Indian Council of World Affairs

Distinguished Chair & Experts, Members of the Diplomatic Corps, Students & Friends!

• After fighting a bloody liberation war in 1971 in which it successfully broke away from the oppressive and genocidal regime of West Pakistan, Bangladesh took birth to give itself a distinct identity with the aspiration of granting its people full social, political and economic rights. 

• Marred by relentless natural calamities like famine, floods and super cyclones; by severe political volatility - authoritarian rule, political assassinations and coups, military and now hybrid regimes; and by dismal socio-economic parameters, the people of Bangladesh however continue to search for the promised security, stability and prosperity. 

• State institutions like the Army and the judiciary play a larger than life role in Bangladesh in domestic and foreign policy making. Since 1971, either the Awami League or the Bangladesh Nationalist Party have been in power interspersed by military regimes or interim governments. With frequent dismissals of elected governments, the political culture of Bangladesh presents a very poor picture – one marked by severe political repression, violent protests, strikes, desecration, loot & arson, demolition of private and public properties, political incarceration and killings. As if that was not enough, every regime change has been followed by attempts to re-write history and this is what is yet again being witnessed in Bangladesh presently.  

• Bangladesh’s inherent political culture is not far removed from that of Pakistan. Having been conjoined twins for a quarter of a century, they very much share the same political DNA. The bonhomie and affinity that Bangladesh’s Army, for instance, has enjoyed with that of Pakistan’s over the decades are miles ahead of the relationship that the apolitical Indian Army and the deeply politicized Bangladesh Army have ever had. Similarly, the Islamic radical groups which have found fertile soil in Bangladesh have fed on close linkages with their Pakistani counterparts which continue to this date. 1971 might have divided the two, but the same malaise dictates their polity. 

• The current Chief Advisor Yunus-led interim government was established after a semblance of normalcy was restored to conduct a fresh free and fair election. Given that the January 2024 election under the aegis of the Awami League Government was alleged to be rigged, demands have been made since the current interim government came to power for electoral reforms before the next election. However, instead of taking action in this regard to calm the student community and the various political factions as also the radical elements, the interim government propped by the Army is actively pursuing polarizing agendas. In the name of conducting raids like “Operation Devil Hunt” purportedly aimed at those who want to ‘destabilize’ the country, the interim government is directly targeting and arresting pro-democracy forces, weakening severely the credibility of the hybrid regime. 

• The economy and infrastructure are also at a standstill. In the last six months, Bangladesh has witnessed strikes in major sectors of the economy including export oriented sectors like textiles and the transport sector and has seen frequent highway blockades. 

• Intolerance has come to pervade inter-faith and inter-ethnic relations. Though underplayed by the interim government and the local media, there has been a significant rise in cases of intolerance and violence against religious and ethnic minorities. A rise in the presence of international radical Islamic groups is also being seen. While suppression of the freedom of the media as well as social media platforms is fostering frustration among the masses, killings of persons belonging to minorities heading local and international organizations, like the recent assassination of Project Director Utpal Roy of the US civil society organization ‘Save the Children’ are nevertheless attracting wide attention. 

• While making violent attempts to rewrite history and alter the social fabric, the interim government of Yunus backed by the Army has also opted to adjust and check the level of cooperation and partnership the previous Awami League government had forged with India. Yunus is rather opting to carve out new avenues and strengthen partnerships with countries like Pakistan and China, including in the defense and military sectors. Of course, the closeness between the previous US Administration and Yunus has been widely discussed in the media; and the dynamics under the new US administration remain to be seen. The impact of the rising political volatility on the situation at the Bangladesh-Myanmar international border, especially with the rising influence of the Arakan Army, also needs careful examining. 

• For India, Bangladesh remains an important neighbour, irrespective of the government in power and India will have to work to rebuild trust and confidence without undermining its national and security interests. While it respects Bangladesh’s internal affairs, there is especially a need to keep a close watch on the more than 4000 kms long international border, as such political and economic instability usually triggers criminal activities like human, arms, drugs and animal trafficking and infiltration. Needless to add, the well-being of people on either side of the border is paramount. 

• I welcome the distinguished experts on our panel today. I am sure they will discuss these issues in detail and make several such observations. I look forward to a thought provoking and a lively discussion. I wish them all the best.

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