Azerbaijan is consolidating its control over breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region following a short but decisive military operation it undertook in September 2023 to what it termed as an effort to ‘restore constitutional order’ there.[1] The abrupt change in Nagorno-Karabakh caused exodus of Armenians from the territory. By September 2023, over 100,000 ethnic Armenian refugees had fled to Armenia out of fear for their future.[2] Armenia had charged Azerbaijan with inciting a humanitarian crisis and ‘ethnic cleansing’ of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.[3] Currently, South Caucasus appears unstably stable, as hope and despair coexist. There is optimism that the new condition is opening open the door to rapprochement between the two countries, promoting security, regional connectivity and development. The 7 December 2023 Armenia-Azerbaijan joint statement instils hope.
This paper looks for signs of a return to normalcy in the bilateral relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which appear to be backed by national policies, aided by neighbouring countries, and supported by regional connectivity dynamics.
Yerevan-Baku engagement
Although tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan still persists, there are indications that both the countries want to normalise ties. Addressing the European Parliament on 17 October 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his nation intends to sign a peace treaty and begin diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan.[4] He also mentioned that Armenia was ready to end hostilities and guarantee the safety of ethnic Azeris in Armenia.[5]
Azerbaijan on the other hand has also made it clear that it is open to normalizing ties with Armenia. It seeks to settle boundary, maintain peace with Armenia, and re-establish transport connections. Azerbaijan believes that there is no other alternative to normalizing its relations with Armenia.[6] Large scale construction is being done in Nagorno-Karabakh by Baku, including for improved connectivity. Baku also asserts that rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh will be protected.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have revived talks over the delimitation of the shared border. Chaired by Armenian Deputy Prime Minister and his Azerbaijani counterpart the respective border delimitation commissions held their fifth round of talks on 30 November 2023 at Ijevan-Gazakh sector of the border. The two sides discussed demarcation and decided to meet again.
Nagorno-Karabakh
Source: Aljazeera[7]
December breakthrough
In a major development considered as a ‘breakthrough’ towards bilateral engagement, Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a joint statement on 7 December 2023.[8] The joint statement was issued by the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The statement underlines that the two countries ‘share the view’ that there is a ‘historical chance’ to achieve a ‘long-awaited peace’ in the region. They reconfirmed their intention to normalize relations and to reach the ‘peace treaty’ on the basis of ‘respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity’.
As per the statement, the two countries will be taking tangible steps towards building confidence. As goodwill gesture, Azerbaijan will release 32 Armenian military servicemen while Armenia is to release 2 Azeri servicemen. Further, Armenia extends support to the Azerbaijani bid to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, by withdrawing its own candidacy. Correspondingly, Azerbaijan will support the Armenian candidature for Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership[i].
The two countries have also decided to continue their discussions regarding the implementation of further confidence building measures. They also call on the international community to support their efforts that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries and will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region. There could be several factors driving the current rapprochement between the two countries.
First, subsiding protests: The ethnic Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh were supported by Armenia. The separatists had hitherto declared independence and called the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as the Republic of Artsakh, which was recognized by none. After Azerbaijan’s military operation, the separatists agreed to dissolve the administration as of 1 January 2024. It caused anti-government protests in Armenia against its handling of Nagorno-Karabakh. The protests have subsided since. The likelihood of peace in the near future is probably dawning on the Armenian people. Seemingly, recognizing the people’s desire for stability and development, Yerevan wishes normalization of ties with Azerbaijan.
Second, strengthening security: Russia is Armenia’s ally and has military facilities in the country. Armenia continues to have vibrant political, economic and cultural linkages with Russia despite recent disagreements between the two over ways to handle the security situation arising out of Azerbaijan’s military offensive. Armenia is a founding member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) but it skipped the Minsk Summit held on 23 November 2023. However, Armenia as of now is not considering either withdrawal from CSTO or intends to request the departure of Russian military from the country.[9]
Armenia is diversifying its relations and interacting with the US, EU and other powers, including in security spheres. It for the first time Armenia hosted American military personnel for a 10-day joint exercise in September 2023.[10] On request by Yerevan, the EU established the civilian mission in Armenia (EUMA) in February 2023 under the Common Security and Defence Policy.[11] Yerevan has also been acquiring cutting-edge weapons, notably from India and France. These steps are expected to boost confidence of Armenians, discourage Azerbaijani hostility, and assist Armenia in formulating a stronger negotiating position with Azerbaijan.
Third, strategic location: Since September 2023 military operation by Baku, though Armenia is considered to have lost a major leverage vis a vis Azerbaijan with the dissolution of separatist authority in Nagorno-Karabakh, it remains a powerful force in the region. Because of its geopolitical location and strong connections to powerful nations, Yerevan has the ability to impact regional dynamics. However, Yerevan is strengthening its stance in association with partnering countries before taking any concrete steps towards settlement with Azerbaijan.
Fourth, regional facilitators: The talks facilitated by extra-regional powers, including the US and EU, to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem have made little progress. Georgia – a common neighbour of Armenia and Azerbaijan – remaining neutral to the conflict facilitated communication and engagement between the two countries. In June 2021, Tbilisi helped transfer of 15 servicemen back to Armenia from Azerbaijan, while Yerevan handed over minefield maps to Baku. In July 2022, Tbilisi facilitated a meeting between Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijani.[12] President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in his visit to Georgia on 8 October 2023 expressed readiness to ‘instantly’ begin peace talks with Armenia in Georgia provided that Yerevan agrees.[13]
Georgia been organizing the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum since 2015 as a platform for dialogue among policymakers, businesses leaders and experts to discuss challenges, find solutions, and create opportunities for trade and connectivity. The fourth Tbilisi Silk Road Forum was held on 26-27 October 2023 in Tbilisi, attended by over 2,000 participants from 63 countries.[14] Significantly, Prime Ministers of both Armenia and Azerbaijan attended the Forum.
South Caucasus countries and neighbours
Source: The FDFA online[15]
Iran is also a neighbour of both Armenia and Azerbaijan and it has played an important role in facilitating talks between the two countries. Joined by Turkiye and Russia – the other two neighbours of South Caucasia – Iran on 23 October 2023 hosted the first talks between Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan since Baku’s September 2023 military operation and re-integration of Nagorno-Karabakh. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, while meeting the Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, emphasized the importance of the Caucasus region’s security for regional countries and said Tehran “was ready to assist in resolving the existing disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia”.[16] Following the meeting in Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “The conflict has, on the whole, been settled. Both sides agree that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and that was the main issue to be settled.”[17] Seemingly, regionalisation of peace talks has been yielding dividends and giving impetus to improve intra-regional and inter-regional connectivity.
Prospects of stability through connectivity
The South Caucasus region serves as a vital conduit in the Eurasian energy supply network and a major international transportation route. Instability and conflict in South Caucasus affect regional cooperation and international transportation through the area. In order to transform South Caucasus into an inter-regional connectivity hub, regional countries are creating national and regional connectivity links.
(i) Armenia’s ‘Crossroads of Peace’ initiative
On October 26, 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan addressed the Silk Road Forum in Tbilisi, introducing the ‘Crossroads of Peace’ project and its guiding principles. He associated ‘peace’ with open borders, dynamic political, economic, and cultural relationships, and conflict resolution via negotiation and dialogue. He believed that without roads, these could not be accomplished. The Crossroads of Peace project, in his words, is an ‘integral’ component of the peace agenda.
The ‘Crossroads of Peace’ initiative
Source: Public Radio of Armenia[18]
Developing communications between Armenia, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Iran through ‘renovating, building, and operating roads, railways, pipelines, cables, and electricity lines’ is the main goal of the project.[19] It envisions an effective route for rail and road communications that connects the Georgian ports on the Black Sea with the Gulf. Prime Minister Pashinyan listed some of the tenets of Crossroads of Peace, such as the sovereignty of the nations through which the connectivity projects pass, and the obligation of each nation to guarantee infrastructure security as well as the safe movement of people, goods, and vehicles. To guarantee the safety of travellers, vehicles, and cargo crossing its territory, Armenia has suggested establishing a special force.
(ii) Azerbaijan: Baku is implementing various projects to improve national and regional connectivity through rail, road and sea. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the South Caucasus natural gas pipeline are major projects to improve energy connectivity. Azerbaijan is also augmenting Baku seaport capacity. Azerbaijan seeks to become a major energy supplier to Europe in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is showing no signs of abatement. European countries are seeking new energy sources diversifying from Russia and Azerbaijan is ready to help meet their demands. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku in July 2022. The two sides signed an MoU on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy. They plan to double the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor to deliver around 20 billion cubic metres of gas to EU annually by 2027.
(iii) Iran: Iran, Russia, and Turkiye – the three neighbours of South Caucasus – are all working on regional connectivity projects. A plan to build a rail corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous region through Iran was announced in October 2023, marking a significant development in regional geopolitics, particularly from a connectivity perspective.[20] The construction of the Aghband automobile bridge over the Araz River to connect the Horadiz-Jabrayil-Zangilan-Aghband highway in Azerbaijan with the Iranian highway grid across the river has been launched.[21] The project is expected to complete within two years, creating new opportunities for regional countries and increasing East-West transport potential.
(iv) Russia: Russia and Iran are both dealing with sanctions imposed by Western nations and are looking for ways to create trade routes that are free of sanctions. On 17 May 2023 President Vladimir Putin and President Ebrahim Raisi met virtually and decided to fund and build a rail line that would connect Russia to the Persian Gulf via Azerbaijan.[22] The plans call for building about 160-kilometre rail link between Rasht and Astara (closer to Azerbaijan border) in northern Iran. This Rasht-Astara section is a part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and is expected to be completed by 2027. It will provide a direct connection, including through rail, from Russia to India. President Putin stated in his speech that it will contribute to ‘considerably diversifying global transport flows.’ He further stated that the delivery of shipments from St. Petersburg to Mumbai will take roughly ten days.[23] Though the agreement is bilateral, both Iran and Russia expect a trilateral agreement over railway infrastructure and freight traffic via INSTC involving Azerbaijan in near future. Apart from India, Iran and Russia INSTC includes both Armenia and Azerbaijan among other countries, and part of it is already operational.
(v) Turkiye: Turkiye and Azerbaijan are allies. Turkiye shares borders with Armenia but has no direct access to mainland Azerbaijan though a small strip of land links southern Turkiye to Azerbaijan’s Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan. Following the September military operation by Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a visit to Nakhchivan on 25 September 2023 and met with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev.[24] The two countries announced the construction of a natural gas pipeline between Igdur (Turkiye) and Nakhichevan. The ground-breaking ceremony for the 85-kilometer pipeline was held, which will have an annual capacity of 500 million cubic meters (mcm).[25] A ‘Protocol of Intent’ on the Kars-Nakhchivan Railway Project was also signed between the two countries.
Conclusion
It is still to be seen if the curtain is drawn over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and both Armenia and Azerbaijan would normalize their bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs spurred by the national policy directions of the two countries. Regional countries are facilitating the resolution of regional issues in a constructive manner. Azerbaijan hopes to benefit from both the INSTC and the emerging Middle Corridor. Three of South Caucasia’s neighbours appear to support improving regional interactions based on their approach and emphasis on diversified connectivity. The current tendency is also backed by the contemporary trends in international economic exchanges which is of rapid development of resilient transport routes and emphasis on saving-time and environment friendly transport infrastructure. Both the South Caucasian countries and their neighbours appear to adapting well to a changing situation.
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*Dr. Athar Zafar is a Senior Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. The views are of the author.
Endnotes
[i] Based on the tradition of the UN, Parties are organized into five regional groups, mainly for the purposes of electing the Bureau, namely: African States, Asian States, Eastern European States, Latin American and the Caribbean States, and the Western European and Other States (the ‘Other States’ include Australia, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and the US, but not Japan, which is in the Asian Group). Source: United Nations Climate Change.
[1] Felix Light, “Azerbaijan launches 'anti-terrorist operation' in Karabakh,” Reuters, 19 September 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-launches-anti-terrorist-operation-karabakh-2023-09-19/, accessed 23 September 2023
[2] Anahit Hayrapetyan and Melik Benkritly, “Refugees find safety in Armenia, but the future remains uncertain,” 20 October 2023, https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/refugees-find-safety-armenia-future-remains-uncertain, accessed 25 October 2023
[3] Al Jazeera, “Azerbaijan forces attack Nagorno-Karabakh as threat of new war looms,” 19 September 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/19/azerbaijan-forces-attack-nagorno-karabakh-as-threat-of-new-war-looms, accessed 20 September 2023
[4] Felix Light, “Armenia's PM Pashinyan says he hopes for Azerbaijan peace deal,” Reuters, 26 October 20233, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenias-pm-pashinyan-we-hope-peace-with-azerbaijan-soon-2023-10-26/, accessed 30 November 2023
[5] Felix Light, “Armenia says it is ready to make peace but Azerbaijan says process undermined,” 17 October 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-ready-sign-peace-deal-with-azerbaijan-by-year-end-tass-cites-pm-2023-10-17/, accessed 1 December 2023
[6] Daily Sabah, “Azerbaijan says ‘no alternative’ to normalization with Armenia,” 5 November 2023, https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/azerbaijan-says-no-alternative-to-normalization-with-armenia/news, accessed 2 December 2023
[7] Aljazeera, “What to know about the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire,” 20 September 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/whats-happening-in-nagorno-karabakh-between-azerbaijan-and-armenia, accessed 25 September 2023
[8] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, “Joint statement of the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan,” 7 December 2023,
https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/12/07/Announcement/, accessed 8 December 2023
[9] RFE/RL's Armenian Service, “Armenia Says No Intention Of Quitting Russian-Led CSTO Despite Summit Snub,” 23 November 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-csto-no-intention-quit/32697300.html, accessed 7 December 2023
[10] Rob Garver, “US Troops’ Arrival in Armenia for Training Riles Russia,” The Voice of America, 11 September 2023, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-troops-arrival-in-armenia-for-training-riles-russia/7264316.html, accessed 26 September 2023
[11] European Council, “Armenia: EU launches a civilian mission to contribute to stability in border areas,” 20 February 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/02/20/armenia-eu-launches-a-civilian-mission-to-contribute-to-stability-in-border-areas/, accessed 26 September 2023
[12] TASS, “Armenian, Azerbaijani prime ministers hold talks in Georgia,” 27 October 2023, https://tass.com/world/1697767?utm_source=bing.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=bing.com&utm_referrer=bing.com, accessed 1 December 2023
[13] RFE/RL's Georgian Service Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, “Aliyev Says Azerbaijan Ready To 'Instantly' Begin Georgia-Hosted Talks With Armenia,” 8 October 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-aliyev-armenia-talks-georgia-karabakh/32628325.html, accessed 2 December 2023
[14] Mariam Papidze, “Tbilisi Silk Road Forum connects thousands to “make tomorrow resilient”: insights from 4th edition,” agenda.ge, 1 November 2023, https://agenda.ge/en/article/2023/32, accessed 30 November 2023
[15] Federal Department of Foreign Affairs FDFA, “South Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan),” https://www.eda.admin.ch/deza/en/home/countries/south-caucasus.html, accessed 7 December 2023
[16] ISNA, “رئیسی: ایران آماده کمک به حل و فصل اختلافات آذربایجان و ارمنستان است,” 23 October 2023, https://tinyurl.com/ywrfcs29, accessed 7 December 2023
[17] Parisa Hafezi, Felix Light, and Tuvan Gumrukcu, “Iran hosts Armenia-Azerbaijan talks, Russia says main issue resolved in Nagorno-Karabakh,” 24 October 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-visit-tehran-monday-ria-2023-10-22/, accessed 29 November 2023
[18] Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Armenian PM presents the “Crossroads of Peace” project at Silk Road conference in Tbilisi,” Public Radio of Armenia, 26 October 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/10/26/armenian-pm-presents-the-crossroads-of-peace-project-at-silk-road-conference-in-tbilisi/, accessed 7 December 2023
[19] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, “Prime Minister Pashinyan presents the "Crossroads of Peace” project and its principles at the Tbilisi International Forum,” 26 October 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2023/10/26/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/, accessed 28 November 2023
[20] Silvia Boltuc, “Strategic Significance of the new Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Project: Shaping South Caucasus Geopolitics,” Special Eurasia, 9 October 2023, https://www.specialeurasia.com/2023/10/09/azerbaijan-iran-railway/, accessed 3 December 2023
[21] Gunay Hajiyeva, “Azerbaijan, Iran Lay Foundation of Aghband Highway Bridge,” 23 September 2023, https://www.caspiannews.com/news-detail/azerbaijan-iran-lay-foundation-of-aghband-highway-bridge-2022-9-22-0/, accessed 2 December 2023
[22] Joshua Kucera, “Russia and Iran agree on new rail corridor via Azerbaijan,” 26 May 2023, https://eurasianet.org/russia-and-iran-agree-on-new-rail-corridor-via-azerbaijan, accessed 2 December 2023
[23] President of Russia, “Ceremony for signing an intergovernmental agreement with Iran on cooperation in the construction of the Rasht-Astara railway line in Iran to boost transportation via the international North-South transport corridor,” 17 May 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71144, accessed 27 November 2023
[24] Presidency of the Republic of Turkiye, ““Nakhchivan holds a special place in our relations with Azerbaijan,” 25 September 2023, https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/149591/-nakhchivan-holds-a-special-place-in-our-relations-with-azerbaijan-, accessed 26 September 2023
[25] Daily Sabah, “Erdoğan, Aliyev attend foundation-laying for Nakhchivan Gas Pipeline,” 25 September 2023, https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/erdogan-aliyev-attend-foundation-laying-for-nakhchivan-gas-pipeline, accessed 26 September 2023