On the 3rd of December, Venezuelans voted in a National Referendum[i] in favour of the annexation of the disputed Esequiba region, which has been a part of neighbouring Guyana. The 160,000 square kilometres Esequiba region forms around two-thirds of Guyana and is rich in hydrocarbons and other natural resources, which for long has been a point of dispute between the two South American countries.
The referendum had a series of five questions and was organised by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela (CNE) in which 10.5 million votes were polled showing a turnout of 50 percent of the total electorate. According to the CNE, 95 percent of voters overwhelmingly responded in favour of annexing the disputed territory and awarding Venezuelan citizenship to the people in the region. Previously in 2018, Guyana had approached the International Court of Justice concerning the territorial dispute, and on 1st December 2023, the ICJ prohibited any action on the part of Venezuela that would possibly alter the status quo of the region and would make the dispute difficult to resolve.
The referendum drew sharp criticisms from Guyana, and the CARICOM (Caribbean Community), with Guyanese President Irfaan Ali strongly criticising the procedure as a means to bring instability in the region and urging the Venezuela government to respect international law. The CARICOM issued a statement that condemned the referendum and questioned its validity. The Venezuelan government led by President Nicolas Maduro on the other hand congratulated all the citizens who participated in the referendum and hailed it as an extraordinary triumph for Venezuela.
Brazil has intensified its military presence along its northern borders amidst rising tensions between Venezuela and Guyana and has expressed its concerns.
This paper will highlight the background of the dispute and the subsequent implications for the region after the referendum.
Background of the Dispute
The Esequiba region of Guyana has an area of 160,000 square kilometres approximately two-thirds of Guyana and a population of around 125,000 and is rich in natural resources of which there is a significant presence of hydrocarbons[ii] and, minerals such as gold, manganese, bauxite and diamonds. In recent years, the discovery of hydrocarbons in 2015[iii] and the award of exploration rights[iv] by the Guyanese government to international companies have made this region important.
However, while the recent discovery of hydrocarbon reserves is certainly a reason for the current situation, the dispute dates back to colonial times[v]. While Venezuela was a colony of Spain, Guyana was acquired from the Dutch by the British. The British commissioned a geographer Robert Schomburgk in 1835 to demarcate the border between the two colonies. Hence, the Schomburgk line was drawn which created the current national borders. Venezuela, dissatisfied with the Schomburgk line claimed territories west of the Esequiba River and appealed to the United States to arbitrate the dispute in 1876[vi]. The result of the arbitration in 1895[vii] went in favour of the British and the status quo remained unchanged. In 1966, after the independence of Guyana the Geneva Agreement was signed between Venezuela and Guyana to reach an amicable solution to the dispute but to no avail. Since then, the dispute has lingered on, especially over resource exploration rights awarded to multinational corporations by Guyana[viii].
While Venezuela has maintained a position to recover the territory of Esequiba and has often objected to resource exploration and mapping conducted by multinational corporations under the authority of the Guyanese government, it has also refused to recognise the ICJ's jurisdiction over the dispute. President Maduro of Venezuela issued a decree in 2021 claiming 200 nautical miles[ix] of the Orinoco Delta, subsequently, there were incidents of detaining Guyanese fishing vessels, which were strongly condemned by Guyana. Venezuela recognises the tremendous economic opportunities the region may provide not only in terms of hydrocarbon and mineral extraction but also due to its freshwater resources, fishing zones, maritime transit, and tourism. Similarly, Guyana is keen to retain the region as a part of its territory for similar reasons.
Implications for the region
The referendum has led to different reactions in Venezuela and Guyana. President Maduro called the referendum a success for democracy which had seen very high level of participation. Venezuela also rejected the ICJ’s locus standi in the dispute. In contrast, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali urged the Venezuelan government to act according to international law and to seek peaceful solutions to the issue[x]. He also refused to accept the legality of the referendum and promised to protect the integrity of Guyanese territory. Standing by Guyana, the CARICOM[xi] responded in condemnation of the referendum and showed concerns over possibilities of instability and security in the region, and urged the Venezuelan government to respect international law and the jurisdiction of the ICJ[xii]. The Organisation of American States (OAS) rejected the referendum while appealing for a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Although CARICOM has criticised the referendum, Venezuela was a major supplier of fuel to the region under the Petrocaribe initiative, which became defunct due to low production and US sanctions on Venezuela after 2019[xiii]. Caribbean countries that are dependent on oil imports seek its revival to access economically viable fuel supply from Venezuela. In this context, it may be possible that further statements from the CARICOM may be measured to achieve stability and in pursuit of peaceful solution to the dispute.
Post-referendum, and in the current scenario the risk of a full-blown conflict seems unlikely with both parties to the dispute locked only in a diplomatic and politically contested stand-off. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali are holding a discussion concerning the dispute. While both countries have pledged to maintain national sovereignty over the contested territory, the absence of practical military[xiv] manoeuvres highlight hesitancy towards an open conflict. Venezuela, which is struggling economically, faces sanctions from the United States, and desires a larger role in Latin America may eventually opt for dialogue under regional and international mechanisms rather than carrying out military operations. The referendum may however provide, strong political undertones for the current government in Venezuela as the country goes to polls in 2024. In this regard, the role of regional organisations such as the CARICOM and the OAS and the political leadership of neighbouring countries will be critical to defusing any potential conflict.
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*Dr. Arnab Chakrabarty, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Five questions were asked in the referendum which were: 1. Acceptance of the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899 that allowed Guyana to retain the disputed Esequiba province. 2. Support for the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only means to secure an amicable solution to the dispute. 3. Agreement with the Venezuelan government’s position of not recognising the jurisdiction of the ICJ over the dispute. 4. opposition to Guyana’s unilateral claim to dispose of sea pending delimitation and 5. Agreement with the creation of an Esequiba state, comprehensive plan for the region, award of citizenship and identity cards to the population, and annexation of the disputed territory within Venezuela.
[ii] The Esequiba region has an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil reserves. Currently, Guyana is one of Latin America’s largest oil producers and its oil production has tripled since 2021 a large portion of its income comes from oil exports which stands at US $ 1.63 billion per annum and is expected to increase.
[iii] Reuters. (5th December 2023). Guyana will stay alert after Venezuela vote on territorial dispute-VP. Accessed 4th December 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/guyana-will-stay-alert-after-venezuela-vote-territorial-dispute-vp-2023-12-04/.
[iv] The most important oil block is the Stabroek oil block. Since 2015, 46 additional oil discoveries have been made apart from 4 recent discoveries in 2023 which highlights the importance of the region in terms of energy. Multinational companies such as ExxonMobil, CNOOC, and the Hess Corp are active in prospecting and extraction in the region.
[v] Jacqueline Charles & Antonio Maria Delgado. (1st December 2023). Should Venezuela invade its oil-rich neighbour? Maduro will put it to a vote Sunday. Miami Herald. Accessed 4th December 2023. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article282525893.html.
[vi] Rob Garver. (4th December 2023). Venezuela’s Claims on Guyana’s Territory raise Concerns about Conflict. Voice of Americas. Accessed 5th December 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/venezuela-s-claims-on-guyana-s-territory-raise-concerns-about-conflict/7384549.html#:~:text=In%20a%20statement%2C%20it%20said,more%2C%20in%20our%20region.%E2%80%9D.
[vii] Benedetta Piva et.al. (23rd May 2021). Guyana-Venezuela Border Dispute. The Counterterrorism Group. Accessed 4th December 2023. https://www.counterterrorismgroup.com/post/guyana-venezuela-border-dispute.
[viii] El Comercio. (4th December2023). Resultados referendo sobre el Esequibo en Venezuela en vivo, ultima hora de Guyana. Accessed 5th December 2023. https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/venezuela/referendo-sobre-el-esequibo-en-venezuela-en-vivo-guyana-hoy-domingo-3-de-diciembre-del-2023-resultados-quien-gano-el-referendo-sobre-el-esequibo-habra-guerra-entre-venezuela-y-guyana-por-el-esequibo-de-quien-es-el-esequibo-cuales-son-las-5-preguntas-del-referendo-sobre-el-esequibo-nicolas-maduro-cne-noticia/?ref=ecr.
[ix] France 24. (27th October 2023). Guyana greenlights oil drilling in waters claimed by Venezuela. Accessed 4th December 2023, https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231027-guyana-okays-drilling-for-oil-discovered-in-waters-claimed-by-venezuela.
[x] Department of Public Information, Government of Guyana. (3rd December 2023). President Ali urges Venezuelan government to act in the interest of its citizens. Accessed 5th December 2023. https://dpi.gov.gy/president-ali-urges-venezuelan-government-to-act-in-the-interest-of-its-citizens/.
[xi] The Vincentian. (3rd December 2023). CARICOM denounces Venezuela’s Referendum on Guyana. Accessed 4th December 2023. https://thevincentian.com/caricom-denounces-venezuelas-referendum-on-guyana-p27359-149.htm.
[xii] St Kitts & Nevis Observer. (4th December 2023). CARICOM Stands by Guyana over Venezuela Invasion Referendum. Accessed 5th December 2023. https://www.thestkittsnevisobserver.com/caricom-stands-by-guyana-over-venezuela-invasion-referendum/.
[xiii] Americas Quarterly. (15th August 2023). Caribbean Leaders want Petrocaribe back. Could it Happen? Accessed 4th December 2023. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/caribbean-leaders-want-petrocaribe-back-could-it-happen/.
[xiv] In terms of actual military strength, Venezuela outranks Guyana in terms of armed personnel and equipment.