Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: The 2025 Polish presidential election held on May 18 saw nationalist Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeat liberal challenger Rafał Trzaskowski. The election has brought renewed attention to the country’s deepening ideological divide. This paper explores how Nawrocki’s conservative platform may influence Poland’s domestic reforms and external relationships. It also reflects on what this shift means for the broader European landscape, where nationalist currents continue to gain ground.

Introduction 

The election of Karol Nawrocki as Poland’s next President marks a crucial moment in the country’s politics. Winning by a razor-thin victory over his liberal opponent Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.9 per cent to 49.1 per cent[i], Nawrocki’s win extends far-right control of the Presidency and prolongs the ideological standoff between executive and legislature. While the Polish Presidency carries limited executive powers, the President’s veto authority and capacity to refer legislation to the Constitutional Tribunal equip Nawrocki with powerful tools to obstruct Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist and pro-European reform agenda, without Tusk holding a veto-proof majority in Parliament to override it.

This paper looks into how his electoral success raises serious, multifaceted implications, not only about Poland’s political future but also its relationship with the European Union (EU) and the sustainability of democratic institutions in the face of rising nationalist sentiment.

From PiS Dominance to a Divided Government

From 2015 to 2023, Poland was governed entirely by the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS), which held both the Presidency and the lower house of the Polish Parliament, Sejm. During this eight-year rule, PiS implemented sweeping changes that restructured the judiciary (by politicising their appointments and interfering with the Constitutional Tribunal’s integrity), censored public media, and restricted civil liberties, including a near-total ban on abortion, among the strictest in the EU.[ii] The government also brought the Polish government into repeated clashes with Brussels over the rule of law and democratic backsliding. The European Commission withheld over €130 billion in funds due to non-compliance with EU judicial standards.[iii]

Donald Tusk, who previously served as the Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014 and the President of the European Commission from 2014 to 2019, returned to power in 2023, marking a sharp break from this political course. As leader of the Civic Coalition, he formed a broad centrist alliance that campaigned on restoring institutional integrity and reintegrating Poland fully into the European project. But without a supermajority, Tusk has faced continuous obstruction from President Andrzej Duda, who has vetoed key legislation, including efforts to expand reproductive rights and liberalise public broadcasting.[iv] Now, Nawrocki, who is younger and seen to be more ideologically driven, has inherited the presidential role with the expectation to preserve the PiS legacy, potentially with a more proactive approach than his predecessor.[v]

Nawrocki’s Mandate: Historical Revisionism and Hardline Conservatism

Nawrocki’s win reflects both continuity and intensification of Poland’s nationalist right.[vi] Previously, as the director of the Institute of National Remembrance, he gained recognition by promoting historical narratives that portrayed Poland as a perpetual victim of external aggression and internal moral decay. His campaign slogan, “Making Poland Normal Again”, was more than a populist catchphrase; it encapsulated a vision of a homogenous, Catholic and ethnically Polish society.[vii]

Unlike Duda, Nawrocki is not a seasoned politician. Despite lacking electoral experience, his ideological radicalism and uncompromising positions on issues like the total opposition to abortion liberalisation, rejection of LGBTQ+ rights and vocal scepticism toward EU environmental and judicial mandates managed to sway the Polish population to his side. His campaign received significant support from rural voters, especially young men aged 18–39, indicating a strong resonance across generations with his portrayal of conservative nationalism.[viii] The fact that Nawrocki’s candidacy survived multiple personal scandals, including allegations of criminal misconduct, highlights the extent to which Polish politics is now driven less by personal integrity and more by ideological alignment.[ix]

Domestic Implications: Political Deadlock and PiS Resurgence

Nawrocki’s Presidency is predicted to bring in a period of likely legislative paralysis. Tusk’s reform programme, particularly in restoring judicial autonomy, securing EU funds and reversing PiS-era institutional changes, is expected to face systematic vetoes, more so than under Duda. The President’s capacity to refer bills to the Constitutional Tribunal for the “resolution of conflicts”, which remains packed with PiS appointees, only fuels conservative obstruction.

Even though on 11 June Tusk’s government survived a vote of no confidence in parliament, reaffirming its majority support despite growing tensions with the Presidency, this political gridlock can still serve a broader strategic purpose.[x] By stalling reforms and nurturing public disappointment with the effectiveness of Tusk’s government, Nawrocki could pave the way for PiS to reclaim parliamentary power in 2027, or even earlier, should snap elections be called due to legislative uncertainty under Tusk.[xi] If talks of a potential alliance between PiS and the far-right Confederation party materialise, such a scenario would complete the conservative rollback against liberalisation, reversing what little institutional normalisation Tusk has achieved.[xii]

Conservative Atlanticism Meets Soft Euroscepticism

Internationally, Nawrocki’s election complicates Poland’s delicate balancing act between pro-Western security commitments and domestic nationalist agendas. His staunch support for NATO and military backing of Ukraine aligns with Poland’s long-standing anti-Russian posture.[xiii] And yet, Nawrocki has publicly opposed Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO, reflecting broader anxieties about national sovereignty and cultural dilution. His rhetoric on refugees from Ukraine has mirrored the public fatigue seen in the country. This has led to a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, despite Poland’s reliance on their labour and their contributions to economic growth.[xiv]

His foreign outlook prioritises cultural conservatism over strategic consensus. His close ties with Donald Trump and endorsement from key Trump-era officials signal a preference for transatlantic populist alignment over EU solidarity.[xv][xvi] This is likely to strain Poland’s relations with Brussels, particularly on climate policy, migration burden-sharing and budgetary negotiations. His previous comments on WWII reparations from Germany and the politicisation of historical memory also suggest potential diplomatic flare-ups with Berlin.[xvii]

Conclusion

Though he trailed Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round, Karol Nawrocki’s victory surprised Prime Minister Tusk and his coalition, who had pinned their hopes on a liberal win. Nawrocki’s support base was rooted in Poland’s eastern and rural regions, where his campaign successfully connected with conservative and socially traditional voters, demographics that Trzaskowski struggled to mobilise. This election is expected to continue the institutional standoff that has been seen in Polish politics for the past two years, since meaningful liberal change seems unlikely at present. Within the broader European context, Nawrocki’s election adds to the growing prominence of right-wing political forces across the EU. While Romania recently elected a pro-European President, Portugal saw a sharp rise in far-right representation, with Poland’s outcome consolidating the right’s foothold in the European environment. This highlights not only a divide in the Polish political landscape but also a growing polarisation in European societies and their ideologies. 

Nawrocki’s public endorsement from Donald Trump, his support for Ukraine’s defence but rejection of its EU or NATO accession, and his opposition to EU climate and migration frameworks all point to a vision of selective integration, one that favours national sovereignty over supranational alignment. Tusk’s coalition may still represent the institutional hope for liberal restoration, but Nawrocki’s Presidency now sets the tone of national politics. If the current gridlock erodes public confidence in governance, the 2027 parliamentary elections could see a PiS resurgence. Poland’s trajectory remains hanging between liberal restoration and nationalist consolidation. It is reasonable to conclude that its institutions will continue to serve as arenas of ideological contention and that Europe must engage with a Poland both central to the Union and increasingly uneasy within it.

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*Manaswita Garg, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal. 

Endnotes

[i] “Presidential Election The Republic of Poland 2025.” June 1, 2025. National Electoral Commission. https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/.

[ii] Martewicz, Maciej, and Anna Barteczko. 2025. “Poland Presidential Election: Trump-Backed. Karol Nawrocki Narrowly Wins Election.” Bloomberg, June 2, 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/polish-nationalist-moves-ahead-in-president-vote-new-poll-shows.

[iii] Sorgi, Giorgio, and Jan Cienski. 2024. “Poland Edges Closer to Unblocking Frozen EU Funds.” Politico, January 21, 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-edges-closer-unblock-frozen-eu-funds-donald-tusk-adam-bodnar-andrej-duda/.

[iv] Minder, Raphael. 2024. “Polish Ambassadors in Limbo as Donald Tusk and Andrzej Duda Tussle over Policy.” Financial Times, July 14, 2024. https://www.ft.com/content/e0d675fd-fc86-4037-8db8-ffd188c74bbd.

[v] Gera, Vanessa. 2025. “Poland’s Presidential Election Pits Pro-European Mayor Against Nationalist Conservative.” AP News, May 29, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/poland-presidential-election-nawrocki-trzaskowski-trump-mentzen-65809f2f278f7430cbdfe313e312e9f4.

[vi] Nawrocki, Karol (@NawrockiKn), “Ladies and Gentlemen, A difficult and at times brutal election campaign is behind us. Your votes have led to my election to the office of the President of the Republic of Poland.” X, June 2, 2025. https://x.com/NawrockiKn/status/1929584152438862039?t=SrZFEb4qPyIzR34geS7sSA&s=19.

[vii] Shamim, Syed. 2025. “Poland Election Results: Who Won, Who Lost, What’s Next?.” Al Jazeera, June 2, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/2/poland-election-results-who-won-who-lost-whats-next.

[viii] Moskwa, Wojciech, and Natalia Ojewska. 2025. “Warsaw Mayor Leads in Polish Presidential Vote, Exit Polls Show.” Bloomberg, June 1, 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/warsaw-mayor-leads-in-polish-presidential-vote-exit-polls-show.

[ix] Kość, Wojciech. 2025. “Skeletons in Nawrocki’s Closet Fail to Dent His Polish Presidential Bid.” Politico, May 30, 2025. https://www.politico.eu/article/karol-nawrocki-poland-election-accusations-polarization-rafal-trzaskowski/.

[x] Krzysztoszek, Andrzej, and Marco Monti. 2025. “Poland’s Tusk Survives Confidence Vote after Presidential Setback.” Euractiv, June 12, 2025. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/polands-tusk-survives-confidence-vote-after-presidential-setback/.

[xi] Henley, Jon. 2025. “Populist Nawrocki’s Triumph Threatens Poland’s Place at Europe’s Top Table.” The Guardian, June 3, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/02/poland-election-populist-nawrocki-triumph-threatens-place-at-europe-top-table.

[xii] Ruy, Daniel. 2025. “The Implications of Poland’s Presidential Election.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 9, 2025. https://www.csis.org/analysis/implications-polands-presidential-election.

[xiii] Associated Press. 2025. “Trump Ally Getting Elected in Poland Could Alter EU and Ukraine Policies.” Business Standard, June 2, 2025. https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/trump-ally-getting-elected-in-poland-could-alter-eu-and-ukraine-policies-125060200479_1.html.

[xiv] Simpson, Andrew. 2025. “Pro-Trump Candidate Wins Poland’s Presidential Election – A Bad Omen for the EU, Ukraine and Women.” The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/pro-trump-candidate-wins-polands-presidential-election-a-bad-omen-for-the-eu-ukraine-and-women-257617.

[xv] Wiener, Anna. 2025. “Nationalist Candidate Backed by Trump Wins Polish Presidency.” The Washington Post, June 2, 2025. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/01/polish-election-nationalist-right/.

[xvi] “On Poland’s Presidential Election” June 2, 2025. US Department of State. https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/06/on-polands-presidential-election/.

[xvii] Minder, Raphael. 2025. “German War Reparations Loom Large in Polish Election.” Financial Times, February 12, 2025. https://www.ft.com/content/417f04d3-c80e-4bd9-a318-9de2658218b6.