Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract- As the Global Coalition to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria marked a decade in September 2024, its efforts have given a blow to the group but the fight still continues. This paper sheds light on the decline, challenges and continued persistence of the group. 

INTRODUCTION 

September 2024 marked the 10th anniversary of the Global Coalition to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The coalition, comprising 82 countries (with Togo and the Maldives being the newest members this year) and including forces from five organisations, namely the European Union, Arab League, NATO, Interpol and the Community of Sahel-Saharan States, started its operations in 2014 in Iraq and Syria. It is the largest coalition in international history that remains committed to fighting ISIS anywhere in the world. [i] Members of the coalition met in September 2024, after which Iraq and the US (which leads the coalition) released a joint communiqué, announcing the winding up of ISIS operations in Iraq by September 2025. [ii] In this context, giving a brief background on its origins and ideology, this issue brief seeks to explain the group’s decline, the challenges that come along with it, the continued persistence and the coalition’s reaffirmation of efforts to counter it. 

Known for brutal acts, ISIS is a radical terrorist organisation that adheres to a strict Salafi-Jihadist ideology. [iii] Considered one of the most dangerous terrorist organisations, ISIS has claimed major attacks across the globe, including the November 2015 Paris attacks, the 2016 Orlando nightclub shootings in the US and the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter Bombings. Following a notable reduction in strength after losing control over its territories in Iraq and Syria, its operations have diminished significantly. Yet, it continues to uphold a considerable presence with its active affiliates, especially in parts of Africa and Afghanistan. 

Often viewed as a by-product of chaos and political instability, the organisation might not have come into existence without significant events, such as the 2003 Iraq War and the 2011 Arab Spring. [iv] During these pivotal events, the landscape of the Arab world was marked by disorder. Nations, including Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq and Syria, were witnessing demonstrations against oppressive governments, calling for freedom of expression and improved economic and living standards. The regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria attempted to stifle dissent, quickly escalating violence as various militias emerged fighting amongst themselves and the regime, leading to a civil war. Among these factions, ISIS emerged as the most powerful, making significant gains in 2014 by seizing key cities like Fallujah and Ramadi, including Mosul, the second-largest city in Iraq, as well as Raqqa and Aleppo, declaring the former as its capital in Syria. The group was also among the richest terrorist organisations at its zenith in 2014. Its primary revenue sources included looting, kidnapping, imposing taxes on the local population, human trafficking, the sale of valuable artefacts and external funding. The group also held significant oil fields in Iraq and Syria, with a considerable portion of its revenue generated from selling oil, even to the Syrian government. [v]

Embracing far-right ideology, the group adheres to a strict and puritanical interpretation of Islam and views the West as its adversary. It concentrates on combating other Muslim states, referring to them as Apostates of the Muslim world (who do not follow stringent and authentic Islamic practices and are influenced by Western practices), believing that targeting them is more crucial than confronting Western allies. The group also positions itself as the legitimate guardian of the Salafi-Wahabi legacy. [vi]

DECLINE, CHALLENGES AND PERSISTENCE 

Since its formation in September 2014, The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS has made considerable efforts to weaken the group. As a result, after 2017, the group experienced a significant decline. The forces of the international coalition, along with local armed groups, fought against the Islamic State group, resulting in the loss of its strongholds. By taking control of ISIS-held territories like the self-proclaimed ISIS capital Raqqa and Baghuz in eastern Syria, the coalition liberated thousands of people from the group’s brutal rule and also made rehabilitation efforts for them. [vii] Besides, the coalition targeted and removed the group leadership; for example, in 2019, the group’s notorious chief, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in a drone strike, along with other important leaders, which dwindled the group’s morale but has not stopped the group from functioning. [viii] Beyond the military campaign in Iraq and Syria, the coalition played a great role in weakening its financing and economic infrastructure; preventing the flow of foreign terrorist fighters across borders; supporting stabilisation and the restoration of essential public services in areas liberated from ISIS and countering the group’s online propaganda. [ix] Additionally, other factors, like lack of support from various tribesmen, have also contributed to its decline. [x]

The group’s decline presented several challenges. Although not as strong as before, the group remains active on social media platforms and continues to recruit, attract and influence people with its radical ideology. [xi] Another challenge is the reintegration and mainstreaming of the fighters and families, including women and children, into society. Some joined the caliphate willingly, while others were forced. Concerned about their ideological inclinations or the potential threat they could pose to society, many states have taken significant steps to address this issue. For example, the majority of individuals who have returned to the UK have undergone interviews conducted by security services to determine their experiences and the possibilities for successful resettlement. If a person has not engaged in criminal activities, or if there is no public interest in pursuing prosecution, they may be enrolled in a deradicalisation program, which can involve comprehensive mentoring and assistance from mental health professionals. [xii] Additionally, providing gainful employment is also key. Furthermore, the territories that were in control of the group are in dire need of reconstruction as significant damage has been done. In Iraq and Syria, there is a considerable population that is internally displaced, living in camps due to the civil war and the group’s terror and yet to return safely to their homes. [xiii]

It appears unlikely that the group will grow in size and strength as it once did, and it is undoubtedly in decline, but it remains active in some regions like West and Central Africa, Khorasan, Sahel, Mozambique, Somalia and East Asia, signalling persistence and continuing to pose a threat to global security. In March 2024, the group’s Khorasan affiliate claimed a deadly attack on the Crocus city hall in Moscow, Russia, killing 137 and injuring more than 140, reported BBC News. [xiv] A recent Washington Institute report says that since March 2023, ISIS affiliates have claimed more than 1000 attacks, out of which the West African affiliate claimed more than 400 attacks. [xv]  While attacks in Iraq and Syria have decreased significantly, they have not stopped entirely because the group remains active in parts of central and north-western Syria, mostly in remote areas, with sleeper cells killing both military and civilians. This signals that since the group lost lands in Iraq and Syria, it has strengthened its affiliates abroad and attempted to expand its virtual presence. [xvi] The weak governance and sectarian tensions in Iraq and Syria leave a vacuum that the terrorist group may seek to exploit, along with other non-state violent groups, resulting in increased attacks.

The joint announcement on 30 September by the Iraqi government and the Biden administration to wind up ISIS-related operations in Iraq within 12 months and the US troops staying in the country along with the coalition’s military mission operating in Syria to help combat the resurgence of ISIS till the end of the year 2026 signals a bilateral security partnership between the US-Iraq. It signifies a transition rather than a clear plan of withdrawing troops so as to stop the group from resurging. The coalition also reaffirmed supporting Iraq in its fight against ISIS, aiming to raise and implement more funds for the restructuring of the damaged areas and rehabilitation of the people affected by the brutal rule of the group. Condemning recent attacks in Asia and Europe, the members reaffirmed their commitment to fighting the group’s affiliates, which are active globally, by reiterating their dedication to engaging members and authorised partners while implementing comprehensive governmental strategies to dismantle ISIS international networks. This will be achieved by exchanging information through reliable and secure channels, obstructing their mobility and limiting their financial resources. [xvii]

Warning of more possible attacks this year, the US, thus, continues to maintain a considerable presence in Iraq and Syria with troops on the ground combating the possible resurgence of the terrorist group, although this could be a strategy to uphold its presence in the region. [xviii] It also remains to be seen what approach the new Trump administration takes in the ongoing fight against ISIS.

CONCLUSION

As a result of the extensive efforts of the Global Coalition aimed at defeating ISIS, the group has experienced a significant reduction since its peak in 2014 in its power and operations, along with the majority of its territory lost in Iraq and Syria. However, it still retains a virtual presence along with a few of its active affiliates who could try to make gains if not checked, albeit not like before, as evidenced by recent attacks. 

The challenge for the Global Coalition to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and its affiliates continues. It remains to be seen how the coalition would tackle it in light of recent reaffirmations to continue fighting the group and its affiliates not only in Iraq and Syria but also in Africa, Central Asia and Af-Pak region. Groups, such as ISIS, serve as a reminder that the threat of terrorism persists and will remain until substantial actions are taken by governments together.

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*Sugandhi, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

REFERENCES

[i] “The Global Coalition against Daesh | Home.” n.d. The Global Coalition against Daesh. https://theglobalcoalition.org/en/.

[ii]‌ “Joint Statement Announcing the Timeline for the End of the Military Mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq - United States Department of State.” 2024. United States Department of State. 2024. https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-announcing-the-timeline-for-the-end-of-the-military-mission-of-the-global-coalition-to-defeat-isis-in-iraq.

[iii] Salafi-Jihadism is an approach to jihadism that believes that pure Islamic laws should be followed, that is without any innovations like the Salafs (the early generations of Muslims). Terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS follow this approach and justify violence in the name of Jihad (religiously sanctioned warfare). Dar, Rashid, and Shadi Hamid. 2016. “Islamism, Salafism, and Jihadism: A Primer.” Brookings. July 15, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/islamism-salafism-and-jihadism-a-primer.

[iv] ‌Oosterveld, Willem Th, Willem Bloem, Nicholas Farnham, Barin Kayaoğlu, and Tim Sweijs. The rise and fall of ISIS: From evitability to inevitability. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, 2017.

[v] Laub, Zachary, and Jonathan Masters. "Islamic state in Iraq and greater Syria." The Council on Foreign Relations. June 12, 2014.

[vi] Wahhabism is a conservative movement within Islam's Sunni branch and advocates a return to a "purer" form of Islam, focusing on its origins and the absolute sovereignty of God. It is widely practiced in Saudi Arabia. Bunzel, Cole. "From paper state to caliphate: The ideology of the Islamic State." 2015.

[vii] "The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS - United States Department of State." 2021. United States Department of State. July 6, 2021. https://www.state.gov/the-global-coalition-to-defeat-isis/.

[viii] “The Global Coalition against Daesh.” 2024. The Global Coalition against Daesh. March 25, 2024. https://theglobalcoalition.org/en/failed-daesh-leadership/.

[ix]  “The Global Coalition against Daesh.” 2014. The Global Coalition against Daesh. 2014. https://theglobalcoalition.org/en/mission/.

[x]‌ Lia, Brynjar. "The Islamic State’s tribal policies in Syria and Iraq." Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal 6, no. 1-3 (2021): 32-51.

[xi] Gardner, Frank. 2024. “Islamic State Group Still a Danger, 10 Years Since Its Peak.” Bbc.com. BBC News. June 28, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv2g3gz08ylo.

[xii] ‌Reality Check. 2019. “Shamima Begum: How Do Countries Deal with People Returning from IS?” BBC News, February 15, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47252164.

[xiii] ‌ “Security Council: 12 Years of War, leaves 70 percent of Syrians Needing Aid | UN News.” 2023. News.un.org. January 25, 2023. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/01/1132837.

[xiv] Atkinson, Emily. 2024. “Moscow Attack: Putin Says All Four Suspects Arrested after 133 Killed at Concert Hall.” Www.bbc.com, March 23, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68646380.

[xv] "One Year of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map." n.d. The Washington Institute. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/one-year-islamic-state-worldwide-activity-map.

[xvi]‌‌ Jazeera, Al. 2024. “US Says ISIL Trying ‘to Reconstitute’ amid Uptick in Syria, Iraq Attacks.” Al Jazeera. July 17, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/17/us-says-isil-trying-to-to-reconstitute-amid-uptick-in-syria-iraq-attacks.

‌[xvii]‌ “Joint Communiqué by Ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS - United States Department of State.” 2024. United States Department of State. September 30, 2024. https://www.state.gov/joint-communique-by-ministers-of-the-global-coalition-to-defeat-isis-4/.

[xviii] Jazeera, Al. 2024. “US Says It Killed 37 ISIL, Hurras Al-Din Fighters in Separate Syria Attacks.” Al Jazeera. September 29, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/29/us-says-it-killed-37-isil-hurras-al-din-fighters-in-separate-syria-attacks.