The ongoing Hamas-Israel War that started on October 7, 2023, has impacted the geopolitics of the West Asia region. The fragile status quo in the West Asia region came into existence after the signing of the Abraham Accords and the breakthrough of the Saudi Arabia and Iran deal has been seemingly undermined by the Hamas-Israel War. The focus of the world community has shifted from the emerging “balance of power” in the region following the aftermath of the normalization process to a greater geopolitical polarization that poses a threat to the region’s security, political stability, and economic progress. The division is between those who have support for Hamas and those who endorse Israel’s right to self-defense against Hamas’ attacks. The former grouping is comprised of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Southern Lebanon, and Yemen, while the latter is comprised of Western countries, including the US. In this context, the pro-Hamas axis led by Iran is using its proxies in Syria and Iraq to counter the American military and strategic interests due to its material and military support to Israel, leading to the counter-attacks by the US on Iran’s proxies. In addition, some countries in the region, such as Egypt and Jordan, are staying neutral and would like to resolve the conflict peacefully. The paper aims to identify the implications of the fallout of the Hamas-Israel War on the West Asia region.
Iran-backed ‘Axis of Resistance’ in Iraq and Syria
Iran is backing Hamas against Israel and accusing the US of supporting what it calls Israeli crimes in Gaza. Groups backed by Iran in Syria and Iraq are active in countering the US.[i] Since the outbreak of the Gaza War, pro-Iranian groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al Nujaba, which are the paramilitary group in Iraq, launched drone attacks on US military facilities in Al-Assad Airbase and Al-Tanf Garrison (Syria), US Airbase in Erbil, and Al-Harir Airbase (Iraq). The US military forces carried out multiple airstrikes to counter these militant groups in the region. On December 27, 2023, the US military forces carried out multiple airstrikes on Kataib Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) members in Iraq and Syria.[ii] One of the prominent IRGC members, Razi Mousavi, head of the “Resistance Front” in Syria, was killed in the airstrike. Another attack was conducted on January 4, 2024, when US forces killed the Harakat al-Nujaba’s senior leader, Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi, responsible for orchestrating attacks against the US forces.
Iran’s support to Hamas is not due to its commitment to the Palestinian cause. For Iran, the Palestinian cause is a platform to protect and advance its national interests. Israel has allegedly been involved in clandestine activities in assassinating and killing the prominent members of Iran-backed militias and IRGC members in Syria, while Iran has been backing Yemen’s Houthis in the Red Sea to target shipments of several countries, including Israel. Recently, Iran witnessed deadly bomb blasts in its Kerman city that killed more than 100 people on the death anniversary of the former in-charge of the Quds Force of Iran’s IRGC, Qassem Soleimani, on January 3, 2024. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi blamed the Israeli government for the explosions. Through the Telegram channel on January 4, an Afghan Branch of Islamic State had taken the responsibility for the blasts.[iii] The bomb blasts in Iran further increased the geopolitical tension in the West Asia region. However, a confrontation seems unlikely.
Lebanon is also on the brink of war with Israel. Southern Lebanon is under the control of Iran-backed Hezbollah. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas War, there have been fears of conflict spreading across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Israel and Hezbollah followed tacit rules of engagement since the Hamas-Israel War unfolded. The targeted killing of Hamas Deputy Saleh al-Arouri in a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut increased the risk of war between the two countries.[iv] The attack on al-Arouri blew apart the implicit restraints between the two sworn enemies.
Israel’s Self-Defense Coalition
Israel has been consistently receiving of military and material support from Western countries, including the US. The US had accelerated the arms transfers to Israel in response to Hamas’ attack that killed more than 1200 Israeli citizens. President Joe Biden’s administration announced that he would seek “an unprecedented support package for Israel’s defense” of $14.3 billion.[v] US had also sent the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to project its military strength. Besides, Israel has received about $3 billion annually from the US for the last 50 years. US military aid to Israel is “security assistance” and a “one-way commitment,” with no expectations of financial compensation from the other side.[vi]
Apart from the military and material support to Israel, the US is engaging with countries in the region. Since the war broke out, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has so far visited the West Asia region five times.[vii] Blinken visited Turkiye, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with a mission that the Israel-Hamas War does not spread into a regional conflict.
European countries are one of Israel’s main suppliers of military systems and equipment after the US. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) provided data on arms sales from Europe to Israel between 2021-2022, showing Italy and Germany have supplied Israel’s military with crucial weapons and equipment it has been using on the ground in Gaza. According to Campaign against the Arms Trade, the UK is also supplying military equipment to Israel, particularly to strengthen its Air Force.[viii] Besides, the European Union had announced the 18 Million Euro funding plan entitled “Regional EU-Israel cooperation in support of the Abraham Accords, and fight against anti-semitism and fostering Jewish life.”[ix]
Role of Neutral Countries
Jordan had beefed up its security forces along its borders with Israel following the Hamas-Israel War. Its Prime Minister, Bisher Khasawneh, stated that his country would resort to “all the means in its power” to prevent Israel from implementing any transfer policy to expel Palestinians en masse from the West Bank. Jordan is already home to a large population of Palestinian refugees and their descendants.[x] The hardline ultra-nationalist section in Israel has long espoused that the transfer of the Palestinian population to Jordan is a solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Jordan had recalled its Ambassador from Israel due to the ongoing war and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
In addition, Jordan had also taken measures to counter the Iran-backed militants to enter its territory. On January 4, 2024, the Jordan Air Force conducted an airstrike inside Syria against suspected warehouses and hideouts of Iran-backed drug smugglers. The army had stepped up a campaign against drug dealers after protracted clashes with dozens of infiltrators from Syria linked to pro-Iranian militias.[xi] Washington has provided about $1 billion in military aid to Jordan to establish a border post since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.
Egypt has also taken the lead in mediating between Hamas and Israel to resolve the conflict through peaceful means. The Egyptian government is interested in ending the ongoing war through peaceful measures because it bears the direct ‘spillover’ effects of the conflict and violence that is brewing at its borders with Gaza. However, the initiative has not accrued any positive results till now.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, the Hamas-Israel War has intensified the geopolitical tensions in the region. The longer the war in Gaza plays out, the greater the potential for wider consequences well beyond the Israel or Palestinian borders. The continuation of Israel’s operations in Gaza increases the prospects of the more extensive involvement of the regional actors that pose a threat to the geopolitical stability in the region. The war has suspended the normalization process between the Arab States and Israel and increased the chances of violent conflict through proxy wars. Terror groups and piracy are getting activated in the region, taking advantage of the tense atmospherics. Besides, the war has increased the scope for China and Russia to increase their diplomatic maneuver in the region due to their support of Palestine statehood and the growing disenchantment of the Arabs against Western countries, including the US. West Asia conflict has global implications and, taken together with the Ukraine War and tensions in the Indo-Pacific, makes for a volatile mix threatening global peace and security.
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*Dr. Arshad, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
Endnotes
[i] “Troops hurt after three drones attack US bases in Iraq as tensions flare after Gaza hospital blast,” Associated Press, October 19, 2023, accessed https://apnews.com/article/iraq-militias-iran-us-base-attack-drone-hamas-israel-war-80f6739c3ab34662afba316285914e39, January 5, 2024
[ii] “US carries out airstrikes against militants in Iraq following attack on air base,” abc7ny.com, December 27, 2023, accessed https://abc7ny.com/us-carries-out-airstrikes-against-militants-in-iraq-following-attac/14226766/, January 5, 2024
[iii] “Blasts kill nearly 100 at slain IRGC commander Soleimani’s memorial, Iran vows revenge,” Arab News, January 3, 2024, accessed https://www.arabnews.com/node/2435671/middle-east, January 5, 2024.
[iv] “Retaliate or not? Hezbollah faces conundrum after Israel kills Hamas deputy in Lebanon,” France 24, January 3, 2024, accessed https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240103-retaliate-or-not-hezbollah-s-conundrum-after-israel-kills-hamas-deputy-in-lebanon, January 5, 2024
[v] “Most of Israel’s weapons imports come from the US. Now Biden is rushing even more arms,” Vox News, November 18, 2023, accessed https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/11/18/23966137/us-weapons-israel-biden-package-explained, January 5, 2024
[vi] “US military support to Israel: What and How? Anadolu Agency, October 26, 2023, accessed https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-military-support-to-israel-what-and-how/3033589, January 5, 2024
[vii] “Antony Blinken: On the US mission to stop Gaza igniting wider war,” BBC.Com, January 9, 2023, accessed https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67911825, January 10, 2023.
[viii] “Europe aiding and assisting Israel’s war in Gaza with key weapons,” Euro News, November 6, 2023, accessed https://www.euronews.com/2023/11/03/europe-aiding-and-assisting-israels-war-in-gaza-with-vital-weapons, January 5, 2024
[ix] “Why EU’s 18 Million Euro for Israel undermines peace,” Euro Observer, December 4, 2023, accessed https://euobserver.com/opinion/157767, January 5, 2024.
[x] “Jordan says it beefs up army presence along borders with Israel,” Reuters, November 22, 2023, accessed https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordan-says-it-beefs-up-army-presence-along-borders-with-israel-2023-11-21/, January 5, 2024
[xi] “Jordan strikes Iran-linked drug dealers in Syria-intelligence sources,” Reuters, January 5, 2024, accessed https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordan-strikes-iran-linked-drug-dealers-syria-intelligence-sources-2024-01-04/, January 5, 2024