Indian Council of World Affairs

Ambassador Sood, Distinguished Experts, Members of the Diplomatic Corps, Students, and Friends! 

Welcome to today’s panel discussion on “Unstable Neighbourhood: Mapping Regime Changes and Political Realignments in South Asia Post 2021.” 

South Asia today stands at the crossroads of uncertainty and churn; and the global geopolitical turbulence is making its presence felt in South Asia. 

Lest I say that the upheavals in South Asia have begun to remind us of the tumult that the sub-continent last went through in the last century beginning nearly hundred years ago when the British Indian Empire saw five partitions, as a new book titled ‘Shattered Lands’ by Sam Dalrymple states, leading to the formation of twelve States – seven in present day South Asia. Human tragedy - encapsulated in catastrophic migrations, mass killings and loot, famines - accompanying these partitions then had got drowned in the din of political independence and foregrounding of religion as human security took a back seat, as borders that didn’t exist earlier were drawn and as a new map of South Asia emerged. 

Moreover, during the colonial period, the British were the enemy fighting whom, it was thought, would result in freedom from oppression. Post British exit, the situation however worsened in many ways with the enemy becoming unknown, invisible – sometimes appearing as unjustified poverty and hunger, sometimes inflicted disease, sometimes morphing into deeply fractured gender relations and of course the continuing oppression from all politico-economic-social ills, confusing people totally on whom to fight to defend themselves. That structural flaw, the dark imbalance, at the regional and global level is now playing out in South Asia. 

Since 2021 and post pandemic, the intense and unprecedented global churn currently underway has taken root in South Asia. This turbulence has manifested through a wave of political transitions across almost every country in our neighbourhood. Some transitions have come through electoral churn; others through street protests and popular uprisings; still others through coups, elite bargains, or governance breakdowns. Taken together, these regime changes have not only altered national trajectories but also reset external alignments, creating ripple effects across the entire region. 

What makes our discussion today even more timely is the dramatic turn of events in Nepal in recent days, with the collapse of the Nepalese government adding yet another layer to the region’s volatility. These developments remind us that regime change in South Asia is not an abstraction, but a lived, ongoing, and very current reality shaping and impacting the lives of people of the sub-continent in real time. 

It is also important to note that these recent changes, though they appear abrupt and sudden, have unfolded against a backdrop of long-standing structural challenges afflicting countries of South Asia: fragile economies, governance deficits, entrenched authoritarian tendencies, cross-border militancy, and humanitarian crises. Added to this is the well-known fact that South Asia is one of the most militarized regions in the world. It would, therefore, be naïve to assume that the sub-continent would somehow remain untouched by the global shifts currently underway as seen in the assertiveness of China, the recalibrations of US engagement, the activism of Gulf powers, Russia’s renewed interest, Japan’s revising security posture, and a Europe that refuses to give up its colonial mind-set and cede control. The outcome has been a neighbourhood more unstable, more contested, and more consequential for India’s foreign policy. 

To briefly recall,

• In Afghanistan, we see diverse narratives emerging surrounding Taliban 2.0 – of increasing stability and improved security being seen simultaneously, and paradoxically, with no credible demonstration of moderation on issues of inclusivity and women’s rights.
• In Sri Lanka, we saw the country plunging into its worst crisis since Independence - first economic and then morphing into political, the recovery from which continues to remain slow and painful.
• In Pakistan, confrontation among civilian parties, the judiciary, and the military continue unabated with frequent flashpoints. Further, every crisis seems to reaffirm the military’s dominance. And this coupled with near financial insolvency, the establishment’s soft approach to terrorism, and the rampant radicalization of Pak society.
• In Myanmar, the junta continues to face wide-spread resistance from Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces (PDF), leading to instability and criminal activity - with ripples and entanglements abroad.
• In Bangladesh, under the present interim leadership, the country appears to be moving closer to Islamist forces and external partnerships that pose potential challenges for the region’s strategic stability.
• In Maldives, while India’s cautious approach in face of a Government with an anti-India stance helped recalibrate relations and bolster regional security cooperation, Maldivian politics continues to remain highly polarized and vulnerable to external influence.
• In Nepal, the Gen Z-led protests demanding accountability have ousted the government, leading to an interim administration and dissolution of the House.

In short, uncertainty is writ large on these countries of South Asia today, even as inter-faith tensions in the region continue to simmer. 

For New Delhi, the stakes could not be higher. India’s Neighbourhood First policy is built on the vision of a stable, cooperative, and inter-dependent region. But that vision must constantly adapt to changing realities. Instability in the neighbourhood is not an abstraction; it has immediate consequences, whether in the form of refugee flows, economic shocks, cross-border terrorism, or shifting diplomatic alignments. While moments of transition offer opportunities for India to renew ties, more importantly, it also allows opportunities to India to position itself as a rising global power that can shoulder the responsibility of the Indian sub-continent and its own neighbourhood. For India, this requires nimbleness in immediate crisis response, foresight in long-term strategy and tight alignment between the two. 

Further, the vast differential in India’s size, economic strength and international stature and that of its small neighbours, casts upon it the responsibility of regional stability and, more importantly, alleviating human insecurity in the sub-continent. What are the pathways available to us towards this end? – it is to deliberate upon this that we have curated today’s panel discussion on ‘Unstable Neighborhood’. I look forward to thought-provoking discussions and I wish the panelists all the best.

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