On 13 October 2023, the Council of Heads of State of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit was held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, under the Chairmanship of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Sadyr Japarov. While the Presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan participated in the Summit, the President of Armenia did not.
The CIS is the largest regional organisation of the former Soviet Republics, established following the disintegration of the USSR. The Arctic Ocean borders the CIS from the north, the Pacific Ocean from the east, and the Atlantic Ocean from the west and southwest. The CIS encompasses much of Eastern Europe, Northern Asia, and Central Europe. Currently, every former Soviet Republic, except the Baltic countries, is a member of the CIS.[i] Currently, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are the nine full members.
Ukraine and Turkmenistan are considered founding States but have not become full members. However, Kyiv withdrew all of its representatives in 2018 after refusing to participate following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Following the 2008 war with Russia, Georgia left the organisation.[ii] Against the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Moldova also announced its gradual withdrawal from the CIS.[iii]
In this regard, the Summit holds greater significance due to many regional developments that have geopolitical impact. It is speculated that the declining relationship between Moscow and Yerevan is the reason for Armenia's absence. However, President Putin, in his remarks, said that Yerevan is not planning to leave the CIS in any capacity, and he is in contact with the leader of the Transcaucasian country.[iv] In May 2021 and September 2022, during a resurgence of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Yerevan requested assistance from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), and the CSTO opted not to intervene on both occasions.[v] In October 2023, Armenian troops also skipped a military exercise as part of the CSTO conducted in Kyrgyzstan.[vi]
Moreover, Armenia conducted a joint military exercise with the US from 11 to 20 September 2023.[vii] The holding of the exercise was viewed by some analysts as Yerevan's efforts to strengthen ties with the US and other Western allies amid simmering tensions with neighbouring Azerbaijan and souring ties with Moscow, Yerevan's principal ally since the 1991 Soviet disintegration. Earlier in September 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the decision to rely only on Russia to ensure its security was a strategic error for Yerevan because Moscow has failed to fulfil its obligations and is in the process of diminishing its position in the wider region.[viii]
The sanctions placed on Russia are also putting pressure on Central Asian countries. Consequently, they are pursuing a multifaceted and diversified approach encompassing engagement with Western countries with added impetus. In 2023, in addition to China, the five Central Asian countries convened Summit-level meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, US President Joe Biden, and President of the European Council Charles Michel.[ix] Russia is certainly concerned about the acceleration of Western outreach towards Central Asia. The first overseas travel of Russian President Putin since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for illegally abducting and deporting children from Ukraine in March 2023 made this Summit more significant.
At the CIS Summit, the Leaders paid particular attention to the security situation in the Eurasian landmass, the developments surrounding the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict, the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the ongoing crisis in West Asia. Other issues related to cooperation in digitalisation between the CIS Member States, food security, enhancing public health, law enforcement cooperation, drug trafficking, terrorism, and extremism were also discussed.
On the sidelines of the Summit, the Russian President had bilateral meetings with Presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan. An agreement to establish a joint air defence system between Russia and Kyrgyzstan was a crucial achievement.[x] According to the agreement, Kyrgyzstan will provide a five-hectare plot of land close to Kant Air Base to facilitate establishing the joint air defence system.[xi] The Russian President stated that the air defence system between Russia and Kyrgyzstan would eventually become part of a CIS air-defence system. In a bilateral meeting with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, the Russian President primarily discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh situation. The situation surrounding Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan was discussed in the meeting between Putin and Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon.
Security Cooperation
The Summit adopted several documents on security cooperation, including the Interstate Programme of Joint Measures to Combat Crime for 2024–2028, the agreement on the establishment of the Coordination Council in the field of forensic activities, and the agreement on the establishment of the International Centre for Assessing the Risks of Legalisation (Laundering) of Proceeds from Crime and the Financing of Terrorism. Russia emphasised its approach of military cooperation and Eurasian diplomacy strategy at the Summit to strengthen its influence in CIS.[xii]
Economic Cooperation
In 2011, the CIS Member States initiated the Free Trade Zone Agreement, the foundation of economic cooperation between the CIS countries. Recently, a strategy for the CIS's economic development until 2030 was also approved. This strategy incorporates cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), emphasising enhanced connectivity and supply chain resilience. In this regard, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon stated, “Currently, challenges regarding economic security are faced by the CIS Member States”. He also said that the economic strategy should be implemented considering the individual Member States’ resources, production, and financial capabilities, as well as the geopolitical and geo-economic conditions of the global and regional arenas.[xiii]
President Putin also stated that "despite sanctions pressure and threats to apply secondary sanctions against those who continue to work with Russia and Belarus, economic ties between the CIS countries are expanding. Russian trade turnover reached $102 billion in 2022, up 6% over the previous year with the Commonwealth Republics."[xiv] Following the Summit, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, stated that signing the Agreement on Free Trade in Services and Establishment of Activities and Investments by the CIS Member States is one of the significant achievements.[xv]
Status of Partners and Observers
The CIS Member States approved the proposal to introduce observer and partner country status within the organisation. The CIS will allow additional states to join if they want to work together as partners and observers.[xvi] In this regard, Russian President Putin said that the CIS will grow through engagement with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) countries. He said establishing collaboration between the CIS and BRICS countries will be a crucial objective for Russia, especially since Russia will lead both organisations in 2024.[xvii] He further stated that coordination with the Global South or the countries whose perspectives are very similar to ours is essential.
Socio-Cultural Cooperation
The status of the Russian language in the CIS and beyond was also discussed at the Summit, given that 2023 is the “Year of the Russian Language” as a language of interethnic communication. Additionally, an agreement was approved to establish the International Organisation for the Russian Language, which will be located in Sochi.[xviii] In this regard, President Putin said the International Organisation for the Russian Language will help promote language awareness worldwide.[xix] Additionally, Russia is actively promoting Russian Houses – branches of prestigious Russian colleges and universities – in the member countries.
Other Issue: Statement on the Israeli-Palestinian issue
During the Summit, the Foreign Ministers of the CIS countries adopted a separate Statement on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. The Foreign Ministers of Uzbekistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia signed the statement.[xx] In the Statement, the Foreign Ministers denounced acts of terrorism, extremism, capturing civilians as hostages, and the indiscriminate use of force in military operations, along with urging an end to hostilities and creating humanitarian corridors. They emphasised the significance of diplomatic efforts in bringing peace to West Asia. Russia supports implementing the UN's two-state solution. Russian President said that the failure of the US strategy in West Asia is the reason for the current crisis and humanitarian catastrophe.[xxi] However, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan did not sign this statement.
Conclusion
Russia’s pre-occupation with the Russia-Ukraine conflict has impacted its ties with its allies, and its influence has somewhat diminished. The growing Western influence in the region is of concern for Russia. In this context, the CIS Summit presents an opportunity for a collective dialogue to expand and strengthen cooperation with the Member States of the CIS, especially in the changing geopolitical landscape and to reinforce mutual trust.
*****
*Dr. Punit Gaur, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
Endnotes
[i] Radio Ozodi, “The CIS summit in Bishkek ended with the signing of a number of documents”, 13 October 2023, https://rus.ozodi.org/a/32636385.html. Accessed on 29 October 2023.
[ii] RadioFreeEurope RadioLiberty, “Moldova Is Distancing Itself from the CIS, But Leaving Might Not Be So Easy”, 18 May 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-leaving-cis-russia/32417644.html. Accessed on 30 October 2023.
[iii] Ibid.
[v] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia (2022), “The confirmation of the CSTO zone of responsibility in the Republic of Armenia is of fundamental importance for us. PM Pashinyan at the session of the CSTO Collective Security Council” 23 November 2022, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2022/11/23/Nikol-Pashinyan-CSTO-meeting/. Accessed on 25 October 2023.
[vi] RadioFreeEurope RadioLiberty, “Armenia Notably Absent as Russian-Led CSTO Training Gets Under Way”, 12 October 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/csto-military-alliance-russia-armenia-absent/32634376.html. Accessed on 20 October 2023.
[vii] Aljazeera, “US completes joint military exercise in Armenia”, 20 September 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/us-completes-joint-military-exercise-in-armenia. Accessed on 25 October 2023.
[viii] Reuters, “Armenian PM says depending solely on Russia for security was strategic mistake”, 3 September 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenian-pm-says-depending-solely-russia-security-was-strategic-mistake-2023-09-03/. Accessed on 26 October 2023.
[ix] The Diplomat, “Another Summit to Watch: Commonwealth of Independent States Heads to Gather in Kyrgyz Capital”, 12 October 2023, https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/another-summit-to-watch-commonwealth-of-independent-states-heads-to-gather-in-kyrgyz-capital/. Accessed on 28 October 2023.
[x] The Statesman, “Russia, Kyrgyzstan to set up joint air defence system”, 13 October 2023, https://www.thestatesman.com/world/russia-kyrgyzstan-to-set-up-joint-air-defence-system-1503230920.html. Accessed on 31 October 2023.
[xi] Ibid.
[xii] The President of Kyrgyz Republic, “President Sadyr Japarov made a statement to the mass media on the results of the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS”, 13 October 2023, https://president.kg/news/all/24665. Accessed on 23 October 2023.
[xiii] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan, “Participation in the meeting of the Council of Heads of CIS Member States”, 13 October 2023, https://www.mfa.tj/en/main/view/13579/participation-in-the-meeting-of-the-council-of-heads-of-cis-member-states. Accessed on 21 October 2023.
[xiv] IZVESTIA, “Friendly treason: how Putin assessed the role of Ukraine and Moldova in the CIS”, 13 October 2023, https://iz.ru/1589107/alena-nefedova-semen-boikov/sodruzheskaia-izmena-kak-putin-otcenil-rol-ukrainy-i-moldavii-v-sng. Accessed on 25 October 2023.
[xv] The President of Kyrgyz Republic, “President Sadyr Japarov made a statement to the mass media on the results of the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS”, 13 October 2023, https://president.kg/news/all/24665. Accessed on 23 October 2023.
[xvi] Chairmanship of Kyrgyzstan, “Observer and Partner statuses have been established in the CIS”, 13 October 2023, https://e-cis.info/news/564/112827/. Accessed on 28 October 2023.
[xvii] URU.RU, “The CIS project will be expanded to include new countries”, 13 October 2023, https://ura.news/news/1052694185. Accessed on 27 October 2023.
[xviii] Vedomosti, “What Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Council of CIS Heads of State”, 13 October 2023, https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2023/10/13/1000535-chto-govoril-putin-na-zasedanii. Accessed on 24 October 2023.
[xix] Ibid.
[xx] Izvestia, “Friendly treason: how Putin assessed the role of Ukraine and Moldova in the CIS”, 13 October 2023, https://iz.ru/1589107/alena-nefedova-semen-boikov/sodruzheskaia-izmena-kak-putin-otcenil-rol-ukrainy-i-moldavii-v-sng. Accessed on 25 October 2023.
[xxi] Ibid.