The recent bilateral meeting between President Biden and President Xi, held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in California, is being cautiously viewed with optimism and this was President Xi Jinping’s first visit to the United States in six years. The two leaders had last met at the G20 Summit in Bali. The recent meeting is being viewed as an acknowledgement of continued interdependence of both nations in addressing global and regional challenges despite their differences. China’s statement on the meeting states, “For China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option.”[i] It further adds, “The world is big enough to accommodate both countries, and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other.”[ii] The White House, in its statement, affirmed, “President Biden emphasized that the United States and China are in competition, noting that the United States would continue to invest in the sources of American strength at home and align with allies and partners around the world.… He reiterated that the world expects the United States and China to manage competition responsibly to prevent it from veering into conflict, confrontation, or a new Cold War.”[iii] While the two governments have hailed the meeting as positive, scepticism remains on the extent of the willingness from both parties to participate in constructive discussions while continuing to remain suspicious of each other.
Takeaways from the Biden-Xi Meeting
The resumption of high-level military-to-military communication, along with the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks and the U.S.-China Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meetings, stands out as a significant step forward. China had stopped these communications after the visit of former Speaker of the House Ms. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) visit to Taiwan. The renewal of communication is not limited to the highest officials; it rather represents the resumption of talks between the theatre commanders. While these channels of communication are not new and might not be able to meaningfully mitigate the growing military tension between the two countries, nonetheless, for the countries of the region, they point to a positive step. The United States and China are operating in close proximity to each other in the Indo-Pacific region, and potentially dangerous encounters between military aircraft and ships have become more pronounced. Renewals of channels of communication are being seen as a means to reduce the likelihood of accident, both in the waters and air. While welcoming the step, the United States underscored that it will continue to support a free and open Indo-Pacific, emphasising freedom of navigation and over-flight and adherence to international law to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and East China Sea.[iv]
A second takeaway for the United States was China’s willingness to check the production of illicit fentanyl-related products, a leading case of drug overdose in the United States. Additionally, both nations welcomed the resumption of bilateral cooperation to combat global illicit drug manufacturing and trafficking, including synthetic drugs like fentanyl. They agreed to form a working group for ongoing communication and law enforcement coordination on counternarcotics issues.[v] While the issue has bipartisan support within the United States, it remains to be seen what concrete steps China will take to assure the United States of its commitment to tackle this issue.
According to China, the Taiwan question remains the most important and most sensitive issue in China-U.S. relations.[vi] Cross-strait relations remain tense, with China conducting a number of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. The United States emphasised that it continued to follow the One China policy while opposing any unilateral changes to the status quo. Additionally, it has asked China to respect election results in the island nation and cooperate to ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. President Biden also called for restraint in the People’s Republic of China’s military activities in and around the Taiwan Strait.[vii] Although China stated it has no plans to use military power, it also stated that it “will realise reunification, and this is unstoppable.”[viii] Among international conflicts, the United States called on China to use its influence to restrain both Russia and Iran and help in de-escalating the Ukraine conflict and fostering peace in the Middle East.
A point of convergence was the need to understand the risks and safety issues related to artificial intelligence (AI). The technological rivalry between the United States and China is heating up, and nowhere more fiercely than in AI. This is not a surprise given its potential to boost both nations’ productivity and competitiveness and to tip the geopolitical and military balance. While both nations compete with each other in the field of AI’s development, they would need to work together to ensure that AI technology can be used responsibly. The United States is leading the talks on placing guardrails on the use of AI in the military. The military potential of AI has emerged as a key point of contention in the relationship, especially with its use by China in the military domain. This potential is a key reason why the United States has sought to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors, restricting its ability to harness the technology for military ends.[ix] Nonetheless, increased engagement with China’s regulators and experts on their experience of developing and implementing AI law and policy would allow for more exchange of best practices and consensus on global policy development on the subject. Additionally, climate change remains an area of convergence between the two nations. As two of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, both reaffirmed their commitment to work jointly to address the climate crisis.
Economic relations continue to be a challenge for both nations. President Xi faces domestic economic issues such as high unemployment and an ageing population. International financial markets are wary of the Chinese market due to expanding State control over industries as well as due to United States sanctions. International companies are concerned that geopolitics is affecting business as China conducts raids on foreign firms. The United States has also restricted American investments in Chinese industries. The Executive Order 14105 (August 2023) restricted American investments in “sensitive technologies and products in the semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and artificial intelligence sectors that are critical for the military, intelligence, surveillance, or cyber-enabled capabilities” of China.[x] Lowering tensions in U.S.-China relations provides President Xi with an opportunity to focus his attention towards reviving the domestic economy. The thaw may also allow China to gain concessions from the United States for the removal of sanctions on some Chinese entities. During the visit, President Xi held meetings with top American industry leaders to attract foreign investments to help boost the slowing Chinese economy. China would like the United States to lift trade sanctions and change its policies on the export of technology and sensitive equipment to China. Whether the Biden Administration will be able to provide concessions to China remains to be seen. In a polarised political atmosphere, taking a tough posture towards China has found rare bipartisan support in the United States. With presidential elections in 2024, both parties, the Republicans and Democrats, would not like to appear to be weak to their biggest competitor. The United States is likely to continue with its de-risking strategies even while China alleges that these are intended for its isolation.
Conclusion
The meeting between President Biden and President Xi has generated interest in understanding how the two nations would take forward the relationship. Any reduction in tension between the two geopolitical rivals would undoubtedly be welcomed globally. Issues like economic growth, climate change, regulations that prevent the unregulated use of cutting-edge technology such as AI, particularly in the military field, which find mention in their respective statements are global challenges. Any cooperation by the two countries in this regard will have global ramifications as well as impact in their respective regions.
However, while the meeting itself marked a positive step forward, the statements by the respective governments show that they have different vision on the overall direction of the relationship and their respective roles in the geo-strategically critical Indo-Pacific region. China would like the United States to acknowledge its rise and its leadership position. It has been alarmed by the growing efforts of the United States to bolster its relations with its allies and new partners to counter China’s rise. These include the United States’ strengthening ties with India and upgraded strategic partnerships with Vietnam and Indonesia. The fact that the two nations did not release a joint statement, unlike in the past, is also indicative of widening differences in their approaches and divergent visions towards each other. The United States is keeping the ‘lines of communication open’, aiming to manage competition with China and avoid conflict.[xi] For China, “major-country competition cannot solve the problems facing China and the United States or the world.”[xii] They differ in their approach towards Taiwan, and while the United States has urged China to use its influence on Russia, Iran and North Korea, here again, they have different views. From the U.S. perspective, issues such as tensions in the South China Sea, China’s continued aggressive military posturing, and its increased State control of the economy, along with inherent suspicions on the intentions of China as it seeks re-engagement, could cause roadblocks to the progress made.
Given these differences on key issues, doubts remain whether the Summit agreements will be sufficient to halt a further downward spiral in bilateral ties. Nonetheless, for the moment, the meeting helps somewhat stabilise U.S.-China relations, while at the same time allowing both Heads of State to address their respective domestic constituencies.
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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “President Xi Jinping Meets with U.S. President Joe Biden, 16 Nov. 2023”, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202311/t20231116_11181442.html#:~:text=President%20Xi%20Jinping%20noted%20that,cling%20to%20the%20zero%2Dsum, Accessed on 24 November 2023.
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] The Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, “Readout of President Joe Biden’s Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China, 15 Nov. 2023,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/15/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-2/, Accessed on 23 November 2023.
[iv] Ibid.
[v] Ibid.
[vi] Op.Cit 1, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
[vii] Op.Cit 3, The Office of the Press Secretary, The White House.
[viii] Op.Cit 1, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
[ix] ----, “The US Wants China to Start Talking About AI Weapons 13 Nov. 2023”, https://www.wired.com/story/us-china-killer-ai-weapons-apec-talks/, Accessed on 23 November 2023.
[x] The Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, “Executive Order on Addressing United States Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern 09 August 2023”, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/08/09/executive-order-on-addressing-united-states-investments-in-certain-national-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern/, Accessed on 24 November 2023
[xi] Op.Cit 3, The Office of the Press Secretary, The White House.
[xii] Op.Cit 1,Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China