Venezuela are proposed to be held by the end of 2024 although no official dates have been announced. The government under President Nicolás Maduro in an agreement[xxxi] with the opposition agreed to hold elections, while the Biden administration relaxed some economic sanctions till April 2024. The agreement included free and fair elections in the presence of international observers lifting candidacy bans and allowing freedom of campaign[xxxii]. President Maduro will certainly run for office as the official candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and from the coalition known as the Simón Bolivar Great Patriotic Pole which consists of other left-leaning parties. The opposition[xxxiii] is led by former lawmaker María Corina Machado representing the party Vente Venezuela and from the right leaning Unitary Platform coalition after she won the primaries in October 2023. The Supreme Justice Tribunal has however upheld a judgement banning her from contesting in the proposed elections causing friction between the government and the opposition[xxxiv].
Venezuela faces an economic crisis owing to reduced oil production and international sanctions that have led to unprecedented inflation affecting vast sections of the population, resulting in many emigrating. The administration under President Maduro has maintained proximity to Nicaragua and Cuba in Latin America, and with others such as China, Russia, and Iran on the global stage keeping in alignment with its ideological and economic preferences. Although the easing of some sanctions did provide some relief, political chaos, and economic distress would continue if holding elections remains uncertain.
El Salvador
Elections were held on the 4th of February with incumbent President Nayib Bukele representing his conservative oriented party New Ideas (NI) retaining power and winning 84 percent of the popular vote. The opposition was led by Manuel Flores of the left leaning Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and Joel Sánchez of the right leaning Nationalist Republic Alliance (ARENA). A major controversy arose during the period of campaign regarding the candidature of President Bukele. Although the Constitution prohibited re-election of an incumbent president, a 2021 verdict from the country’s Supreme Court overturned it, hence he was eligible for re-election. Opposition parties protested against the ruling and raised issues of corruption, violation of human rights and undermining autonomous bodies. Despite criticisms, President Bukele’s certain economic and security measures in reducing crime and criminal gangs were highly popular.
Conclusion
The upcoming elections in Latin America signal a shift towards voter preference for improved governance as against ideology. Ideological grounds will recede as political parties debate on addressing basic domestic concerns which also means a marginal role for foreign policy in the elections. Even though the region is gradually recovering from the pandemic, proposals to address the most pressing concerns such as economic welfare, rising crime, climate change, and corruption will be decisive in the elections. The governments in Mexico and the Dominican Republic may see incumbents retaining power owing to economic stability, although crime, drug trafficking, and energy transition in Mexico and the Haitian refugee crisis along with health and sanitation in the Dominican Republic will be among the significant issues in the elections. In countries such as Panama and Uruguay, the elections will be closely contested with issues such as climate change and mining contracts playing a key role in Panama while a fractured ruling coalition and water security will be the key issues in Uruguay. While the proposed elections in Venezuela are mired in uncertainty, if held it could be decisive with the potency of altering the political and economic landscape.
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*Dr. Arnab Chakrabarty, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
[i] Vallecillos, Milagro (29th January 2024). ¿Quiénes son los candidatos a la presidencia de Panamá? Voz de América, Accessed 10th February 2024. https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/qui%C3%A9nes-son-los-candidatos-a-la-presidencia-de-panama/7458567.html.
[ii] Harrison, Chase et.al. (4th January 2024). 2024 Elections in Latin America: A Preview, AS/COA, Accessed 9th February 2024. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2024-elections-latin-america-preview?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block.
[iii] Panama’s Supreme Court in November 2023 declared a contract with Canadian mining company, First Quantum and the government null and void. The company was involved in mining at the Cobre Panama mine. Even though the mine offered much-needed revenue, environmental concerns in addition to an unequal contract were key arguments against the company.
[iv] Runde, Daniel & Doring, Amy (21st May 2024). Key Decision Point Coming for the Panama Canal, CSIS, Accessed 12th February 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/key-decision-point-coming-panama-canal.
[v] Evan Ellis (27th April 2023). Panama’s popular discontentment is still simmering, WPR, Accessed 11th February 2024. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://revanellis.com/Panamas%20Popular%20Discontent%20is%20Still%20Simmering%20-%20R%20Evan%20Ellis.pdf.
[vi] Brown, Rich (4th January 2024). Meet the Candidates: Panama, Americas Quarterly, Accessed 13th February 2024. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-panama-2/.
[vii] Ricardo Martinelli was the President of Panama from 2009 till 2014.
[viii] Sanchez, Albis. (4th February 2024). Elecciones 2024: Perfil de los candidatos presidenciales, ECO, Accessed 11th February 2024. https://www.ecotvpanama.com/voto-24/elecciones-2024-perfil-los-candidatos-presidenciales-n5962827.
[ix] Sweigart, Emilie (4th January 2024). Meet the Candidates: Dominican Republic, Americas Quarterly, Accessed 12th February. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-dominican-republic/.
[x] Reuters (21st February 2022). Dominican Republic begins building border wall with Haiti, Reuters, Accessed 11th February 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/dominican-republic-begins-building-border-wall-with-haiti-2022-02-20/
[xi] Also known as the National Regeneration Movement, Movimiento Regeneración Nacional.
[xii] The ruling coalition is known as Let’s Keep Making History, Sigamos Haciendo Historia.
[xiii] Previously this coalition was known as the Broad Front for Mexico, Frente Amplio por Mexico, and now it is known as Strength and Heart for Mexico, Fuerza y Corazon Por Mexico.
[xiv] The Fourth Transformation (Cuarta Transformación) popularized by President Obrador at the beginning of his term in 2018 to do away with financial privileges enjoyed by certain sections of the society, such as high-ranking government officials, and institute measures of austerity.
[xv] President Obrador has pushed for reforms in the National Electoral Institute (INE) since assuming office in 2018. However, the opposition alleges malpractices and disregard for the autonomy of the institution. Recently, there were protests in the capital city against the proposed reforms.
[xvi] Magos, Alejandro (26 January 2024). AMLO’s Grip: Mexico’s Future at Stake, Wilson Center, Accessed 16th February 2024. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/amlos-grip-mexicos-future-stake.
[xvii] Hecimovich, J. Polga (27th November 2023). Mexico takes stock of five years of AMLO, GIS, Accessed 16th February 2024. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/mexico-amlo-five/.
[xviii] Glendon, Sarah (19th January 2024). Mexico’s 2024 election outlook: Lessons from the Latin American region, Columbia Threadneedle, Accessed 14th February 2024. https://www.columbiathreadneedle.co.uk/en/intm/insights/mexicos-2024-election-outlook-lessons-from-the-latin-american-region/.
[xix] Berg, Ryan (8th September 2023). Why the US-Mexico Relationship could get even worse, Foreign Policy, Accessed 15th February 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/08/us-mexico-border-gop-republican-primary-amlo-election-drug-cartel-trade/.
[xx] Wood, Duncan& Helfgott, Alexandra (24th January 2022). Seeking Process and Predictability: An Evaluation of US-Mexico Relations under President Biden, Wilson Center, Accessed 15th February 2024. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/seeking-process-and-predictability-evaluation-us-mexico-relations-under-president-biden.
[xxi] Ortiz, Roman (25th January 2021). Mexico, China & the US: A Changing Dynamic, Americas Quarterly, Accessed 14th February. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/mexico-china-the-us-a-changing-dynamic/.
[xxii] Fentanyl is an opioid drug that is trafficked into the US by drug cartels along the US-Mexico border leading to deaths and other social issues. While Mexican drug cartels enhance them, the main source of fentanyl is China. The problem has often led to friction between the US and Mexico, while discussions revolve among these two countries and China to counter it.[xxiv] Hein, Tara (4th January 2024). Meet the Candidates: Uruguay, Americas Quarterly, Accessed 11th February 2024. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-uruguay-2/.
[xxv] Zylm, Wojciech ( 29th October 2023). Uruguay’s Governing Coalitions: A Fractured Alliance in the face of 2024 Elections, The People’s Network, Accessed 11th February 2024. https://bnnbreaking.com/politics/uruguays-governing-coalition-a-fractured-alliance-in-the-face-of-2024-elections/.
[xxvi] Since 2005 the Frente Amplio had been forming the government in Uruguay, and it was in 2019 that the conservative coalition led by the PN won, thus ending the 15-year-old winning streak.
[xxvii] In 2004 a referendum was held in Uruguay which led to a constitutional amendment and turned water into a public good, thus preventing its privatisation.
[xxviii] The current administration invested in the 250 million Dollar Neptuno water treatment project to supply potable water and thus address scarcity. However, the said project was met with criticisms by the opposition and other groups on the basis that it would lead to
[xxix] Bello, A.Caso (23rd January 2024). Is Uruguay Changing too Slowly? Americas Quarterly. Accessed 12th February. https://americasquarterly.org/article/is-uruguay-changing-too-slowly/.
[xxxi] The Partial Agreement on the Promotion of Political Rights and Electoral Guarantees for All or the Barbados Agreement was signed between the Venezuelan government and the opposition (Unitary Platform) in October 2023, aiming to conduct free and fair elections, release political prisoners, and ease certain sanctions.
[xxxii] France 24 (6th January 2024). Venezuela enters uncertain election year, Accessed 17th February 2024. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240106-venezuela-enters-uncertain-election-year.
[xxxiii] Apart from María Corina Machado, many other candidates have expressed their intent to run for office. Notably, the Democratic Alliance which is made up of various conservative parties is yet to decide on an official candidate.
[xxxiv] Arrioja, J. Enrique (4th January 2024). Meet the Candidates: Venezuela, Americas Quarterly, Accessed 17th February 2024. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-venezuela/.