Introduction
On 10 April 2024, South Korea held general elections for their 22nd National Assembly (Kuk Hoe) to pick 300 parliamentarians for the next four years. For the National Assembly elections, South Korea utilises a mixed-member Proportional Representation (PR) system enacted in 2020.[1] Out of the 300 parliament seats that went for voting, 254 directly represent a district, and the rest of the 46 were proportional representatives.[2] Under this system, voters cast two ballots: one for their local district and another for a political party.[3] The proportion of votes received by each party is used to allocate the 46 seats and is meant to ensure better representation for smaller parties.[4]
The election system for the National Assembly in South Korea is different from their Presidential election process, which adheres to “first past the post,” and the voters directly choose their President from the contesting parties. In March 2022, in a tightly contested election, the voters of South Korea elected Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party (PPP) as their President for a five-year single term, ousting the Democratic Party (DP) from its ruling Presidential post and bringing back a conservative leader after a gap of five years. However, the Parliament was dominated by the Democratic Party as in the last general election for the 21st National Assembly in 2020, the DP, then known as the Minjoo Party, had secured 180 (163+17) seats and the PPP, which was then known as the United Future Party had won 103 (84+19) seats.[5]
Source: National Election Commission
2024 National Assembly Election Outcome
The voting results of the 22nd National Assembly concluded with a repeat victory for the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), securing 161 out of the 254 directly contested seats. In comparison, the People Power Party (PPP) won only 90 seats.[6] The remaining three seats out of the 254 directly contested seats were evenly distributed[7] between the Saemirae Party,[8] the New Reform Party, and the Jinbo Party.[9] The voter turnout was 67 per cent, which is the highest in 32 years.
Table 1: 2024 National Assembly Elections – Directly Contested
Party |
Seats won out of 254 |
Democratic Party |
161 |
People Power Party |
90 |
New Reform Party |
1 |
Saemirae Party |
1 |
Jinbo Party |
1 |
Source: National Election Commission
Table 2: 2024 National Assembly Elections – Proportional Representation
Party |
Seats won out of 46 |
Democratic United Party |
14 |
People Future Party |
18 |
New Reform Party |
2 |
Rebuilding Korea Party |
12 |
Source: National Election Commission
Of the 46 seats reserved for proportional representation, the DP secured an additional 14 seats through its satellite party, the Democratic United, whereas the PPP secured another 18 seats through its satellite party, the People Future. Thus, the DP retained the majority for the 22nd National Assembly with 175 seats, while the PPP had a total of 108 seats.
Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the DP, is seen as the traditional liberal presidential candidate. He had contested and lost narrowly against Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 Presidential elections.[10] Lee Jae-myung has broad allegations of corruption, for which even the DP-led opposition National Assembly voted to lift his immunity to be arrested in September 2023.[11] The Opposition leader was still attending court hearings against charges connected to the corruption scandal on the eve of the 22nd National Assembly elections.[12]
The Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), led by former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, who is known for his anti-PPP stance, won 12 seats through proportional representation alone. Cho Kuk, was the Minister of Justice appointed by the Moon Jae-in administration in 2019.[13] Cho Kuk was forced to resign as the Justice Minister and sentenced in 2023 to two years of imprisonment on charges of creating fake credentials to get his children enroled in prestigious schools.[14]
Other minority and independent parties won a combined five seats,[15] specifically the New Reform Party (1 directly contested + two proportional representation seats), the Saemirae Party (one directly contested seat), and the Jinbo Party (one directly contested seat).[16] All these parties are considered to be critical of the current Yoon government and the PPP. This means that the DP, in the most likely scenarios, will have the additional support of the smaller parties which have 17 seats in all when it comes to opposing certain legislation being pushed by the PPP. Therefore, in practice, DP can be considered to have 192 (175+17) seats out of 300, which is eight short of the two-thirds majority of 200 seats. With this majority, there are some reports that the DP and RKP leaders could be tempted to move for impeachment at the earliest to oust President Yoon instead of waiting for the next Presidential election cycle in 2027.
In principle, there are still three years remaining in the single-term tenure of President Yoon Suk-yeol, during which he will face this bolstered opposition-led majority in the National Assembly. The incoming 22nd National Assembly, with its newly elected 300 parliamentarians, will begin its term on 30 May 2024.
Source: National Election Commission
In the recent past, since the 2016 general elections for the National Assembly, South Korea has been witnessing increasing gains by the DP in terms of the number of seats in the Parliament. The 2016 legislative election results gave the DP, then called the Minjoo Party, a slim margin of one seat (123 to 122) over the then conservative-ruling Presidential party Saenuri.[17] This result was hence further improved upon by the DP in the 2020 National Assembly elections, as it won 180 seats (163+17),[18] and now, for the third consecutive time, a majority of 175 (161+14) seats in the 2024 National Assembly election.
Source: National Election Commission
Impact of an Opposition-led National Assembly
As the Democratic Party has 175 seats, the ruling PPP, with 108 seats, is bound to face a strong opposition to legislations that are tabled in the 22nd National Assembly. It is also conceivable that the remaining 17 members of the 300 would choose to side with the DP to derail the functioning of the Yoon government. With the DP holding the majority since 2020 and the PPP coming into presidency in 2022, as of January 2024, the 21st National Assembly had only 29.2 per cent of its legislation enacted, which was significantly less than the 61.4 per cent rate under the previous Moon government.[19] Therefore, as DP holds the majority yet again in 2024, the rate of passage of bills is most likely to become even lesser during the remaining three years of President Yoon’s term, which ends in 2027.
It is most likely that the DP-led opposition will continue to press issues surrounding the President’s wife such as the investigation into allegations that the first lady was involved in stock price manipulation between 2009-2012.[20] There will also likely be a push for a compromise regarding the medical school enrolment hike.[21] There is also a demand from RKP leader Cho Kuk to initiate a special probe in the Assembly into allegations against the Presidential Office for accusations of inappropriately interfering with a military investigation into last year's death of a young Marine who was swept away by heavy currents while on a search operation for downpour victims.[22] This also means that President Yoon Suk-yeol will possibly continue using his veto powers against the opposition bills, which he exercised over nine times in the last two years.[23] Meanwhile, Prime Minister Han Duk-soo, as the leader of the PPP accepted responsibility for the recent defeat in the 2024 Parliamentary election and tendered his resignation along with other presidential staff/advisors, which could lead to a reshuffle of the Cabinet.[24] The President will now have to give preference to appointing consensus members from his party who can undertake measures that the public considers a priority. Some of these issues are regarding housing redevelopment projects,[25] major infrastructure projects,[26] rising inflation and soaring prices.[27]
Implication for Foreign Policy
In terms of the impact of the election outcome on South Korea’s foreign policy, the DP-led opposition will vocalise more against the intensification of defence engagements with the US and Japan. The DP will look at reviving wartime forced labour compensation as the ruling PPP continues on its path towards reconciliation of ties through a “future-oriented approach” with Japan.[28] With the establishment of diplomatic ties through the Treaty on Basic Relations with Japan signed in 1965 approaching its 60th anniversary in 2025,[29] there have been signals from the Yoon Suk-yeol Government that they are willing to sign a new joint declaration in the upcoming year, which would also build on the previous 1998 Joint Declaration.[30] The opposition led by DP will take this opportunity to put pressure on the government on wartime forced labour compensation as well as regarding the disputed territories of Dokdo/Takeshima islands between South Korea and Japan.
It is important to note that the opposition DP had majority even in the previous National Assembly with 180 seats, and the ruling PPP with 103 seats under President Yoon through his statutory powers was still undertaking strategic foreign policy initiatives of resetting ties with Japan, doubling down on its alliance with the US, and expressed no interest to engage North Korea through dialogues similar to the ones organised under the previous administration under Moon Jae-in. The opposition DP has historically advocated for engagement and diplomacy with North Korea to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula and work towards denuclearisation and peace. The Korean Peninsula Peace Initiative[31] to achieve a nuclear weapons-free, peaceful and prosperous Korean Peninsula which was launched by the former President Moon in 2017 has been the primary agenda for the opposition DP.[32]
As Pyongyang has already declared Seoul a “primary enemy state” and “invariable principle enemy” while renouncing national reunification, there could be focus on issue of security of the ROK and its response.[33] With the increasing number of ballistic missile test provocations, military technology advancements and the increasing alignment between North Korea and Russia, especially after the war in Ukraine, the DP is most likely to advocate its core ideological tenets of peaceful dialogue with North Korea and avoiding any involvement in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.[34] In addition, the DP leader, Lee Jae-myung, had also stated during the recent election campaign that South Korea should not involve itself in the China-Taiwan tensions.[35] The DP leader had also blamed the current Yoon administration’s policy of deeper engagement with Washington and Tokyo for offsetting South Korea’s bilateral trade in China’s favour.[36]
Way Forward
With domestic issues becoming harder to pursue as the opposition members may block any bill that President Yoon pushes, and vice versa, the many special probes related to domestic issues that the opposition could table would likely be vetoed by the President. In the foreign policy space, the only alternative for the PPP government would be to work through Presidential statutory powers. This however would require the full support of the PPP to President Yoon.
The upcoming 22nd National Assembly, convening on 30 May 2024, will witness a great deal of partisanship, and the future of President Yoon will depend upon his ability to find compromises within his own party as well as with the opposition to enact some of his policy agenda.
*****
*Dr Tunchinmang Langel, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[1] Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), 2020, “How Does South Korea’s New Election System Work?”, April 15, 2020, https://keia.org/the-peninsula/how-does-south-koreas-new-election-system-work/ (Accessed 15 April 2024)
[2] Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), 2024, “A Guide to South Korea’s 2024 National Assembly Election”, April 9, 2024, https://keia.org/the-peninsula/a-guide-to-south-koreas-2024-national-assembly-election/ (Accessed 15 April 2024)
[3] Kaitlyn King & Natalia Slavney, 2024, “South Korea’s 2024 Legislative Election Primer”, Stimson, April 4, 2024, https://www.stimson.org/2024/south-koreas-2024-legislative-election-primer/ (Accessed 15 April 2024)
[4] AlJazeera, 2024, “South Korea holds parliamentary elections: All you need to know”, April 9, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/9/south-korea-holds-parliamentary-elections-all-you-need-to-know (Accessed 15 April 2024)
[5] Justin McCurry, 2020, “South Korea's ruling party wins election landslide amid coronavirus outbreak”, The Guardian, April 16, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/south-koreas-ruling-party-wins-election-landslide-amid-coronavirus-outbreak (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[6] Kim Eun-jung, 2024, “DP wins resounding majority in crushing defeat for PPP”, Yonhap News Agency, April 11, 2024, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240411006300315 (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[7] Arirang News, 2024, “Results analysis of 2024 General Election”, April 11, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTfWDFe6CoA&ab_channel=ArirangNews (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[8] Lee Hyo-jin, 2024, “Main opposition secures large majority in elections, crushes ruling party”, April 12, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_372467.html (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[9] Kwak Yeon-soo, 2024, “Reform Party, Saemirae Party struggle to impress voters”, March 8, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_370218.html (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[10] Sue Mi Terry, 2024, “South Korea’s Opposition Parties’ Win: What It Means”, CFR, April 11, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/south-koreas-opposition-parties-win-what-it-means (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[11] Kim Tong-hyung, 2023, “South Korean court denies arrest warrant for opposition leader Lee in corruption allegations”, AP News, September 27, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-opposition-leader-lee-arrest-corruption-a2788076d0e6049d9cceffed939a104c (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[12] The Korea Times, 2024, “Opposition leader attends court hearing on corruption charges on eve of elections”, April 9, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_372349.html (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[13] Tae-jun Kang, 2019, “South Korea Divided Over Nomination of Controversial Justice Minister”, The Diplomat, September 14, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/09/south-korea-divided-over-nomination-of-controversial-justice-minister/ (Accessed 23 April 2024)
[14] Kim Tong-hyung, 2023, “S. Korean court sentences ex-minister to 2 years in prison”, AP News, February 3, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/moon-jae-in-seoul-prisons-ab52af766f17c610e083710d12aba456 (Accessed 23 April 2024)
[15] Victor Cha, Jinwan Park, and Andy Lim, 2024, “South Korea’s 2024 General Election: Results and Implications”, April 10, 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/south-koreas-2024-general-election-results-and-implications (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[16] Lee Hyo-jin, 2024, “Main opposition secures large majority in elections, crushes ruling party”, April 12, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_372467.html (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[17] The Korea Herald, 2024, “Saenuri Party loses Assembly majority”, April 13, 2016, https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160413000611 (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[18] Justin McCurry, 2020, “South Korea's ruling party wins election landslide amid coronavirus outbreak”, The Guardian, April 16, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/south-koreas-ruling-party-wins-election-landslide-amid-coronavirus-outbreak (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[19] Victor Cha, Jinwan Park, and Andy Lim, 2024, “South Korea’s 2024 General Election: Results and Implications”, April 10, 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/south-koreas-2024-general-election-results-and-implications (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[20] The Korea Times, 2024, “Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho puts forward 10 demands for Yoon to follow after general elections”, April 22, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_373222.html (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[21] Choi Jeong-yoon, 2024, “Watered-down medical school quota unsettles student, parents in South Korea”, Asia News Network, April 22, 2024, https://asianews.network/watered-down-medical-school-quota-unsettles-student-parents-in-south-korea/ (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[22] The Korea Times, 2024, “Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho puts forward 10 demands for Yoon to follow after general elections”, April 22, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_373222.html (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[23] Mitch Shin, 2024, “In South Korea, President Yoon’s Lame Duck Era Officially Begins”, April 11, 2024, https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/in-south-korea-president-yoons-lame-duck-era-officially-begins/ (Accessed 16 April 2024)
[24] Nam Hyun-woo, 2024, “Who will be Yoon's pick for next prime minister?”, The Korea Times, April 12, 2024, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/113_372568.html (Accessed 17 April 2024)
[25] Son Ji-hyoung, 2024, “Yoon vows to remove hurdle for housing redevelopment projects”, The Korea Herald, January 10, 2024, https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20240110000619 (Accessed 17 April 2024)
[26] Korea JoongAng Daily, 2024, “Yoon Suk Yeol pledges balanced regional development with Busan bill”, February 13, 2024, https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-02-13/business/economy/Yoon-Suk-Yeol-pledges-balanced-regional-development-with-Busan-bill/1979807 (Accessed 17 April 2024)
[27] Hyung-jin Kim And Kim Tong-hyung, 2024, “South Korea election issues: Green onions, striking doctors, an alleged sexist jab at a candidate”, April 5, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-parliamentary-elections-8ac15e82dacaff19f3c54197fe6d9b9b (Accessed 17 April 2024)
[28] Yonhap News Agency, “Yoon calls for future-oriented approach to S. Korea-Japan relations,” March 28, 2022, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220328002951315 (Accessed 18 April 2024)
[29] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, n.d., “Background and Position of the Government of Japan
Concerning the issue of former civilian workers from the Korean Peninsula”, https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000499948.pdf (Accessed 18 April 2024)
[30] Julian Ryall, 2024, “South Korea eyes new Japan pact to mark 60 years of ties, but can it cement improving relations?”, March 19, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3255867/south-korea-eyes-new-japan-pact-mark-60-years-ties-can-it-cement-improving-relations (Accessed 19 April 2024)
[31] Bae Hyun-jung, 2017, “Full text of Moon's speech at the Korber Foundation”, The Korea Herald, July 7, 2017, https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170707000032 (Accessed 25 April 2024)
[32] Chung-in Moon, 2019, “President Moon Jae-in and the Korea Peace Initiative”, Global Asia, Vol 14 (2), https://www.globalasia.org/v14no2/cover/president-moon-jae-in-and-the-korea-peace-initiative_chung-in-moon (Accessed 25 April 2024)
[33] Kim Soo-yeon, 2024, “N.K. leader calls for defining S. Korea as 'invariable principal enemy' in constitution”, Yonhap News Agency, January 16, 2024, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240116000601315?section=nk/nk (Accessed 19 April 2024)
[34] Jong Eun Lee, 2024, “South Korean President Yoon faces foreign policy challenges after the National Assembly election”, The Conversation, April 19, 2024, https://theconversation.com/south-korean-president-yoon-faces-foreign-policy-challenges-after-the-national-assembly-election-227650 (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[35] KBS World, 2024, “DP Chief Lee's 'Xie Xie' Comment Sparks Controversy”, March 28, 2024, https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=184519 (Accessed 22 April 2024)
[36] KBS World, 2024, “DP Chief Lee's 'Xie Xie' Comment Sparks Controversy”, March 28, 2024, https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=184519 (Accessed 22 April 2024)