Indian Council of World Affairs

After crossing the stage of testing the intentions and seriousness of the new U.S. administration—particularly given the contradictory statements issued by American officials regarding negotiations and unrealistic, unattainable demands from the U.S. side—Iran has finally begun the process of negotiations in earnest. The first round of the talks, hosted by the Sultanate of Oman, highlighted the vast gap between the two sides in terms of negotiation expertise and steadfastness in holding their respective positions. While the Iranian side articulated its vision for the points of discussion unambiguously, the American negotiator, Steve Witkoff, and his team, failed to assert their views coherently, resorting instead to contradictory and unrealistic statements.  

Evidently, each side has sharpened the tools in its negotiation arsenal and organized its papers in preparation for the upcoming period. The U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, adhered to its usual strategy of pushing for a deal while hinting at the dire consequences of failure. Ahead of the negotiations, Trump stated, "I am in no hurry to resort to the military option," adding, "I believe Iran wants dialogue." Meanwhile, the White House warned of "costly American options" if a new agreement on Iran's nuclear program is not reached, emphasizing, however, that President Trump prefers to settle this issue through diplomacy. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed hope for "fruitful talks with Iran" and reliance on reaching a long-term peaceful solution. He urged European countries to consider activating the "snapback mechanism," which would automatically reimpose sanctions on Iran for "non-compliance with the nuclear agreement." This mechanism expires in October of this year, and Iran has previously warned that it may withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if the mechanism is triggered. The U.S. also seeks to include in the negotiation agenda a review of the Lausanne framework of the Iran Nuclear Deal, introducing amendments to certain provisions related to Iran's ballistic missile program, as well as Tehran's support for the militant groups in the region.  

Some members of Trump's team, influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates, have lobbied for a hardline anti-Iran approach. It is unlikely that the American envoy, Steve Witkoff, will yield to Netanyahu's pressure, given the significant friction between the two. Israeli government will conceivably use all available means to sabotage any agreement between Tehran and Washington, including sabotage operations inside Iran and assassinations of Iranian regime figures. Iranian Foreign Minister's warning on platform X echoes this thought when he said that Israel will seek to obstruct negotiations through false claims, or by carrying out sabotage operations and assassinations. 

During his recent visit to the U.S., the Israeli Prime Minister proposed an approach, stating that he and Trump "agree that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons. This can be achieved through an agreement, but only if it resembles the Libyan model." According to reports from the Hebrew newspaper ‘Times of Israel’, Netanyahu believes that Western countries led by the United States should dismantle and destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. In Netanyahu's view, this goal can be achieved diplomatically, but only if it follows the model of Libya's nuclear disarmament in 2003, when U.S. forces subsequently destroyed components of Libya's nuclear program.  

In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the historic nuclear agreement, despite being a key player in it. The agreement stipulated the easing of international sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program. Tehran adhered to the agreement for a year after Trump's withdrawal before gradually scaling back its commitments. Trump described the agreement at the time as "bad" because it was not permanent and did not address Iran's ballistic missile program, among other issues. As a result, he reimposed U.S. sanctions as part of a "maximum pressure" campaign aimed at forcing Iran to negotiate a new and expanded agreement.  

Retaliating to Trump's withdrawal from the agreement and reimposition of sanctions, Iran stopped adhering to the key commitments outlined in the deal. It has reinstalled thousands of centrifuges, violating the agreement's terms. It is worth noting that producing nuclear weapons requires uranium enriched to 90% purity, while the agreement allowed Iran to possess only 300 kg of uranium enriched to 3.67%. 

In March 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Iran possesses approximately 275 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. Theoretically, this quantity is enough to produce about six nuclear bombs if enriched further to 90%. American experts believe Iran could convert this amount into material suitable for one nuclear bomb within a week.

On the other side, Iran has rallied support from influential countries like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia through intense diplomatic efforts including visits by the Iranian Foreign Minister to Beijing and Moscow, and the reception of the Saudi Defense Minister in Tehran. Foreign Minister Araghchi affirmed that "all of Iran's military capabilities are defensive and will not threaten any country," adding that "halting nuclear industries is not up for debate." In a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart in Moscow, Araghchi stated, "Reaching an agreement with the U.S. is possible if Washington does not make unrealistic demands," emphasizing that "direct negotiations are currently unacceptable." 

Meanwhile, Ali Shamkhani, the political advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, tweeted on platform X: "Iranian negotiators have set out with full authority to reach a comprehensive agreement based on nine principles: seriousness, guarantees, balance, lifting sanctions, no Libya or UAE model, avoiding threats, speed, containing aggressors, and facilitating investment." He stressed that "Iran has come for consensus and balance, not surrender." Tehran rejects the Libyan model for resolving its nuclear program, despite American threats of resorting to military action if no agreement is reached.

Iran has also played on the sensitive chord of the American President. For the first time, the hardline faction in Iran has spoken of economic normalization with the U.S., as Shamkhani's outlined principles included facilitating investments. Until very recently, this was a red line for hardliners in Iran, who feared that American economic influence would strengthen moderates within the regime and undermine conservative control. This belief is reinforced by Iranian officials openly expressing their desire to normalize trade relations with the U.S., not limited to merely lifting sanctions and resuming trade with Europe and Asia. Some circles have promoted the possibility of investing Iran's frozen financial assets in the U.S. Treasury to purchase American equipment, attempting to make Washington salivate over the enormity of these sums. 

In an article published in ‘The Washington Post’, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that "American sanctions—not Iran's refusal—have deprived U.S. companies of opportunities worth billions of dollars in the Iranian economy." Iran is counting on President Donald Trump's need for investments to soften the U.S. stance on its nuclear program.  Washington, on the other hand, will work to exploit the weakness of the Iranian economy and Tehran's urgent need to lift sanctions amid fears of low oil prices that would be catastrophic for the Iranian people and could cause widespread protests against the regime.

Thus, after the rooster's dance to intimidate and frighten the opponent, the moment of truth has arrived for all parties to sit at the negotiating table.

*****

*****

*Dr. Mohamed Ali Chihi is Executive Director of the Global Institute of Strategic Research, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar and a Former Ambassador of Tunisia to France and Russia.