Prabowo Subianto’s official visit to China and Japan in early April is the first time that the President-elect of Indonesia has before assuming office. At the outset, the two diplomatic engagements were meant to strengthen bilateral relations, but the President-elect’s visit is seen as significant as Subianto is Defence Minster until he assumes office in October 2024 as the President, succeeding current President, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.
Thus, the visits to both China and Japan by Prabowo Subianto are to be seen as a diplomatic engagement by him in his capacity as Defence Minister but the visit is being accorded significance and some have dubbed it as a ‘major diplomatic coup’,[i] as the same was seen as signalling the potential direction of his administration once he takes office. At the same time, visiting both China and Japan has been interpreted as balancing Indonesia’s external engagement.[ii]
While balancing the two leading economies of eastern Asia may have been by design, Subianto’s engagement with China has been on the agenda of his Ministry “since the end of 2023 or early 2024”.[iii] It was in the midst of his three-day visit to China on March 31 that Japan announced that Subianto would be “swinging by”[iv] Japan for two days beginning April 2.
In his interactions in both countries, Prabowo Subianto expressed his desire to “further strengthen defence cooperation”[v] and increase collaboration in the defence sector.[vi] However, Chinese Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun had gone on record to say that Beijing was willing to work with the Indonesian military to consolidate their strategic trust, promote joint exercises and training, and take “practical cooperation to a new level”.[vii] On the other hand, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida underlined that the two countries can “enhance cooperation as partners who share basic values and principles”.[viii]
While the statements emanating from the visits expressed cordial ties both in the near future and post-Prabowo Subianto’s elevation as President in October, the underlying tensions between the two East Asian economic giants are evident. What is also crucial is that the geo-strategic environment in the larger region has the potential to shape the security landscape in both Southeast and East Asia. It is for this very reason that the archipelago country, which acts as the principal link between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, gains importance. Indonesia not only traves three time zones but also has the all-important sea lanes of communications in this part of the world traversing its waters thus, making the country the focal point in the evolving Indo-Pacific strategic space as well as in shaping the future trajectory of the global economy.
Presidential Polls: Brickbats and Bickering
Prabowo Subianto’s journey to the presidency has been a tumultuous one. In his two previous attempts, he lost the race to the current incumbent President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo. In his third attempt, Prabowo Subianto was successful in the company of his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is the son of Jokowi and the current Mayor of the central Javan city of Surakarta. The duo’s victory, even before the official declaration, has been subject to criticism.
The opposing candidates had resorted to legal remedy as they were of the view that the election process was disrupted by the current government in favour of Prabowo-Gibran’s candidature. It was in this light that there was a call made for re-election and for the Prabowo-Gibran duo to be debarred from re-contesting the elections. However, the Constitutional Court on April 22, 2024, rejected the election-related petition as there was “no evidence of systematic fraud and presidential ‘meddling’, nor that state bodies, regional officials and social assistance had been mobilised to sway polls in the world's third-largest democracy”.[ix]
The trajectory of Indonesia post-October is of significance. This is so as the role that this archipelago nation in shaping the Indo-Pacific landscape will be critical. For this nation, its concerns would be in balancing its ties with all its external partners beginning with China, Japan and the United States. It would have for this very reason that China’s CCTV has quoted Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto saying that he “wishes to continue President Joko’s policy of friendship with China”, as quoted by China's CCTV.[x]
It is to be noted that China has portrayed the visit as a “diplomatic coup”, and the same is being reflected by the selective quotes of the visit by CCTV. However, what has not been lost is the signal from Indonesia that neither domestic politics nor a change in administration would alter the nation’s external ties. What was left unsaid was Jokowi’s middle power strategy, which can be considered to be one of the hallmarks of his administration. Jokowi had said as early as 2015 that there is a need for new global order that would take into consideration the concerns of new emerging (economic) powers.[xi] In all probability, it can be expected that Subianto’s administration would continue with the policy approach of his predecessor of both engaging all of Indonesia’s external partners on an equal footing as well as pursuing a policy at a global state that takes into account the concerns of emerging powers like Indonesia.
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*Dr. Sripathi Narayanan, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
[i] Resty Woro Yuniar, “Indonesia’s Prabowo scores ‘major diplomatic coup’ with China, Japan visits in signal of future policy direction” South Chian Morning Post, April 4, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3257764/indonesias-prabowo-scores-major-diplomatic-coup-china-japan-visits-signal-future-policy-direction, accessed on April 9, 2024.
[ii] Indonesia's Prabowo visits Japan for balance after his China trip, Nikki Asia, April 3, 2024,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indonesia-s-Prabowo-visits-Japan-for-balance-after-his-China-trip, accessed on April 12, 2024.
[iii] Two visits, different perspectives: Prabowo’s landmark trips abroad as Indonesia president-elect raise eyebrows, Channel News Asia, April 3, 2024, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-prabowo-subianto-president-elect-visits-china-japan-foreign-policy-diplomacy-southeast-asia-4239046, accessed on April 4, 2024.
[iv] Two visits, different perspectives: Prabowo’s landmark trips abroad as Indonesia president-elect raise eyebrows, Channel News Asia, April 3, 2024, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-prabowo-subianto-president-elect-visits-china-japan-foreign-policy-diplomacy-southeast-asia-4239046, accessed on April 4, 2024.
[v] Indonesia's Prabowo, China's Dong Jun discuses defense cooperation, Antara News, April 3, 2024, https://en.antaranews.com/news/309951/indonesias-prabowo-chinas-dong-jun-discusse-defense-cooperation, accessed on April 4, 2024.
[vi] Kishida and Prabowo agree to strengthen Japan-Indonesia ties, Japan Times, April 3, 2024, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/04/03/japan/politics/kishida-talks-with-indonesian-president-elect/, accessed on April 4, 2024.
[vii] Closing his visit to China, Minister of Defense Prabowo paid a working visit to the Minister of Defense of China
Wednesday, Ministry of Defence, Republic of Indonesia April 3, 2024, https://www.kemhan.go.id/2024/04/03/tutup-lawatan-ke-china-menhan-prabowo-melakukan-kunjungan-kerja-kepada-menhan-china.html, accessed on April 25, 2024.
[viii] Minister of Defense Prabowo Meets Japanese PM in Tokyo, Discusses Increasing Collaboration, Ministry of Defence, Republic of Indonesia April 3, 2024, https://www.kemhan.go.id/2024/04/03/menhan-prabowo-temui-pm-jepang-di-tokyo-bahas-peningkatan-kolaborasi.html, accessed on April 25, 2024.
[ix] Indonesia court rejects election challenges, upholds Prabowo's win, Reuters, April 22, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-court-rejects-first-two-petitions-seeking-election-re-run-2024-04-22/, accessed on April 26, 2024.
[x] Prabowo promises close ties with China in meeting with Xi, Jakarta Post, April 2, 2024, https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2024/04/02/prabowo-promises-close-ties-with-china-in-meeting-with-xi.html, accessed on April 25, 2024.
[xi] Talking Points from the 2015 Asia-Africa Conference in Jakarta, Nippon.com, May 29, 2015
https://www.nippon.com/en/column/g00280/, accessed on May 3, 2024.