Indian Council of World Affairs

In recent months, there have been increasing China-Philippines skirmishes over the Second Thomas Shoal (Ren’ai in Chinese and Ayungin in the Philippines) in the South China Sea region. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative defines the Second Thomas Shoal as a submerged reef situated in the Spratly Islands (Nansha in Chinese). The US has also reiterated that under Article IV of the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty, the US will come to the Philippines’ aid in case of an attack. This has added to the US-China contestation in the region. The tensions have, in turn, drawn the attention of other countries in the region, thereby making the security situation volatile. The paper aims to examine the issue and analyse the subsequent developments in the region. 

Background 

The genesis of the escalating tensions can be traced back to the Mischief Reef incident. In 1995, Chinese forces occupied the Mischief Reef claimed by the Philippines. It is 200 km away from the Palawan province of the Philippines. China has deployed military assets on the Mischief Reef. Subsequently, in 1999, the Philippines Navy sailed its tank-landing ship BRP Sierra Madre to the Second Thomas Shoal, on the pretext that the bottom of the ship was leaking and it had to land on the reef.[i] Since then the Philippines has maintained a contingent of marines on the Shoal. [ii] The Second Thomas Shoal has economic and strategic significance. It is rich in marine biodiversity and has rich fishing grounds. It is apt for monitoring and controlling aerial and naval movement in the vicinity. It is also suitable for military operations.[iii]   

Source: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/china-and-philippines-standoff-over-second-thomas-shoal

China and the Philippines Row on the Second Thomas Shoal 

China claims almost 90 per cent of the South China Sea including the Second Thomas Shoal. 

Recently, China has been extremely aggressive toward the Philippines and interfering in the activities of the Second Thomas Shoal. Reportedly, China has been obstructing the movement of the Philippine vessels in the region. On 5 August 2023, China drove away the Philippine vessels carrying building materials by using water cannons. Again, on 22 August 2023, the Chinese Coast Guard vessels encroached into waters near the Shoal.[iv] China’s Ministry of Defence, explained, “The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels lawfully intercepted and had taken warning enforcement measures against the Philippines’ illegal transportation of construction supplies to China’s Second Thomas Shoal.” He also said, “In the face of ineffective warnings through multiple verbal communications, water cannons were used as a means to avoid confrontation and collision.” [v] In September 2023, China installed a 300m floating barrier in the EEZ of the Philippines.[vi] The Philippines National Task Force for the West Philippines Sea ordered the removal of the barrier with immediate effect.[vii]  On 10 December 2023, China used water cannons to obstruct three of the Philippine vessels.  This time, the head of the Philippine military was onboard in one of the boats when the ship was blasted with the water cannon. Reportedly, the Philippines authority said that the CCG and maritime militia “harassed, blocked and executed dangerous manoeuvres on the Philippine civilian supply vessels in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission” to the Second Thomas Shoal.[viii] Such incidents are becoming rampant in the region. It may be noted that by 7 November 2023, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs had filed 58 diplomatic protests against Beijing.[ix]

The Philippines claims the region on the doctrine of Res nullius (undiscovered territory) and its geographical location within the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). For the Philippines, abandoning the ship would mean retreat. It is a “symbol of the Philippines Sovereignty”.  They claim the northeastern section of the Spratly Islands and its Scarborough Shoal.[x]  In 2008, the Philippines has already discovered oil in the Nido oil field, off the coast of Palawan Island.  

Geopolitics of the Second Thomas Shoal 

In 2009, China issued a map which claims almost all of the South China Sea, including features and waters within it under Chinese sovereignty. Amid the 2012 standoff between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines took the issue to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, at the Hague. On 12 July 2016, the tribunal gave the ruling that China has “no legal basis” on the contested waters. China rejected the ruling and has been building islands by reclaiming land in the disputed waters. In another attempt of cartographical aggression, in August 2023, China released an updated version of its official territorial map, which includes an extra dash added to the previous nine-dash line. The new “ten-dash” map includes the island of Taiwan and most of the Spratly Islands besides other distortions. There have been strong protests by India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan on the new map. The Philippines said that China should “act responsibly and abide by its obligations under UNCLOS and the final and binding 2016 Arbitral Award”. 

The incidents near the Shoal have made the region volatile. It has also become a source of the US-China rivalry. Earlier, on 2 February 2023, Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin III announced that American troops would temporarily return to four new military bases in the Philippines. These bases are located on the island of Luzon in the north and Palawan in the west. Austin clarified that this is not about permanent basing but is still a significant development. Moreover, the US-Philippines Defence Agreement of 1951 was updated in May 2023.[xi] The two countries issued new bilateral defence guidelines that explain under which circumstances the US forces would assist the Philippines. This updated Agreement shows a shift in the US’s policy in the South China Sea from “scrupulous non-involvement” to more focused deterrence.[xii] 

The tensions of the region are echoing in other parts of the world also. Germany has offered to mediate in the dispute if necessary. Annalena Baerbock, Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany, met the Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and offered to help in de-escalating tensions between China and the Philippines. They also stressed that it was vital to set up a mechanism to resolve the dispute peacefully and foster dialogue.[xiii] The issue was discussed at the Trilateral Indo-Pacific Dialogue of the US, Japan and the Republic of Korea held on 5 January 2024, where the three countries expressed concern over the escalating behaviour of China in the South China Sea. The developments have further led to a series of naval exercises by the Philippines, the US and China in the region. In January 2024, the US and the Philippines Navy concluded joint drills in the South China Sea. Reportedly, the Chinese ships were shadowing the joint patrol. Soon after, on 4 January 2024, China began a new military exercise in the region and the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command called it a “routine” exercise.[xiv]

While the ongoing negotiations between China and ASEAN regarding a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea are delayed, the Philippines is also trying to negotiate a separate Code of Conduct with neighbouring countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam. President Marcos said the situation in the region is now “more dire” and the Philippines will have to partner with allies and neighbours to maintain peace in the region.[xv]  China is critical of the Philippines’ attempts and said that the Philippines should not become an “offbeat case” and that any separate “code” without China is unlikely to have recognition from ASEAN countries.[xvi]

In light of the developments taking place vis-a-vis the Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippines is trying hard to defend its sovereignty. In an interview with NHK, President Marcos said “The US has been helping the Philippines conduct sea patrol; the situation of the Sierra Madre is a problem that Filipinos aim to address themselves”.[xvii]  Eventually, the Philippines has decided to build a structure. The Philippines Congress has allocated an additional defence budget of around USD 110 million. The Coast Guard will get USD 50 million, the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) will get USD 17 million, and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources will get USD 8 million.[xviii] However, the Chinese spokesperson Mao has warned the Philippines about any construction at the Shoal; she said it would be “another major move to go back on its words, change its policy, and undermine the uninhabited and facility-free status.”[xix] A military expert of China, Song Zhongping has also reiterated the sentiment, if the Philippines builds infrastructure on the Shoal “tensions will surely escalate further and China will take more measures in deterring the Philippines’ attempts”.[xx] As an effort to control the situation, on 17 January 2024, a consultative meeting was held in Shanghai.  Senior officials from both sides participated in the meeting and it was agreed to “further improve maritime communication…. especially manage the situation at Ren’ai Reef”. [xxi]

Conclusion

Chinese President Xi Jinping is focussing on maritime security. This is evident from the recent appointments in China. Xi Jinping has announced a former Naval Chief, Admiral Dong Jun, as the next Defence Minister. It is for the first time a naval officer will be appointed as the defence minister. He has also appointed a new Chief for the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The developments in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait are important for China. In addition, China is greatly interested in the Second Thomas Shoal because it would add to its proximity to the Chinese base at Mischief Reef. 

China and the Philippines relations are once again becoming tense. The geostrategic position of the Philippines is very critical as it is located in the first island chain. If the Philippines builds a permanent structure on the Shoal, there may be a confrontation in the region. In the absence of a Code of Conduct, this may in turn affect the regional stability in the South China Sea. Given the volatility of the region, a single miscalculation could lead to a big disorder.

*****

*Dr. Teshu Singh, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.

End Notes

[i] Chen Xiangmiao, History and Reality of Entanglement between China and the Philippines in Second Thomas Shoal, SCSPI, http://www.scspi.org/en/dtfx/history-and-reality-entanglement-between-china-and-philippines-second-thomas-shoal (Accessed on 17 December 2023).   

[ii] Second Thomas Shoal, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, https://amti.csis.org/second-thomas-shoal/ (Accessed on 15 December 2023).   

[iii] Chaarvi Modi, Statecraft Explains | What is the China-Philippines Dispute over the Scarborough Shoal?, Statecraft, https://www.statecraft.co.in/article/statecraft-explains-what-is-the-china-philippines-dispute-over-the-scarborough-shoal (Accessed on 15 December 2023).   

[iv] China Coast Guard warns trespassing Philippine vessels off Ren’ai Jiao, allows humanitarian supply, Global Times, 22 August 2023, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296738.shtml (Accessed on 15 December 2023).   

[v] Dong Zhaohui, China Coast Guard warns trespassing Philippine vessels off Ren'ai Jiao, China Military,

9 September 2023, http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/Other/News_209166/16250876.html (Accessed on 14 December 2023).   

[vi] Franco Jose C. Baroña, China Coast Guard installs floating barrier in Bajo de Masinloc, the Manila Times,  24 September 2023, https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/09/24/news/china-coast-guard-installs-floating-barrier-in-bajo-de-masinloc/1911561 (Accessed on 14 December 2023).    

[vii] Philippine Divers Cut China's Floating Barrier at Scarborough Shoal, the Maritime Executive, 26 September 2023, https://maritime-executive.com/article/philippine-divers-cut-off-china-s-floating-barrier-at-disputed-reef

(Accessed on 14 December 2023).    

[viii] Agnes Chang and Hannah Beech, Fleets of Force,  The New York Times, 16 November 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/16/world/asia/south-china-sea-ships.html?searchResultPosition=1 (Accessed on 14 December 2023).   

[ix] Ramon Royandoyan, Marcos tells Xi: 'I do not think anybody wants to go to war', Nikkie Asia, 18 November 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/APEC/Marcos-tells-Xi-I-do-not-think-anybody-wants-to-go-to-war (Accessed on 11 January 2024).

[x] Philippines, https://www.nbr.org/publication/philippines/ (Accessed on 20 December 2023).   

[xi]  Kathrin Hille in Taipei, Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Kana Inagaki in Tokyo, Philippines grants US access to four military bases, Financial Times, 2 February 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/a82c85ff-4e00-499f-8fde-214988660cab (Accessed on 11 December 2023).    

[xii]  Felix K Chang, America and the Philippines Update Defence Guidelines, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 24 May 2023, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/america-and-the-philippines-update-defense-guidelines/ (Accessed on 18 December 2023).    

[xiii] Jim Gomez, Germany ready to help de-escalate tensions in disputed South China Sea, its foreign minister says, The Washington Post, 11 January 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/11/germany-philippines-annalena-baerbock/a5c6b9cc-b076-11ee-9a32-5c9e6aa28b3b_story.html  (Accessed on 12 January 2024).    

[xiv] Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan, PLA holds naval, air patrols in S.China Sea amid provocations, Global Times, 4 January 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1304797.shtml (Accessed on 11 January 2024).    

[xv] Neil Jerome Morales and Karen Lema, Philippines woos neighbours to craft code on the South China Sea, Reuters, 20 November 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-eyes-codes-conduct-keep-peace-south-china-sea-2023-11-20/ (Accessed on 14 December 2023).    

[xvi] Hopefully Philippines doesn’t become ‘offbeat case’ in S.China Sea region, Global Times, 10 January 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305138.shtml (Accessed on 11 January 2024).    

[xvii] Alexis Romero, Marcos: BRP Sierra Madre purely a Philippines concern, The Philippine Star, 26 December 2023, https://qa.philstar.com/headlines/2023/12/26/2321395/marcos-brp-sierra-madre-purely-philippines-concern (Accessed on 30 December 2023).    

[xviii] Philippines Budgets for a Permanent Base at Second Thomas Shoal, The Maritime Executive, 17 December 2023, https://maritime-executive.com/article/philippines-budgets-for-a-permanent-structure-at-second-thomas-shoal#:~:text=Back%20in%20August%2C%20Senator%20Chiz,in%20times%20of%20bad%20weather (Accessed on 30 December 2023).    

[xix] Philippines plans to build a structure at Ayungin Shoal but China reiterates its claim over the area and opposes the idea, The Star, 30 December 2023

 https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2023/12/30/philippines-plans-to-build-structure-at-ayungin-shoal-but-china-reiterates-claim-over-area-and-opposes-the-idea (Accessed on 30 December 2023).    

[xx] Liu Xuanzun, Experts urge Philippines to remain restrained after longest pause of provocation in South China Sea, Global Times, 16 January 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305419.shtml (Accessed on 16 January 2024) 

[xxi] Laura Zhou, South China Sea: Beijing, Manila agree to manage differences ‘to better deal with urgent situations’, South China Morning Post, 18 January 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3248877/south-china-sea-shanghai-meeting-china-and-philippines-agree-communicate-and-manage-differences  (Accessed on 23 January 2024).