Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Climate-induced migration, as a phenomenon, has already started, but despite acknowledgement of climate change’s repercussions for human mobility, a lacuna in governance frameworks and instruments exists. This policy gap between the existing reality and the lack of a structured framework implies a protection gap in migration governance. This article details the necessity for a mechanism to fill this gap. 

Introduction 

Climate migration is not merely a future projection, but a reality that is currently shaping global migration patterns both within and across borders. Yet, there is no comprehensive global framework to govern this phenomenon. Climate change and its catastrophic consequences for sea levels, ice caps and drying lands are widely acknowledged and accepted by the international community. The consequences of global heating are visible in ferocious storms, fiery wildfires and droughts. This phenomenon has immense repercussions for human beings and their movements. Although a considerable increase in the attention paid to the impact of climate change on migration is noticeable, the environmental part is prioritised over the mobility aspect, which sees limited analysis. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) considers climate migration to take place due to sudden or gradual environmental changes that have negative implications for people’s living conditions, but there is no internationally agreed-upon term. 

Communities worldwide are being forced to relocate due to climate-related disruptions. While internal displacement and migration will be common, transnational migration will be equally relevant, as certain countries will be either unable to accommodate the number of displacements or will become entirely uninhabitable, such as the Maldives or other small island nations. 

Despite this, there is a distinct lack of an international framework or agreement that addresses climate-change-induced migration, leaving affected populations without adequate protection. 

Identifying Regional Vulnerabilities and Policy Responses

South Asia: South Asia is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions, experiencing significant internal displacements. In 2024, about 5.4 million people in India had to move as a result of climate disasters, including the floods in Assam.[i] Further, the World Bank Group estimates that without proper action taken to address climate change, about 1.8 per cent of South Asia’s population, or 40.5 million people, can become climate migrants by 2050.[ii]

Bangladesh, like India, faces massive internal displacement coupled with forced migration outside the country. Climate risks have prompted migration from Bangladesh to India, with the Asian Development Bank identifying it as a high-volume corridor.[iii] Moreover, 17 per cent of the country is projected to be submerged by 2050, displacing around 20 million people.[iv] The Maldives faces an existential threat from rising sea levels. As one of the countries that is slowly sinking, the entire population faces the risk of displacement.

Within the region, India launched a National Action Plan on Climate Change in 2008, which provides a broad framework for addressing climate change but largely overlooks migration. While India actively supports international climate initiatives such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate financing mechanisms and the Loss and Damage Fund in the UN Climate Summits, more efforts are needed to address the existing policy vacuum on climate migrants and their protections.

Maldives, in particular, owing to the existential nature of climate risks, has sought to play a crucial role in formulating policies in this context. Recognising the risks to its population, Maldives has explored options like purchasing land in foreign lands.[v] A study also indicated that the majority of people are thinking about migrating to other countries due to the rising sea levels in the Maldives.[vi] Although individual countries in the region have formulated policies on responding to climate change, the migration element is often neglected, as the region’s climate strategies lack provisions on addressing climate-induced migration.[vii]

Southeast Asia: Looking at the Southeast Asian region, urban centres like Jakarta in Indonesia, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and Bangkok, and other island nations are at risk of “existential threat” due to projections of submersion.[viii] With climate mitigation strategies lacking impetus in the region, migration has become a key coping strategy. While internal displacement is expected to see a sharp rise, cross-border migration is also a feature of climate-induced migration.

As cross-border migration takes place in this climate-vulnerable region, it has been conceptualised as a security issue. Over the last two decades, the ASEAN Regional Forum Defence Officials Dialogue has recognised transnational forced migration as a threat connected to climate change.[ix] Despite this recognition and adoption of national frameworks for addressing climate change, there is little or no attention to the migration issue. Considerable clamour exists for ASEAN-led provisions to include climate-related migration, but as of yet, there is only a recognition of this phenomenon at the regional level without any concrete policy response.[x]

The Americas: This region is also seeing forced migratory movement due to the impact of climate change. Latin America, for instance, has seen food insecurity due to the degradation of agricultural land being a driver of migratory movements. UNHCR data indicates that climate change-related disasters have led to the displacement of 2.2 million people within the Latin America and Caribbean region. It is crucial to note that hurricanes in the Central American nations of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala led to migratory movements into Mexico and further north, into the US. This substantiates the argument about climate change being a major and accelerating driver behind migratory pressures. Within the region, Argentina has introduced a Special Humanitarian Visa Program for people displaced by climatic disasters, offering a rare policy example.[xi]

Africa: Climate change combined with political instability is driving migration across Africa. The 2009 Kampala Convention is the first notable legally binding instrument that seeks to build a comprehensive framework for response to internal displacement due to climate change.[xii] This Convention can act as a subsidiary to the 1951 Geneva Convention, as it provides for cross-border cooperation and protection for internally displaced people in the region. This model can aid in climate-induced migration by providing legal support for movement and it could be replicated in other regions.

Europe: Climate change is projected to have an immense adverse impact on the migration patterns in Europe. Rising temperatures and flooding are already having an impact in the region and leading to casualties. These events highlight the climate vulnerabilities of developed regions, positioning climate insecurity as more of a global issue than a Global South issue. In Europe, the Netherlands and some parts of Italy face rising sea levels, and the populations have to grapple with predictions of displacement.

The EU has also not offered a conceptual definition for climate migrants, and a report published by the European Parliament Research Service indicates that the lack of data on “external climate migrants” contributes to the lack of an international framework aimed at addressing this problem.[xiii] The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, the core policy framework governing migration matters, makes no mention of climate-induced migration. While the European Green Deal underlines climate change as a factor for migration, its absence in the EU pact speaks volumes. Although there is no regional policy focus on climate migration, Norway and Switzerland have launched the Nansen Initiative, a consultative process for the protection of cross-border displaced individuals relating to climate change and disasters. However, since this is a non-binding initiative, the legal vacuum remains unfulfilled.

Oceania Region: Within Oceania, Australia occupies a central position. Australia’s centrality in the region has been further enhanced due to an agreement with Tuvalu known as the Falepili Union Treaty.[xiv] The first agreement of its kind, it offers migration pathways for the citizens of Tuvalu, which is facing the existential threat of submersion. Embedded in this bilateral agreement are elements of neocolonialism, as Australia essentially gains a veto over security issues concerning Tuvalu, but the landmark agreement recognises the climate-migration nexus.

Within this region, small island nations face a serious threat from climate change given their low altitude. The gravity of the situation can be assessed by looking at some refugee applications from individuals belonging to these small island nations. Recent data indicate that 94 per cent of Kiribati households have been affected by climate change.[xv] The example of a Kiribati national applying for refugee status in New Zealand due to the possibility of his nation becoming submerged can be taken as a paradigmatic case. However, the application was rejected as there was no imminent threat to life, and an appeal against this decision was evaluated by the UN Human Rights Committee. The application refusal underlines the core challenge to international protection for climate migrants – the lack of an imminent risk as climate insecurity takes place gradually.

Assessment

Currently, there are no comprehensive legal frameworks for protecting climate migrants. Individuals migrating due to climate insecurity cannot be classified as refugees according to the 1951 Geneva Convention. The 1951 Geneva Convention is the fundamental law for refugees, but the definition excludes individuals forced to migrate as a consequence of climate change. While the Global Compact on Migration acknowledges the influence of climate change on migration, it is non-binding in nature. The lack of an internationally accepted definition of climate migrants and a framework stem from the complex interweaving of ecological factors with other social, economic and political factors. It is difficult to establish causality in the context of climate migrants but the expanding breadth of climate migrants necessitates greater policy focus.

Policy action is so lacking in this context that these climate migrants have also been labelled the “world’s forgotten victims”.[xvi] The individuals who are forced or compelled to migrate as a consequence of climate change have to grapple with a range of challenges in the new settings. By migrating, they lose their livelihood and economic security and have to struggle economically and socially in the new place. Further, with funding for humanitarian activities being curtailed worldwide, climate migrants are having to relocate multiple times in search of safer or more suitable environments. These recurring movements have immense implications on a security and humanitarian front. On the latter, international aid organisations are unable to adopt a proactive policy and are having to provide stopgap aid for immediate relief.

Policy framing on climate migrants requires a convergence on how climate migrants are conceptualised. The absence of an internationally accepted terminology for climate migrants embodies the lacuna in this regard. Terms like “environmental refugees”, “environmental migrants”, “climate refugees” and “climate-induced displaced people” are used interchangeably, without specific consideration.

Distinct framings of climate migrants make policy responses difficult to formulate and operationalise. The receiving state also faces an undue burden in this migration corridor. Internationally, the absence of legal frameworks leaves these climate migrants without protection. The primary resort for protection emerges in the form of litigation. For instance, a French court ruled that a migrant from Bangladesh could not be sent back to their home country due to air pollution. However, this form of litigation is quite limited in scope and cannot be an adequate substitute for international frameworks.

Conclusion

The impact of climate change is visible in the rising sea, warming temperatures and increase in catastrophic events. Despite this prevailing reality, there is a distinct lack of an international protection framework to address climate-induced migration and provide safeguards to the migrants. Though climate migrants are treated as a security risk, considering the broader trend towards securitising migrants, a humanitarian paradigm prioritising their protection would be in line with a more just climate response. Regionally grounded efforts, such as the Kampala Convention, applicable in the African context, can be explored by other regions.

Without a mechanism for addressing forced international relocation on the grounds of climate-related impacts, migration will only increase the vulnerabilities of individuals, leaving their homes for low climate risk terrains. Thus, this climate-migration issue, especially in transnational settings, has a profound legal vacuum. Due to its increasing scope, it should be positioned as a top policy issue.

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*Dr. Yashna Agarwalla, Research Associate (CMMDS), Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. “Country Profile India”, May 14, 2025, https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/india/.

[ii] World Bank Group. “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration”, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/401511522303177090/pdf/124722-BRI-PUBLIC-NEWSERIES-Groundswell-note-PN2.pdf.

[iii] Soraya Kishtwari, “India and Bangladesh Must Address Climate Migration Together”, 9DashLine, April 8, 2024, https://www.9dashline.com/article/india-and-bangladesh-must-address-climate-migration-together.

[iv] World’s Economic Forum, “Climate Refugees – the world’s forgotten victims”, June 18, 2021, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-world-s-forgotten-victims/.

[v] Naseem Qader, “The Diplomacy of Displacement: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Global Borders and Alliances”, USC Centre for Diplomacy, 2025, https://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/diplomacy-displacement-how-climate-migration-will-reshape-global-borders-and-alliances.

[vi] Mufti Nadimul Quamar Ahmed, Jennifer E. Givens and Aaron Arredondo, “The links between climate change and migration: a review of South Asian experiences”, SN Social Sciences, 2024.

[vii] MD Shiyan Sadik and Sakif Al Ehsan Khan, “Diplomatic Strategies in Addressing Climate-Induced Migration: A Critical Review of South Asian Nations”, North South Journal of Peace and Global Studies, Vol 1, No. 2, 2023.

[viii] KS Sathya, R. Aditya, Pranesh Raam et al, “Addressing climate-induced migration: challenges and opportunities in EU’s legal and policy framework”, E3S Web of Conference, 2024.

[ix] Lorraine Elliott, “Climate Change and Migration in Southeast Asia: Responding to a New Human Security Challenge”, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2012.

[x] Emma Hansen, “Regional Climate-related Mobility Governance in Southeast Asia”, Lund University, 2023.

[xi] Naseem Qader, “The Diplomacy of Displacement: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Global Borders and Alliances”, USC Centre for Diplomacy, 2025, https://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/diplomacy-displacement-how-climate-migration-will-reshape-global-borders-and-alliances.

[xii] UNHCR India, “Kampala Convention at 10 years: African Union leadership can deliver for IDPs”, December 6, 2022, https://www.unhcr.org/in/news/announcements/kampala-convention-10-years-african-union-leadership-can-deliver-idps.

[xiii] European Parliamentary Research Service, “The concept of 'climate refugee': Towards a possible definition”, 2023, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/698753/EPRS_BRI(2021)698753_EN.pdf.

[xiv] Sam Huckstep and Helen Dempster, “The Australia-Tuvalu Climate and Migration Agreement: Takeaways and Next Steps”, Centre for Global Development, 2023, https://www.cgdev.org/publication/australia-tuvalu-climate-and-migration-agreement-takeaways-and-next-steps.

[xv] Almulhim, A.I., Alverio, G.N., Sharifi, A. et al, “Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in depth analysis”, npj Climate Action, 3(47), 2024.

[xvi] World’s Economic Forum, “Climate Refugees – the world’s forgotten victims”, June 18, 2021, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-world-s-forgotten-victims/.