Indian Council of World Affairs

Human activities, over the years, have led to a rapid degradation of the earth’s environment, eventually leading to an immense impact on climate change. Owing to this spiralling environmental degradation, the statistics of people getting uprooted and facing displacement are constantly gaining momentum. It is estimated that the world will see a staggering 25 million to 1 billion ‘Environmental Displaced Persons’ or EDP in the upcoming future.^[i]  This will not only impact the international relations and geo-political ties between nations but will also lead to new issues and conflicts while dealing with this emerging problem. 

This paper aims to explore issues relating to climate-induced migration and displacement, the varying impact of climate change, and how it is being attempted to handle. 

Defining the problem 

In 1976, Lester Brown first introduced the term “environmental refugees''. In 1985, Essam El-Hinnawi used the term and described these refugees as people who were compelled to depart, either permanently or temporarily, from their native lands due to environmental disasters which not only has put their lives at risk but also degraded their quality of life.^[ii] Various terms, like climate refugee, environmental displacee, climate migrant, and environmental migrant have been coined to refer to the people displaced by climate-induced disasters.^[iii] However, these terms face scrutiny, as the concept of climate-induced migration is relatively new. Climate-induced migrants do not fit into the conventional refugee status, leading to considerable debate regarding their status. In international discourse, there is also a differentiation between the treatment of migrants and refugees on account of the varying obligations that they put on the destination countries. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has pointed out how the term ‘refugee’ needs to have an expanding definition since these environmental migrants do not get recognised as refugees in the conventional sense which makes their relocation and habitation difficult. 

Differential impacts of climate change 

Climate change affects every region differently based on several factors ranging from low adaptability to geographical features like low-lying terrains. Regions with the latter feature are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. 

In this context, migration will, eventually, become an adaptation strategy in the face of climate change impacts. The affected regions will also see substantial movement of the population as a response to environmental disasters. The World Bank’s Groundswell Report of 2021 estimates that by 2050, 216 million people will face internal migration within their country, with the majority of these migrations happening in sub-Saharan Africa.^[iv]

NASA has also reported that by 2050, significant parts of the Gulf will become inhospitable due to the rise in global temperature.^[v] The Arctic is also an example of a region that will be heavily impacted by the rise in temperatures. Global warming, which will lead to a rise in water levels, will also have immense ramifications for low-lying regions and small islands such as the Pacific islands or the Solomon islands. 

Countries like India, Bangladesh, and China along with numerous countries from the Southeast Asian region will also be impacted by the rising sea levels. Seventeen percent of Bangladesh is predicted to be threatened by submergence due to the rising sea levels which will displace a vast population by 2050.^[vi]  According to some estimates, India, by 2050, as a result of climate change, may also face substantial migration of up to 45 million people.^[vii] India, being a vast country with varied geographical features, may also face differential impacts induced due to climate change. These can range from land degradation, coastal floods, to desertification.^[viii]

The effect of climate change and the rise in global temperature leading to the rise in sea levels will be experienced all over the world. The consequences, despite being unevenly distributed, will also aggravate the conditions for the marginalised and the poor sections of the population who face greater risk due to low resources at their disposal. 

Existing global response from international organisations 

International organisations have been formulating policies and devising mitigation strategies to help navigate and prepare better for this major problem. This portion of the paper will elaborate on some of them.  

The Cancun Adaptation Framework of 2010 took an important step in addressing displacement, relocation, and migration as a result of climate change.^[ix] The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) has been developed by several countries with the support of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It comprises various strategies and adaptation plans in dealing with climate change.^[x] The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is another organisation working on climate change, migration and displacement. UNEP along with its Copenhagen Climate Centre has a Nationally Determined Contribution Action Project (NDC). NDC focuses on the mitigation strategies related to climate change and signifies the individual effort by every state to work towards climate change and reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. UNEP strongly recommends the integration of the displaced population in the Nationally Determined Contribution Action Project as well as in the National Adaptation Plan. It also recommends meeting the adaptation strategies for the population at risk. This is in line with the self-reliance objectives of the Global Compact on Migration and Global Compact on Refugees for the displaced population and the host countries.^[xi] 

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has also been working towards providing support to the displaced population and the refugees due to the ill-effects of climate change. Both UNHCR and the IOM emphasise the role of states in providing protection to environmental refugees and coming up with coping strategies to deal better with them.^[xii]

In 2012, the Nansen Initiative on Disaster-Induced Cross-Border Displacement was introduced.^[xiii] It was a multi-governmental initiative with Norway and Switzerland being at the forefront.^[xiv] In a consultation that took place in Geneva in 2015, 109 states promoted the agenda for the displaced people.^[xv]

Following the Nansen Initiative, the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD) was launched in 2016 to help reinforce the protection for the displaced people.^[xvi] UNHCR, PDD and IOM with several other organisations helped in the execution of directions suggested by the Nansen Initiative. These three organisations are also the founding members of the Task Force Displacement or TFD.^[xvii] The TFD emerged in 2015 at COP21 and has worked in three phases.^[xviii]

National Approaches 

While international organisations have been highlighting the need for adaptation plans and mitigation strategies to cope with climate-induced migration and displacement, countries are increasingly developing strategies to minimise climate risks for their vulnerable population. Country-wise approaches take into account their unique positions and the vulnerabilities specific for those regions and its populations. 

Bilateral level agreements on climate migrants 

Australia and New Zealand are two examples that are working towards addressing the challenges of climate-induced migration through bilateral agreements. Both countries will continue to face an increasing number of climate refugees from the Pacific islands which are under the threat of submergence. In this context, Australia and Tuvalu recently signed a treaty on the present threat of climate change.^[xix] The treaty is groundbreaking as it is the first one signed between two states regarding climate-induced migration. Australia, according to this treaty, will aid the people of Tuvalu by giving them migration access and will allow them to settle there permanently.^[xx] New Zealand has also come up with a framework for taking in Pacific Island migrants. Under its programme — Pacific Access Category (PAC), it has a reserved quota for permanent residency for migrants from these climate-threatened islands.^[xxi]

Conclusion 

Environmental disasters or even gradual but significant environmental changes have been one of the prime reasons for human migration for millennia. Humankind has a history of dealing with this issue. However, in the present times, this issue has acquired new salience due to the fear of highly adverse environmental impacts that may occur in the near future due to climate change. The issue of environmental migration and displacement is a multifaceted issue with numerous factors playing a role. These factors could be related to social, economic and even security issues. The international community will also need to traverse through these factors that weave into environmental migration. Due to the complexity of this issue, comprehensive global response and collaboration are the need of the hour. Various initiatives are being taken by nation-states at both national and international levels to deal with the increasing onslaught of displacement and migration happening as a result of climate change. This reflects a growing awareness of climate displacement as an issue of global concern. Further research is needed to enhance the adaptation and mitigation strategies at local, regional and international levels.

*****

*Shreya Singh, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

^[i] Chan, M., & Bhandal, G. (n.d.). Migration and Climate Change. IPCC. Retrieved January 16, 2024, from https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php?id=5866

^[ii] The concept of 'climate refugee' - Towards a possible definition. (n.d.). European Parliament. Retrieved January 16, 2024, from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/621893/EPRS_BRI(2018)621893_EN.pdf

^[iii] Borges, Isabel. (2018). Environmental Change, Forced Displacement and International Law: From Legal Protection Gaps to Protection Solutions. 10.4324/9780203712023.

^[iv] Displaced populations | NDC Action Project. (n.d.). UN Environment Programme. Retrieved January 18, 2024, from https://www.unep.org/ndc/action-areas/displaced-populations

^[v]Keynoush, B. (2023, January 13). Climate-induced migration in the GCC states: A looming challenge. Middle East Institute. Retrieved January 16, 2024, from https://www.mei.edu/publications/climate-induced-migration-gcc-states-looming-challenge 

^[vi] Climate refugees – the world's forgotten victims | World Economic Forum. (2021, June 18). The World Economic Forum. Retrieved February 4, 2024, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-world-s-forgotten-victims/

^[vii] Krishnan, M. (2023, April 19). India: Migration from climate change getting worse – DW – 04/19/2023. DW. Retrieved February 12, 2024, from https://www.dw.com/en/india-migration-from-climate-change-getting-worse/a-65369043

^[viii] Balaji, M. (2023, July 4). Climate-induced displacement: A new normal for India's vulnerable communities. Climate Connection. Retrieved February 13, 2024, from https://climateconnection.org.in/updates/climate-induced-displacement-new-normal-indias-vulnerable-communities

^[ix] Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2011, March 15). Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved January 18, 2024, from https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf

^[x] National Adaptation Programmes of Action. (n.d.). UNFCCC. Retrieved February 13, 2024, from https://unfccc.int/topics/resilience/workstreams/national-adaptation-programmes-of-action/introduction

^[xi] UN agencies call for climate change policies to consider displaced persons. (2023, August 30). UN Environment Programme. Retrieved February 18, 2024, from https://www.unep.org/technical-highlight/un-agencies-call-climate-change-policies-consider-displaced-persons

^[xii] UNHCR and IOM call for improved safeguards for the displaced on the frontlines of climate emergency. (2021, February 4). UNHCR. Retrieved January 18, 2024, from https://www.unhcr.org/in/news/news-releases/unhcr-and-iom-call-improved-safeguards-displaced-frontlines-climate-emergency

^[xiii] Agenda for the protection of cross-border displaced persons in the context of disasters and climate change volume I. (n.d.). Platform on Disaster Displacement. Retrieved February 9, 2024, from https://disasterdisplacement.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EN_Protection_Agenda_Volume_I_-low_res.pdf

^[xiv] Weerasinghe, S. (n.d.). What We Know About Climate Change and Migration. Center for Migration Studies. Retrieved January 19, 2024, from https://cmsny.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/What-We-Know-About-Climate-Change-and-Migration-Final.pdf

^[xv] UNHCR and IOM call for improved safeguards for the displaced on the frontlines of climate emergency. (2021, February 4). UNHCR. Retrieved January 19, 2024, from https://www.unhcr.org/in/news/news-releases/unhcr-and-iom-call-improved-safeguards-displaced-frontlines-climate-emergency

^[xvi] The Forgotten Victims of Climate Change: Climate Migrants without Refugee Status – Fordham Environmental Law Review. (2023, April 30). Fordham Environmental Law Review. Retrieved February 10, 2024, from https://fordhamlawelr.org/?p=1684

^[xvii] UNHCR and IOM call for improved safeguards for the displaced on the frontlines of climate emergency. (2021, February 4). UNHCR. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://www.unhcr.org/in/news/news-releases/unhcr-and-iom-call-improved-safeguards-displaced-frontlines-climate-emergency

^[xviii] Task Force on Displacement. (n.d.). UNFCCC. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/constituted-bodies/WIMExCom/TFD#Phase-3-

^[xix] Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty | Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. (n.d.). Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Retrieved January 18, 2024, from https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/tuvalu/australia-tuvalu-falepili-union-treaty

^[xx] Mcadam, J. (2023, November 13). Australia's offer of climate migration to Tuvalu residents is ground-breaking - and could be a lifeline across the Pacific. UNSW Sydney. Retrieved January 18, 2024, from https://www.unsw.edu.au/news/2023/11/australia-s-offer-of-climate-migration-to-tuvalu-residents-is-gr#:~:text=LinkedIn-,Australia's%20offer%20of%20climate%20migration%20to%20Tuvalu%20residents%20is%20groundbreaking,change%20as%20a%20driving%20rationale.

^[xxi] (n.d.). Climate Change Policies and Migration Issues of New Zealand and Australia. Retrieved February 5, 2024, from https://www.spf.org/en/global-data/opri/perspectives/prsp_002_2019_higuchi_en.pdf

Additional References

Aleinikoff, T. A. (2022, July 25). The responsibility of the international community in situations of mobility due to environmental events. Zolberg Institute on Migration and Mobility. Retrieved January 11, 2024, from https://zolberginstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Aleinikoff-Alexander-Martin-Susan-Environmental-Mobility-Zolberg.pdf

Baldwin, Christiane Fröhlich & Delf Rothe (2019): From

climate migration to anthropocene mobilities: shifting the debate, Mobilities, DOI:

10.1080/17450101.2019.1620510

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/17450101.2019.1620510

Published online: 26 May 2019.

Basu, A., & Chaudhury, R. (2022, December 19). Climate change fuelling climate migration. Retrieved January 11, 2024, from https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/climate-change-fueling-climate-migration

Besthorn, Fred & Meyer, Erika. (2019). Environmentally Displaced Persons. Critical Social Work. 11. 10.22329/csw.v11i3.5836.

Chakraborty, D. (2024, January 7). From island to mainland: How an indigenous tribe in Panama became America's first climate refugees. ThePrint. Retrieved January 15, 2024, from https://theprint.in/environment/among-1st-climate-refugees-in-americas-how-an-indigenous-community-in-panama-secured-its-own-future/1913657/

Conflict and Climate. (2022, July 12). UNFCCC. Retrieved January 16, 2024, from https://unfccc.int/news/conflict-and-climate

Chan, M., & Bhandal, G. (n.d.). Migration and Climate Change. IPCC. Retrieved January 11, 2024, from https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php?id=5866

International Organization for Migration. (n.d.). Climate change and future human mobility. IOM Emergency Manual. Retrieved January 11, 2024, from https://emergencymanual.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1956/files/2023-03/iom_global_data_institute_thematic_brief_1_evidence_summary_on_climate_change_and_the_future_of_human_mobility.pdf

Tastan, N. (2023, September 28). Global warming turns millions into climate migrants. Anadolu Ajansı. Retrieved January 11, 2024, from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/global-warming-turns-millions-into-climate-migrants/3002795

10 countries at risk of climate disaster. (2023, March 20). International Rescue Committee. Retrieved January 15, 2024, from https://www.rescue.org/article/10-countries-risk-climate-disaster

Weerasinghe, S. (n.d.). What We Know About Climate Change and Migration. Center for Migration Studies. Retrieved January 18, 2024, from https://cmsny.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/What-We-Know-About-Climate-Change-and-Migration-Final.pdf

McLeman, R., & Gemenne, F. (n.d.). Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration. Routledge. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://www.routledge.com/Routledge-Handbook-of-Environmental-Displacement-and-Migration/McLeman-Gemenne/p/book/9780367521509

W. Neil Adger, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Colette Mortreux. 19 Mar 2018, Mobility, displacement and migration, and their interactions with vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risks from: Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration Routledge Accessed on: 20 Jan 2024 https://www.routledgehandbooks.com/doi/10.4324/9781315638843-3

Kita, Stern Mwakalimi and Clionadh Raleigh , "Environmental migration and international political security" , in Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration ed. Robert McLeman and François Gemenne (Abingdon: Routledge, 19 Mar 2018 ), accessed 20 Jan 2024 , Routledge Handbooks Online.

McLeman, Robert and François Gemenne , "Platform on Disaster Displacement, follow-up to the Nansen Initiative" , in Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration ed. Robert McLeman and François Gemenne (Abingdon: Routledge, 19 Mar 2018 ), accessed 20 Jan 2024 , Routledge Handbooks Online.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). (n.d.). UNFCCC. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions

-ndcs

Qing Han, Rupesh Kumar, Amit Kumar,

Climate change and human migration: Perspectives for environmentally sustainable societies,

Journal of Geochemical Exploration,

Volume 256, 2024, 107352, ISSN 0375-6742,

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2023.107352.

(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0375674223001991)